Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
Peloton 35% CRASH a Lesson of What Happens When One Over Pays for a Loss Making Growth Stock - 1st Dec 21
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: I Fear For Retirees For The Next 20 Years - 1st Dec 21 t
Will the Anointed Finanical Experts Get It Wrong Again? - 1st Dec 21
Main Differences Between the UK and Canadian Gaming Markets - 1st Dec 21
Bitcoin Price TRIGGER for Accumulating Into Alt Coins for 2022 Price Explosion - 30th Nov 21
Omicron Covid Wave 4 Impact on Financial Markets - 30th Nov 21
Can You Hear It? That’s the Crowd Booing Gold’s Downturn - 30th Nov 21
Economic and Market Impacts of Omicron Strain Covid 4th Wave - 30th Nov 21
Stock Market Historical Trends Suggest A Strengthening Bullish Trend In December - 30th Nov 21
Crypto Market Analysis: What Trading Will Look Like in 2022 for Novice and Veteran Traders? - 30th Nov 21
Best Stocks for Investing to Profit form the Metaverse and Get Rich - 29th Nov 21
Should You Invest In Real Estate In 2021? - 29th Nov 21
Silver Long-term Trend Analysis - 28th Nov 21
Silver Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 28th Nov 21
Crude Oil Didn’t Like Thanksgiving Turkey This Year - 28th Nov 21
Sheffield First Snow Winter 2021 - Snowballs and Snowmen Fun - 28th Nov 21
Stock Market Investing LESSON - Buying Value - 27th Nov 21
Corsair MP600 NVME M.2 SSD 66% Performance Loss After 6 Months of Use - Benchmark Tests - 27th Nov 21
Stock Maket Trading Lesson - How to REALLY Trade Markets - 26th Nov 21
SILVER Price Trend Analysis - 26th Nov 21
Federal Reserve Asks Americans to Eat Soy “Meat” for Thanksgiving - 26th Nov 21
Is the S&P 500 Topping or Just Consolidating? - 26th Nov 21
Is a Bigger Drop in Gold Price Just Around the Corner? - 26th Nov 21
Financial Stocks ETF Sector XLF Pullback Sets Up A New $43.60 Upside Target - 26th Nov 21
A Couple of Things to Think About Before Buying Shares - 25th Nov 21
UK Best Fixed Rate Tariff Deal is to NOT FIX Gas and Electric Energy Tariffs During Winter 2021-22 - 25th Nov 21
Stock Market Begins it's Year End Seasonal Santa Rally - 24th Nov 21
How Silver Can Conquer $50+ in 2022 - 24th Nov 21
Stock Market Betting on Hawkish Fed - 24th Nov 21
Stock Market Elliott Wave Trend Forecast - 24th Nov 21
Your once-a-year All-Access Financial Markets Analysis Pass - 24th Nov 21
Did Zillow’s $300 million flop prove me wrong? - 24th Nov 21
Now Malaysian Drivers Renew Their Kurnia Car Insurance Online With Fincrew.my - 24th Nov 21
Gold / Silver Ratio - 23rd Nov 21
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Can We Get To 5500SPX In 2022? But 4440SPX Comes First - 23rd Nov 21
A Month-to-month breakdown of how Much Money Individuals are Spending on Stocks - 23rd Nov 21
S&P 500: Rallying Tech Stocks vs. Plummeting Oil Stocks - 23rd Nov 21
Like the Latest Bond Flick, the US Dollar Has No Time to Die - 23rd Nov 21
Why BITCOIN NEW ALL TIME HIGH Changes EVERYTHING! - 22nd Nov 21
Cannabis ETF MJ Basing & Volatility Patterns - 22nd Nov 21
The Most Important Lesson Learned from this COVID Pandemic - 22nd Nov 21
Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis - 22nd Nov 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Curtains for the Silver Bull Market?

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011 Dec 18, 2011 - 12:14 PM GMT

By: Clive_Maund

Commodities

Some weeks ago in a Silver Market update we had noted that a large potential Head-and-Shoulders top area was completing in silver, but we got "thrown off the scent" by the positive Accum-Distrib line (now rapidly reversing) and the seemingly strongly bullish COT structure. In the light of the severe bearish breakdown by stocks indices last week this potential H&S top is now viewed as legitimate. Silver held up remarkably well last week considering what happened to gold, which is a straw that silver bulls are now clutching on to as evidence that silver is still in a bullmarket, but the reason that it held up so well is that it is close to a zone of strong support towards the lower boundary of the H&S top area. Once this support fails it's "curtains" for silver which can be expected to plunge into the high teens.


The Head-and-Shoulders top is shown on the 3-year chart for silver shown below. On this chart we can also observe various other bearish factors that are now coming into play. One is that silver has been trading way below its 200-day moving average since the September plunge, and this indicator is now rolling over and about to turn down, which will put the price and its moving averages in nerarish alignment for the first time since 2008. Another important bearish factor is that that the MACD momentum indicator shown at the bottom of the chart is now in an established downtrend, and with it now showing an only moderately oversold reading there is plenty of scope for further heavy losses going forward.

Silver 3-Year Chart

The 6-month chart for silver shows recent action in more detail, in particular last week's breakdown from what we can now see was a Head-and-Shoulders continuation pattern, which interestingly forms the Right Shoulder of the much larger Head-and-Shoulders top shown on the 3-year chart above. Some eagle-eyed subscribers pointed this out to me ahead of the breakdown, but fooled by the COT, I did not take it seriously enough. With regards to the COT, if it is not at historically bullish readings, how can silver drop? The answer to that is simple - the further it drops the more bullish the COTs are likely to become, and there is no law against the Commercials going net long one day - now that would be a sight to see.

Silver 6-Month Chart

By Clive Maund
CliveMaund.com

For billing & subscription questions: subscriptions@clivemaund.com

© 2011 Clive Maund - The above represents the opinion and analysis of Mr. Maund, based on data available to him, at the time of writing. Mr. Maunds opinions are his own, and are not a recommendation or an offer to buy or sell securities. No responsibility can be accepted for losses that may result as a consequence of trading on the basis of this analysis.

Mr. Maund is an independent analyst who receives no compensation of any kind from any groups, individuals or corporations mentioned in his reports. As trading and investing in any financial markets may involve serious risk of loss, Mr. Maund recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction and do your own due diligence and research when making any kind of a transaction with financial ramifications.

Clive Maund Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

JM
18 Dec 11, 16:33
Silver

I've been following hus articles for the last several months. One minute he's prediting silver will shoot up to the moon, the next it's going to collapse. The fact is, he has no idea, like most of us. if you don't believe me, have a look at he's previouse articles. Only a week or two ago he was predicting a major rally!!


nathan Davis
19 Dec 11, 03:06
silver

I agree with JM and have been reading clives predictions for a few years and he is almost always wrong, might as well toss a dice.


TBB
19 Dec 11, 11:05
Silver

It wasn't that long ago, maybe several months, that the majority of articles on silver were calling for new highs by the end of this year 2011. Last time I checked silver isn't anywhere near new highs and there is only 10 days or so left in the year.


Nadeem_Walayat
19 Dec 11, 11:49
Silver

My last analysis of Silver - 15 May 2011 - Silver Crash 2011 Probably Not Over


faith
19 Dec 11, 15:53
silver

there is nothing new for those commentators. Silver is a solid investment and it will not disappear nor bankrupt. There will be more paper notes and less silver in the future for sure regard the price they munipulated.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in