Let's notice that today's action in the emini S&P 500 initially climbed above yesterday's high at 1356.50 (to 1358.25), but then reversed sharply into a nosedive that so far has pressed to 1334.75, which is 4.25 points below yesterday's low.

The net result from a technical perspective is the potential for a key downside reversal day in the e-SPM (contingent upon a close beneath 1339). Such a signal will indicate strongly that the rally off of last Thursday's low at 1325.25 into this morning's recovery high at 1358.25 was a countertrend rally within a larger corrective process that should break the rising 20 DMA (1335) and the prior low at 1325.25, on the way to a test of the lower BBnd line, now at 1300.

Without a doubt, we must raise our antennae for a nasty near-term bearish signal into today's close. That is, if it develops, as so often weakness in this market has turned on a dime right at the breakdown point..

By Mike Paulenoff

Mike Paulenoff is author of MPTrader.com (www.mptrader.com), a real-time diary of his technical analysis and trading alerts on ETFs covering metals, energy, equity indices, currencies, Treasuries, and specific industries and international regions.

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