Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Stock Markets and the History Chart of the End of the World (With Presidential Cycles) - 28th Aug 20
2.Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook... AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels and Valuations Q3 2020 - 31st Aug 20
3.The Inflation Mega-trend is Going Hyper! - 11th Sep 20
4.Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
5.What's Driving Gold, Silver and What's Next? - 3rd Sep 20
6.QE4EVER! - 9th Sep 20
7.Gold Price Trend Forecast Analysis - Part1 - 7th Sep 20
8.The Fed May “Cause” The Next Stock Market Crash - 3rd Sep 20
9.Bitcoin Price Crash - You Will be Suprised What Happens Next - 7th Sep 20
10.NVIDIA Stock Price Soars on RTX 3000 Cornering the GPU Market for next 2 years! - 3rd Sep 20
Last 7 days
Further Gold Price Pressure as the USDX Is About to Rally - 23rd Oct 20
Nasdaq Retests 11,735 Support - 23rd Oct 20
America’s Political and Financial Institutions Are Broken - 23rd Oct 20
Sayonara U.S.A. - 23rd Oct 20
Economic Contractions Overshadow ASEAN-6 Recovery - 23rd Oct 20
Doji Clusters Show Clear Support Ranges for Stock Market S&P500 Index - 23rd Oct 20
Silver Market - 22nd Oct 20
Goldman Sachs Likes Silver; Trump Wants Even More Stimulus - 22nd Oct 20
Hacking Wall Street to Close the Wealth Gap - 22nd Oct 20
Natural Gas/UNG Stepping GAP Patterns Suggest Pending Upside Breakout - 22nd Oct 20 -
NVIDIA CANCELS RTX 3070 16b RTX 3080 20gb GPU's Due to GDDR6X Memory Supply Issues - 22nd Oct 20
Zafira B Leaking Water Under Car - 22nd Oct 20
The Copper/Gold Ratio Would Change the Macro - 21st Oct 20
Are We Entering Stagflation That Will Boost Gold Price - 21st Oct 20
Crude Oil Price Stalls In Resistance Zone - 21st Oct 20
High-Profile Billionaire Gives Urgent Message to Stock Investors - 21st Oct 20
What's it Like to be a Budgie - Unique in a Cage 4K VR 360 - 21st Oct 20
Auto Trading: A Beginner Guide to Automation in Forex - 21st Oct 20
Gold Price Trend Forecast into 2021, Is Intel Dying?, Can Trump Win 2020? - 20th Oct 20
Gold Asks Where Is The Inflation - 20th Oct 20
Last Chance for this FREE Online Trading Course Worth $129 value - 20th Oct 20
More Short-term Stock Market Weakness Ahead - 20th Oct 20
Dell S3220DGF 32 Inch Curved Gaming Monitor Unboxing and Stand Assembly and Range of Movement - 20th Oct 20
Best Retail POS Software In Australia - 20th Oct 20
From Recession to an Ever-Deeper One - 19th Oct 20
Wales Closes Border With England, Stranded Motorists on Severn Bridge? Covid-19 Police Road Blocks - 19th Oct 20
Commodity Bull Market Cycle Starts with Euro and Dollar Trend Changes - 19th Oct 20
Stock Market Melt-Up Triggered a Short Squeeze In The NASDAQ and a Utilities Breakout - 19th Oct 20
Silver is Like Gold on Steroids - 19th Oct 20
Countdown to Election Mediocrity: Why Gold and Silver Can Protect Your Wealth - 19th Oct 20
“Hypergrowth” Is Spilling Into the Stock Market Like Never Before - 19th Oct 20
Is Oculus Quest 2 Good Upgrade for Samsung Gear VR Users? - 19th Oct 20
Low US Dollar Risky for Gold - 17th Oct 20
US 2020 Election: Are American's ready for Trump 2nd Term Twilight Zone Presidency? - 17th Oct 20
Custom Ryzen 5950x, 5900x, 5800x , RTX 3080, 3070 64gb DDR4 Gaming PC System Build Specs - 17th Oct 20
Gold Jumps above $1,900 Again - 16th Oct 20
US Economic Recovery Is in Need of Some Rescue - 16th Oct 20
Why You Should Focus on Growth Stocks Today - 16th Oct 20
Why Now is BEST Time to Upgrade Your PC System for Years - Ryzen 5000 CPUs, Nvidia RTX 3000 GPU's - 16th Oct 20
Beware of Trump’s October (November?) Election Surprise - 15th Oct 20
Stock Market SPY Retesting Critical Resistance From Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arc - 15th Oct 20
Fed Chairman Begs Congress to Stimulate Beleaguered US Economy - 15th Oct 20
Is Gold Market Going Back Into the 1970s? - 15th Oct 20
Things you Should know before Trade Cryptos - 15th Oct 20
Gold and Silver Price Ready For Another Rally Attempt - 14th Oct 20
Do Low Interest Rates Mean Higher Stocks? Not so Fast… - 14th Oct 20
US Debt Is Going Up but Leaving GDP Behind - 14th Oct 20
Dell S3220DGF 31.5 Inch VA Gaming Monitor Amazon Prime Day Bargain Price! But WIll it Get Delivered? - 14th Oct 20
Karcher K7 Pressure Washer Amazon Prime Day Bargain 51% Discount! - 14th Oct 20
Top Strategies Day Traders Adopt - 14th Oct 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Get Rich Investing in Stocks by Riding the Electron Wave

