The hourly chart of the Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners (GDXJ) has two powerful aspects to it. One is that the base-like accumulation pattern that developed between early Jan and late Feb has propelled prices above its key breakout plateau at 38.50. This triggers potential upside targets at 42.50 and then 44.40.

The other is that the series of higher-lows and higher-highs off of the Jan 27 low at 32.51 suggests strongly that the most recent "higher-low" at 36.73 from Feb 24 initiated a new, powerful upleg. The magnitude of this should approximate the length of the upleg from 32.51 to 39.96.

Should that be the case, then the current upleg has a "swing" target of 7.45 points, or to 44.00/20, which aligns with the upper target measured from the breakout from the base pattern. At this juncture, only a decline that breaks 38.00-37.80 will compromise the timing of the anticipated surge, while a break of the Feb 24 low at 36.73 will invalidate the bullish scenario altogether.

By Mike Paulenoff

Mike Paulenoff is author of MPTrader.com (www.mptrader.com), a real-time diary of his technical analysis and trading alerts on ETFs covering metals, energy, equity indices, currencies, Treasuries, and specific industries and international regions.

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