We last looked at EUR/CHF when bears seemed fully in control, but subsequent action has suggested that that tide is on the wane, with the first positive indication recently seen. The current pullback could prove temporary, with a fresh attempt on the upside to come.

The FX Specialist view

WEEKLY CHART

Recovery prompted by the long term bear channel base exceeded the 23.6% retracement (of the downmove from Dec-08 1.5881 high), but so far has shied away from higher 1.3955 38.2% level.

The recent key reversal week marked the start of a period of correction, but this resumed temporary (see below).

DAILY CHART:

The earlier breach of the bear channel top projection suggested that bears’ momentum had weakened, with the current correction phase viewed as temporary.

We currently focus on the 1.3070/1.3015 area, early Jun low and 76.4% pullback, where support looks likely.

However, a recovery through the 1.3834 01-Nov high is needed to give bulls further confidence.

At this stage any speculative buyers near the 1.3070/15 support would need initial stops below the 1.2763 08-Sep low.

Mark Sturdy
John Lewis

Seven Days Ahead
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