Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
Stock Market Investing LESSON - Buying Value - 27th Nov 21
Corsair MP600 NVME M.2 SSD 66% Performance Loss After 6 Months of Use - Benchmark Tests - 27th Nov 21
Stock Maket Trading Lesson - How to REALLY Trade Markets - 26th Nov 21
SILVER Price Trend Analysis - 26th Nov 21
Federal Reserve Asks Americans to Eat Soy “Meat” for Thanksgiving - 26th Nov 21
Is the S&P 500 Topping or Just Consolidating? - 26th Nov 21
Is a Bigger Drop in Gold Price Just Around the Corner? - 26th Nov 21
Financial Stocks ETF Sector XLF Pullback Sets Up A New $43.60 Upside Target - 26th Nov 21
A Couple of Things to Think About Before Buying Shares - 25th Nov 21
UK Best Fixed Rate Tariff Deal is to NOT FIX Gas and Electric Energy Tariffs During Winter 2021-22 - 25th Nov 21
Stock Market Begins it's Year End Seasonal Santa Rally - 24th Nov 21
How Silver Can Conquer $50+ in 2022 - 24th Nov 21
Stock Market Betting on Hawkish Fed - 24th Nov 21
Stock Market Elliott Wave Trend Forecast - 24th Nov 21
Your once-a-year All-Access Financial Markets Analysis Pass - 24th Nov 21
Did Zillow’s $300 million flop prove me wrong? - 24th Nov 21
Now Malaysian Drivers Renew Their Kurnia Car Insurance Online With Fincrew.my - 24th Nov 21
Gold / Silver Ratio - 23rd Nov 21
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Can We Get To 5500SPX In 2022? But 4440SPX Comes First - 23rd Nov 21
A Month-to-month breakdown of how Much Money Individuals are Spending on Stocks - 23rd Nov 21
S&P 500: Rallying Tech Stocks vs. Plummeting Oil Stocks - 23rd Nov 21
Like the Latest Bond Flick, the US Dollar Has No Time to Die - 23rd Nov 21
Why BITCOIN NEW ALL TIME HIGH Changes EVERYTHING! - 22nd Nov 21
Cannabis ETF MJ Basing & Volatility Patterns - 22nd Nov 21
The Most Important Lesson Learned from this COVID Pandemic - 22nd Nov 21
Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis - 22nd Nov 21
UK Covid-19 Booster Jabs Moderna, Pfizer Are They Worth the Risk of Side effects, Illness? - 22nd Nov 21
US Dollar vs Yields vs Stock Market Trends - 20th Nov 21
Inflation Risk: Milton Friedman Would Buy Gold Right Now - 20th Nov 21
How to Determine if It’s Time for You to Outsource Your Packaging Requirements to a Contract Packer - 20th Nov 21
2 easy ways to play Facebook’s Metaverse Spending Spree - 20th Nov 21
Stock Market Margin Debt WARNING! - 19th Nov 21
Gold Mid-Tier Stocks Q3’21 Fundamentals - 19th Nov 21
Protect Your Wealth From PERMANENT Transitory Inflation - 19th Nov 21
Investors Expect High Inflation. Golden Inquisition Ahead? - 19th Nov 21
Will the Senate Confirm a Marxist to Oversee the U.S. Currency System? - 19th Nov 21
When Even Stock Market Bears Act Bullishly (What It May Mean) - 19th Nov 21
Chinese People do NOT Eat Dogs Newspeak - 18th Nov 21
CHINOBLE! Evergrande Reality Exposes China Fiction! - 18th Nov 21
Kondratieff Full-Season Stock Market Sector Rotation - 18th Nov 21
What Stock Market Trends Will Drive Through To 2022? - 18th Nov 21
How to Jump Start Your Motherboard Without a Power Button With Just a Screwdriver - 18th Nov 21
Bitcoin & Ethereum 2021 Trend - 18th Nov 21
FREE TRADE How to Get 2 FREE SHARES Fractional Investing Platform and ISA Specs - 18th Nov 21
Inflation Ain’t Transitory – But the Fed’s Credibility Is - 18th Nov 21
The real reason Facebook just went “all in” on the metaverse - 18th Nov 21
Biden Signs a Bill to Revive Infrastructure… and Gold! - 18th Nov 21
Silver vs US Dollar - 17th Nov 21
Silver Supply and Demand Balance - 17th Nov 21
Sentiment Speaks: This Stock Market Makes Absolutely No Sense - 17th Nov 21
Biden Spending to Build Back Stagflation - 17th Nov 21
Meshing Cryptocurrency Wealth Generation With Global Fiat Money Demise - 17th Nov 21
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Into Mid 2022 - 16th Nov 21
Stock Market Minor Cycle Correcting - 16th Nov 21
The INFLATION MEGA-TREND - Ripples of Deflation on an Ocean of Inflation! - 16th Nov 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Gold Downtrend Looks Like the Direction Ahead, Projections for 2012