Gold Three Month Consolidation May Be Over

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010 Dec 29, 2010 - 02:27 PM GMT

By: Jeb_Handwerger

Commodities

One of the most interesting realizations I have gained from studying the financial markets is that success comes from developing a clear set of rules and sticking to them despite the current psychology and tenor of the market.  Contrary to popular opinion being successful in the market is not based on how smart you are or what university one attended, it is sticking to your discipline and following a methodology. 


           One person who has greatly influenced me is Jesse Livermore.   Jesse grew up very poor and didn’t have a formal education like most of the fund managers today.  He was extremely disciplined and developed a rules based methodology, which made him one of the most successful traders of his time.  One of his famous teachings is the smarter one is, the easier it is for the market to fool you.  Many times the market does the exact opposite of what the economists and the pundints predict.  Jesse learned a simple method to learn how to follow a trend and monitor price volume which helped him surpass the top traders of the time.  However, Jesse Livermore committed suicide and in the note left behind he considered himself a failure for not sticking to his own rules.

           The recent sub-prime debacle and the 2008 market crash shows that the smartest academicians had absolutely no grasp of the dire situation that was at hand and continued to recommend the “buy and hold” doctrine.  The Federal Reserve themselves were not admitting we were in a recession until many investors suffered a major loss.  Meanwhile, behind the scenes institutional investors were trading the volatility and making huge profits on the short side as technicals gave clear sell signals and shorting opportunities during the downtrend.  The professional traders and institutions don’t subscribe to the “buy and hold” methodology even though they market it to the ill-informed public.  Institutions and hedge funds go long and short and move to cash when conditions warrant it. 

           Using a basic set of technical rules and reviewing market tops a technical trader can be able to prevent a major loss and wait for less risky opportunities to capitalize and increase gains. 

           Since October the gold etf (GLD) had three failures at upper resistance and has not been able to make a major move into new highs.  In early October, I warned of a major rally in the dollar and a rise in interest rates much to the dismay of market “experts” who were expecting QE2 to devalue the dollar and keep bond prices high.  The exact opposite occurred.  Bond prices plummeted, the US dollar rallied and gold has been rangebound.  My mining recommendations in precious metals, uraniums, molybdenum and rare earths have significantly outperformed.   

           On Christmas Day much to the dismay the Chinese central banks raised interest rates for the second time since October.  I expected it at their last meeting on December 13th.  As I wrote after the last meeting that the pause was due to the holiday season and mentioned to wait until after the holidays to wait for a hike.  Obviously, their decision to surprise the markets on Christmas Day signals the urgency of their efforts to curb irrational speculation, rising prices and commodity costs.    The Chinese also cut rare earth exports which is causing a major increase in these mining shares.  I expect them in 2011 to further look for natural resources abroad to further fuel their growth and demand.  This last rate hike was looked upon by the markets as weak and commodities have skyrocketed since the announcement. 

Please check out my blog and free newsletter at http://goldstocktrades.com where I post up to the minute observations.

By Jeb Handwerger

http://goldstocktrades.com

© 2010 Copyright Jeb Handwerger- All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules