Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
Quantum AI Stocks Investing Priority - 26th Jan 22
Is Everyone Going To Be Right About This Stocks Bear Market?- 26th Jan 22
Stock Market Glass Half Empty or Half Full? - 26th Jan 22
Stock Market Quoted As Saying 'The Reports Of My Demise Are Greatly Exaggerated' - 26th Jan 22
The Synthetic Dividend Option To Generate Profits - 26th Jan 22
The Beginner's Guide to Credit Repair - 26th Jan 22
AI Tech Stocks State Going into the CRASH and Capitalising on the Metaverse - 25th Jan 22
Stock Market Relief Rally, Maybe? - 25th Jan 22
Why Gold’s Latest Rally Is Nothing to Get Excited About - 25th Jan 22
Gold Slides and Rebounds in 2022 - 25th Jan 22
Gold; a stellar picture - 25th Jan 22
CATHY WOOD ARK GARBAGE ARK Funds Heading for 90% STOCK CRASH! - 22nd Jan 22
Gold Is the Belle of the Ball. Will Its Dance Turn Bearish? - 22nd Jan 22
Best Neighborhoods to Buy Real Estate in San Diego - 22nd Jan 22
Stock Market January PANIC AI Tech Stocks Buying Opp - Trend Forecast 2022 - 21st Jan 21
How to Get Rich in the MetaVerse - 20th Jan 21
Should you Buy Payment Disruptor Stocks in 2022? - 20th Jan 21
2022 the Year of Smart devices, Electric Vehicles, and AI Startups - 20th Jan 21
Oil Markets More Animated by Geopolitics, Supply, and Demand - 20th Jan 21
WARNING - AI STOCK MARKET CRASH / BEAR SWITCH TRIGGERED! - 19th Jan 22
Fake It Till You Make It: Will Silver’s Motto Work on Gold? - 19th Jan 22
Crude Oil Smashing Stocks - 19th Jan 22
US Stagflation: The Global Risk of 2022 - 19th Jan 22
Stock Market Trend Forecast Early 2022 - Tech Growth Value Stocks Rotation - 18th Jan 22
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Are We Setting Up For A 'Mini-Crash'? - 18th Jan 22
Mobile Sports Betting is on a rise: Here’s why - 18th Jan 22
Exponential AI Stocks Mega-trend - 17th Jan 22
THE NEXT BITCOIN - 17th Jan 22
Gold Price Predictions for 2022 - 17th Jan 22
How Do Debt Relief Services Work To Reduce The Amount You Owe? - 17th Jan 22
RIVIAN IPO Illustrates We are in the Mother of all Stock Market Bubbles - 16th Jan 22
All Market Eyes on Copper - 16th Jan 22
The US Dollar Had a Slip-Up, but Gold Turned a Blind Eye to It - 16th Jan 22
A Stock Market Top for the Ages - 16th Jan 22
FREETRADE - Stock Investing Platform, the Good, Bad and Ugly Review, Free Shares, Cancelled Orders - 15th Jan 22
WD 14tb My Book External Drive Unboxing, Testing and Benchmark Performance Amazon Buy Review - 15th Jan 22
Toyland Ferris Wheel Birthday Fun at Gulliver's Rother Valley UK Theme Park 2022 - 15th Jan 22
What You Should Know About a TailoredPay High Risk Merchant Account - 15th Jan 22

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Four Cycle Turns Warn of a Stock Market Top in March 2012

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012 Mar 05, 2012 - 01:41 AM GMT

By: Robert_McHugh_PhD

Stock-Markets

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThere is a lot of cycle evidence that suggests a top is coming in March 2012. How significant a top is hard to say, but the odds are the coming decline will be at least in the 10 percent area. If this coming top is the top of Grand Supercycle degree wave {III}, then stocks will begin a decline that could retrace 50 percent or more of the market over the next several years, with large chunks of decline occurring incrementally, followed by normal 40 to 60 percent retracements as stocks work toward significantly lower levels. This weekend we will present this cycle evidence, which we believe is compelling.