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011 Dec 18, 2011 - 12:53 PM GMT

By: Merv_Burak

Commodities

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleOuch, that hurts.  I could see a negative move in the works but I don’t think anyone expected a plunge like this past week.  Friday upside move was very unimpressive so, although we might get a bounce here, the downside still looks like the direction ahead.


Predictions

Back in 1981 stock market Guru Joseph Granville sent out an urgent Early Warning to his subscribers to SELL, SELL.  Markets around the world immediately (within hours) took a severe plunge with the NYSE having its heaviest volume sell-off in history.

Fast forward to this week, Dennis Gartman predicted gold would go to $1475 and bang, he is credited (?) with this week’s gold decline (I think I made a similar prediction (?) about 2 ½ months ago).  Timing is everything.

GOLD

LONG TERM

A look at my long term P&F chart shows the following, based upon action to the Friday close.  A long term bear projection to $1400 during the Sept. move through the $1700 mark.  Following a failed rally and lower top the P&F gave a more recent prediction to the $1500 level on its move through $1600 a little over a week ago.  Unfortunately, a move to $1525 would trigger two more projections, one to the $1150 level and one to the $800 level.  So, we have possible projections all over the place.  A technician’s dream.  Whichever projection is met I can then say I told you so.  Of course most readers would have forgotten all the other projections that may not have been met.  Stock market memories are a short term thing.

Trend:   Back to reality.  This week’s action has taken gold below its long term moving average line and the line has just turned to the down side.

Strength:   The long term momentum indicator stopped just short of breaking below its neutral line and finished the week just above the neutral line in its positive zone.  It is, however, below its negative sloping trigger line.

Volume:   The volume indicator has dropped below recent lows and heading lower.  It is below its negative sloping trigger line.

At the Friday close the long term rating is now BEARISH.  The short term moving average line has moved below the long term moving average line for the first time since Dec of 2008.  I don’t use this as a confirmation indication but it is significant.

INTERMEDIATE TERM

I guess one can guess that the intermediate term does not look so good.  There seems to be nothing in the indicators to be encouraged about.

Trend:   Gold is now well below its intermediate term moving average line and the line slope is now well pointed in the downward direction.

Strength:   The intermediate term momentum indicator has now dropped below its neutral line and is at its lowest level in the negative zone since its highs of a few months back.  It is also below its negatively sloping trigger line.

Volume:   As with the long term the volume indicator is moving ever lower below its negative sloping trigger line.

At the Friday close the intermediate term rating is BEARISH.  This rating is confirmed by the short term moving average line having moved below the intermediate term line.

SHORT TERM

On a closing basis we are now below the Sept low but not on an intra day basis.  We have a little more to go to make that a new low.

Trend:   No confusion here, gold is below its short term moving average line and the line slope is to the down side.

Strength:  The short term momentum indicator remains in its negative zone below its negative trigger line.  It is, however, attempting to bounce up above the line but has not quite made it yet.

