Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. TESLA! Cathy Wood ARK Funds Bubble BURSTS! - 12th May 21
2.Stock Market Entering Early Summer Correction Trend Forecast - 10th May 21
3.GOLD GDX, HUI Stocks - Will Paradise Turn into a Dystopia? - 11th May 21
4.Crypto Bubble Bursts! Nicehash Suspends Coinbase Withdrawals, Bitcoin, Ethereum Bear Market Begins - 16th May 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.Cathy Wood Ark Invest Funds Bubble BURSTS! ARKK, ARKG, Tesla Entering Severe Bear Market - 13th May 21
7.Stock Market - Should You Be In Cash Right Now? - 17th May 21
8.Gold to Benefit from Mounting US Debt Pile - 14th May 21
9.Coronavius Covid-19 in Italy in August 2019! - 13th May 21
10.How to Invest in HIGH RISK Tech Stocks for 2021 and Beyond - Part 2 of 2 - 18th May 21
Last 7 days
Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
Trading Crude Oil ETFs in Foreign Currencies: What to Focus On - 22nd Sep 21
URGENT - Crypto-trader event - 'Bitcoin... back to $65,000?' - 22nd Sep 21
Stock Market Time to Buy the Dip? - 22nd Sep 21
US Dollar Bears Are Fresh Out of Honey Pots - 22nd Sep 21
MetaTrader 5 Features Every Trader Should Know - 22nd Sep 21
Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment, Tip of the Ice Berg in Financial Crisis 2.0 - 21st Sep 21
The Fed Is Playing The Biggest Game Of Chicken In History - 21st Sep 21
Focus on Stock Market Short-term Cycle - 21st Sep 21
Lands End Cornwall In VR360 - UK Holidays, Staycations - 21st Sep 21
Stock Market FOMO Hits September CRASH Brick Wall - Dow Trend Forecast 2021 Review - 20th Sep 21
Two Huge, Overlooked Drains on Global Silver Supplies - 20th Sep 21
Gold gets hammered but Copper fails to seize the moment - 20th Sep 21
New arms race and nuclear risks could spell End to the Asian Century - 20th Sep 21
Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Dow Trend Forecast 2021 Review - 19th Sep 21
Dow Forecasting Neural Nets, Crossing the Rubicon With Three High Risk Chinese Tech Stocks - 18th Sep 21
If Post-1971 Monetary System Is Bad, Why Isn’t Gold Higher? - 18th Sep 21
Stock Market Shaking Off the Taper Blues - 18th Sep 21
So... This Happened! One Crypto Goes From "Little-Known" -to- "Top 10" in 6 Weeks - 18th Sep 21
Why a Financial Markets "Panic" May Be Just Around the Corner - 18th Sep 21
An Update on the End of College… and a New Way to Profit - 16th Sep 21
What Kind of Support and Services Can Your Accountant Provide? Your Main Questions Answered - 16th Sep 21
Consistent performance makes waste a good place to buy stocks - 16th Sep 21
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecasting Neural Nets Pattern Recognition - 15th Sep 21
Eurozone Impact on Gold: The ECB and the Phantom Taper - 15th Sep 21
Fed To Taper into Weakening Economy - 15th Sep 21
Gold Miners: Last of the Summer Wine - 15th Sep 21
How does product development affect a company’s market value? - 15th Sep 21
Types of Investment Property to Become Familiar with - 15th Sep 21
Is This the "Kiss of Death" for the Stocks Bull Market? - 14th Sep 21
Where Are the Stock Market Fireworks? - 14th Sep 21
Play-To-Earn Cryptocurrency Games Gain More and Is Set to Expand - 14th Sep 21
The CashFX TAP Platform - Catering to Bull Investors and Bear Investors Alike - 14th Sep 21
Why every serious investor should be focused on blockchain technology - 13th Sep 21
SPX Base Projection Reached – End of the Line? - 13th Sep 21
There are diverse ways to finance the purchase of a car - 13th Sep 21
6 Tips For Wise Investment - 13th Sep 21 - Mark_Adan

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Another Chance to Sell Common Stocks and Buy Gold and Silver

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2012 Jan 25, 2012 - 06:00 AM GMT

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Commodities

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIt has been a tough last year for precious metals investors but not so much for common stocks. Sure, the Euro crisis benefited Gold initially but as the panic has abated, stocks are rallying back to their highs while Gold has sold off and the gold stocks are trying to hold their lows. What is going on? Are we in the twilight zone?


Bull and bear markets are long lasting, providing ample time for trends and counter trends to continually reappear and redevelop. The long-term activity of precious metals and common stocks is not a mystery. Gold has continued to hit all-time highs while the gold stocks eclipsed and maintain 2008 highs as support. Yes, common stocks are rallying but are nowhere close to seriously testing 2008 highs. Recently, we noted a potential major bottom in both the metals and the mining stocks. With common stocks nearing major resistance, it is no surprise that we are nearing a point where the secular bull trend is ripe for reemergence.

The chart below shows Gold against the S&P 500. Note the similarity between 2003-2006 action and 2009-2012 action. After surging higher, the ratio retreats quickly but then forms a bottom and builds a base. The ratio has found strong support and won’t be going lower anytime soon. Stocks have had a nice relief rally against Gold but it looks to be all but over. 

Turning to Gold Stocks against Stocks, we find this ratio at a confluence of support. Yes, the mining equities had a difficult 2011 but it was nowhere close to their severe under-performance in 2008. Technically, the ratio looks likely to bottom soon and reverse course.

Moving along, we see the S&P 500 closing in on an area of strong resistance. Common stocks remain in a secular bear market and as a result, the market is nearing another sell signal. Conversely, the gold stocks which are in a secular bull market, are digging out a bottom

Investors and traders have to monitor charts and also sentiment which tells us more about fund flows and risk versus reward. Below is a screenshot of a new indicator developed by sentimentrader.com. They are combining put-call ratios, short interest and analyst ratings to develop another indicator for the various sectors. As you can see, every sector is either at or very close to a sell signal while the gold stocks are the only sector on a buy signal.

It may take a few months but common stocks are nearing an important peak. They won’t crash but they will act typical of what we see in the last third of a secular bear market. Doom and gloomers and extreme deflationists ignore the obvious reasons why stocks will begin a mild cyclical bear market and nothing of the sort of the previous two bear markets. At the same time, the precious metals sector is set to emerge from a major bottom and spend 2012 working its way towards the next major breakout that will serve as a catalyst for the beginnings of a bubble.

If you'd like professional guidance in riding this bull market and uncovering the winning companies then consider learning more about our premium service.

Good Luck!

Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT
Trendsman@Trendsman.com
Subscription Service

Trendsman” is an affiliate member of the Market Technicians Association (MTA) and is enrolled in their CMT Program, which certifies professionals in the field of technical analysis. He will be taking the final exam in Spring 07. Trendsman focuses on technical analysis but analyzes fundamentals and investor psychology in tandem with the charts. He credits his success to an immense love of the markets and an insatiable thirst for knowledge and profits.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in