Most Popular
1. Banking Crisis is Stocks Bull Market Buying Opportunity - Nadeem_Walayat
2.The Crypto Signal for the Precious Metals Market - P_Radomski_CFA
3. One Possible Outcome to a New World Order - Raymond_Matison
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Apple AAPL Stock Trend and Earnings Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
6.AI, Stocks, and Gold Stocks – Connected After All - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Stock Market CHEAT SHEET - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.US Debt Ceiling Crisis Smoke and Mirrors Circus - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Silver Price May Explode - Avi_Gilburt
10.More US Banks Could Collapse -- A Lot More- EWI
Last 7 days
Stock Market Volatility (VIX) - 25th Mar 24
Stock Market Investor Sentiment - 25th Mar 24
The Federal Reserve Didn't Do Anything But It Had Plenty to Say - 25th Mar 24
Stock Market Breadth - 24th Mar 24
Stock Market Margin Debt Indicator - 24th Mar 24
It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - 24th Mar 24
Stocks: What to Make of All This Insider Selling- 24th Mar 24
Money Supply Continues To Fall, Economy Worsens – Investors Don’t Care - 24th Mar 24
Get an Edge in the Crypto Market with Order Flow - 24th Mar 24
US Presidential Election Cycle and Recessions - 18th Mar 24
US Recession Already Happened in 2022! - 18th Mar 24
AI can now remember everything you say - 18th Mar 24
Bitcoin Crypto Mania 2024 - MicroStrategy MSTR Blow off Top! - 14th Mar 24
Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - 11th Mar 24
Gold and the Long-Term Inflation Cycle - 11th Mar 24
Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - 11th Mar 24
Two Reasons The Fed Manipulates Interest Rates - 11th Mar 24
US Dollar Trend 2024 - 9th Mar 2024
The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - 9th Mar 2024
Investors Don’t Believe the Gold Rally, Still Prefer General Stocks - 9th Mar 2024
Paper Gold Vs. Real Gold: It's Important to Know the Difference - 9th Mar 2024
Stocks: What This "Record Extreme" Indicator May Be Signaling - 9th Mar 2024
My 3 Favorite Trade Setups - Elliott Wave Course - 9th Mar 2024
Bitcoin Crypto Bubble Mania! - 4th Mar 2024
US Interest Rates - When WIll the Fed Pivot - 1st Mar 2024
S&P Stock Market Real Earnings Yield - 29th Feb 2024
US Unemployment is a Fake Statistic - 29th Feb 2024
U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - 29th Feb 2024
What a Breakdown in Silver Mining Stocks! What an Opportunity! - 29th Feb 2024
Why AI will Soon become SA - Synthetic Intelligence - The Machine Learning Megatrend - 29th Feb 2024
Keep Calm and Carry on Buying Quantum AI Tech Stocks - 19th Feb 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Gold in a Deflationary Economic Period

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011 Jul 20, 2011 - 03:33 PM GMT

By: Ian_R_Campbell

Commodities

I suggest you read and think about what is said in a recent article: 'How gold performs in deflation' - reading time 4 minutes - thinking time longer. On its face, the article suggests that physical gold benefits in periods of both hyper-inflation and hyper-deflation, and when reaching that conclusion implies (at least as I read the article) that the price of physical gold is likely to rise under either scenario.


From the extensive reading, thinking, and writing I have done on the subject of physical gold over the past four years, my overview conclusion is that the author of the article is right if what he is saying is that history suggests holders of physical gold are benefited in periods of both hyper-inflation and hyper-deflation, but wrong if he thinks it is certain that the price of physical gold will increase in both scenarios. From my perspective, the correct way to explain the advantage to holders of physical gold in both scenarios is to link physical gold and 'purchasing power', not physical gold and 'the price of physical gold'. To me, physical gold is nothing more or less than 'real money' which over time retains its purchasing power - that is, if an ounce of gold would buy a suit in 1870, it ought to buy a suit of that same quality in 2011. Timing differences may result in an imperfect equation, but over time that equation should, on average, come 'into balance'. Stated differently, where there is inflation I would expect the price of physical gold to trend higher - and much higher if there was hyper-inflation. Conversely, where there is deflation I would expect the price of physical gold to trend downward, and trend more significantly downward if there was hyper-deflation.

The article also references the Kondratieff Wave, something I have trouble pronouncing, and even more trouble assigning any credibility to. As I understand Kondratieff Wave theorists, they believe (depending on which of them you read or listen to) that there is a repetitive 60 or 120 year economic cycle that suggests whether at a given point in time the world is in the Spring, Summer, Fall or Winter of a cycle. Needless to say, Kondratieff Wave theorists commonly report (the referenced article is no exception) that currently the world is in the Winter phase of the Wave. Think of that concept from 10,000 feet. Think first of the 120 year cycle theory in the context of what the world was like 120 years ago and what changes that materially affected (and continue to affect) economic changes and advancement have occurred in the past 120 years. For example, and certainly not all-inclusive:

  • 1890 - the industrial revolution was ongoing. Most economies were largely agrarian, and locally based. Edison and others enabled commercialization of electricity about that time. Alexander Graham Bell invented the telephone. Henry Ford had not yet commercialized the automobile;

  • 1910 - the Wright Brothers first flew their airplane successfully shortly before 1910. By then Henry Ford's assembly lines were producing Model T's, and Massey, Harris and others were manufacturing mechanized agricultural equipment;

  • 1930 - by 1930 the radio had been invented;

  • 1950 - by 1950 the television had been invented. Penicillin had been discovered, and serious medical advances were beginning. Developed country economies were integrated and trade among nations was growing apace;

  • 1970 - early computers that individually filled rooms were operating commercially. The first hand-held calculator was being sold. The U.S. had put men on the Moon, and continuous improvements had been, and were being, made to all of the foregoing devices and machines. By 1970 medical advances were escalating, and continued to escalate thereafter. A year later U.S. President Nixon (stated simplistically) took America off the gold standard, and a new age of fiat currency with the American dollar as the World Reserve Currency was born;

  • 1990 - the computer had been miniaturized to the point one could sit on a desk, and each year new, more powerful, and smaller computers were being built. The Internet was in its infancy. So-called economic globalization was both being discussed and developing; and,

  • 2010 - economic globalization had developed to the point where it had changed the way 'business was done', manufacturing labour moved to the 'lowest pay' zones. Computers had enabled smart people to take advantage of poor financial regulation in many of the developed countries, most notably the United States.

The foregoing is but a very brief synopsis of only some of the important developments that fundamentally changed how people do business, the basis of currencies, the length of time people live, their expectations, their productivity, their mobility, their knowledge base and 'time of exposure to news', and so on. In the previous 120 years (1770 - 1890) things indeed changed, but not nearly so rapidly and without nearly so much 'real change'.

All of this causes me to conclude that if you want to believe in Long-Wave economic theories that is, of course, your prerogative. They make no sense to me as something to rely on in any way or manner, much less base an investment strategy on them. I invite disagreement (with sound reasoning that takes 'fundamental change' over time into account) at info@stockresearchportal.com.

About Ian R. Campbell

Ian R. Campbell, FCA, FCBV, is a recognized Canadian business valuation authority who shares his perspective about the economy, mining and the oil & gas industry on each trading day. Ian is also the founder of Stock Research Portal, which provides stock market data, analysis and research on over 1,600 Mining and Oil & Gas Companies listed on the Toronto and Venture Exchanges. Ian can be contacted at icampbell@srddi.com

© 2011 Copyright Ian R. Campbell - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in