Volume:   The daily volume action remains pessimistic.  The highest volume during the week was on the Wednesday plunge while the lowest volume day was on the Friday up day.  Not encouraging action.

The short term rating on the Friday close can be nothing other than BEARISH.  This is confirmed by the very short term moving average line moving below the short term line.

As for the immediate direction of least resistance, I’m going with the up side just to be a little optimistic.  The Stochastic Oscillator is in its oversold zone and does look like it wants to reverse to the up side (but not yet).  Friday’s price action just might be the start of a rally, or at least a short bounce.  So, I’ll go with the up side.

SILVER

As with gold silver is now at new closing lows for this phase of its latest bear market but it has not quite made it into new intra day lows.  That will take just a little more down moves.

LONG TERM

Trend:   Silver closed the week below its negative sloping long term moving average line.

Strength:   The long term momentum indicator is in its negative zone and below a negative sloping trigger line.

Volume:    The volume indicator just touched a support level that it has reached a few times now over the past several months and is starting a possible bounce.  In the mean time it is in a downward trend and below its negative sloping long term trigger line.

The long term rating, at the Friday close, remains BEARISH.

INTERMEDIATE TERM

 Trend:   The week’s activities took the silver price further below its intermediate term moving average line and the line slope continues to point downward.

Strength:   The intermediate term momentum indicator remains in its negative zone below its negative sloping trigger line.  There is some possible comfort in that the low this week in the momentum indicator has been slightly higher than its previous low during the Sept plunge.  One might look at this as a gentle positive divergence.

Volume:   Despite a small perk-up at the end of the week the volume indicator remains below its negative sloping trigger line.

The intermediate term rating, at the Friday close, remains BEARISH.  This is confirmed by the short term moving average line moving even further below the intermediate term line.

SHORT TERM

As with the gold price, silver has closed at a new closing low for this bear trend but not quite at a new intra-day low.  That occurred during the Sept plunge.

Trend:   silver remains below its negative sloping short term moving average line.

Strength:   The short term momentum indicator remains in its negative zone below its negative sloping trigger line.  Again, as with gold, the momentum indicator is making a positive divergence suggesting that a rally may be ahead.

Volume:   The daily volume remains very low and unfortunately, especially on the Thursday and Friday up days.

The short term rating, at the Friday close, has moved back into the BEARISH camp.  The very short term moving average line is confirming this bear.

Merv’s Non-Edibles Futures Indices Table

It’s Christmas time so here is wishing all a very Merry Christmas and a very Prosperous New Year.

I’m taking a Holiday so there will be no postings during the Christmas or New Years week-ends.

Well, that’s it for this week.  Comments are always welcome and should be addressed to mervburak@gmail.com.

For weekly information and commentary on gold and silver stock Indices and Merv’s 190 gold and silver stocks please go to the subscribers section at http://preciousmetalscentral.com

Well, that’s it for this week.  Comments are always welcome and should be addressed to mervburak@gmail.com.

By Merv Burak, CMT
Hudson Aero/Systems Inc.
Technical Information Group
for Merv's Precious Metals Central

For DAILY Uranium stock commentary and WEEKLY Uranium market update check out my new Technically Uranium with Merv blog at http://techuranium.blogspot.com .

During the day Merv practices his engineering profession as a Consulting Aerospace Engineer. Once the sun goes down and night descends upon the earth Merv dons his other hat as a Chartered Market Technician ( CMT ) and tries to decipher what's going on in the securities markets. As an underground surveyor in the gold mines of Canada 's Northwest Territories in his youth, Merv has a soft spot for the gold industry and has developed several Gold Indices reflecting different aspects of the industry. As a basically lazy individual Merv's driving focus is to KEEP IT SIMPLE .

To find out more about Merv's various Gold Indices and component stocks, please visit http://preciousmetalscentral.com . There you will find samples of the Indices and their component stocks plus other publications of interest to gold investors.

Before you invest, Always check your market timing with a Qualified Professional Market Technician

Merv Burak Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in