First of all, the last phi mate turn date was in December, which led to a two month rally of significance. It was a major phi mate turn. March 7th is the next phi mate date, and the only phi mate turn date since that December turn. It also is a major phi mate turn, meaning its phi mate, its partner date, was also a major turn.

DOW PHI Turn dates

There is also one of the largest Fibonacci Cluster turn windows we have ever seen due the first 2 weeks of March 2012. We have found that when there are a cluster of trading days within a short period of time that are a Fibonacci number of trading days from a key closing top or bottom of the past, there is a higher than normal probability that a significant trend turn is likely coming around that cluster time period.

In early September 2011 we identified a Fibonacci Cluster turn window that was telling us a significant trend turn was likely over the 7 trading day period from September 23rd to October 3rd a day. On October 3rd, 2011, the last day of this Cluster, the Industrials had the closing low for the decline from early September at 10,655.30. That was a bottom which has led so far to a rally of 2,357 points in five months. This Fibonacci Cluster turn window only had four previous tops or bottoms a Fibonacci number of trading days from this cluster, and it worked quite nicely at identifying a strong new trend.

Prior to that, the cluster turn window from August 1st through August 8th produced the August 10th bottom of the crash, while the cluster turn window from August 23rd through August 30th a few days, produced the September 1st top.

We now have another Fibonacci Cluster turn window that has nine!!! previous tops or bottoms that were a Fibonacci number of trading days from this coming turn window, which runs from February 23rd, 2012 through March 22nd, 2012. The mid-point of this range would be March 8th, very close to our March 7th phi mate turn date. This is one of the largest number of Fibonacci Cluster related mates we have ever seen. Hard to say what this means, but it adds significance to this coming period of time as being an important market turn.

Fibonacci Cluster

Also in March 2012, we have a coming Major Bradley model turn date. The last major Bradley model turn date was in late December, which has led to a significant rally over the past two months. All Bradley model turn dates between December 2011 and the coming March 16th turn were minor turns, and did not significantly affect the intermediate or primary trend of the market, which of course has been up. So now, in March 2012, we have two independent reliable major cycle turn dates within a week of each other. They are most likely pointing to the same one turn, and we are talking top here.

Then there is also the Spring Equinox annual cycle turn date. This weekend we present a chart and analysis of the past turns this Spring Cycle turn has produced.

Beware The Ides of March

Beware The Ides of March

Typically the stock market makes some of its most significant trend turns during the month of March each year. The charts above show this March turn phenomenon.

Since 2000, there have been ten years where a stock market significant turn occurred in the month of March. The two years it did not happen precisely in the month of March, 2006 and 2010, there were major turns in April and May, close to March. All turns were significant. Even the smaller turns were at least 100 S&P points (1,000 equivalent Dow Industrials points), but most turns were much more. I have no idea why this happens. There is something about the spring equinox that affects mass psychology of market participants.

In 2012, markets are set up for another significant turn, a top. Here we go again.

Then there is a periodic cycle turn date that a subscriber, Christian Gustafson, has pointed out for us. We show charts and analysis for that cycle turn date due in March 2012 next.

DOW

DOW

These charts tell us a cycle interval of approximately 5 months that has been very good at identifying stock market turns over the past decade. Not all turns were major, but many of them were.

What makes this cycle turn interval so interesting? It points toward a stock market top in early March 2012.

What all this is telling us is that the aging and weakening rally we have been watching could last another week or two, but then should end and be followed by a sharp and volatile decline that retraces most or all of the gains from the past two to four months. There is an alternate possibility that the coming March decline will merely be a corrective wave 4-down move, with one more large rally leg, wave 5-up taking stocks higher into the autumn 2012 and a Grand Supercycle degree wave {III} top that kicks off a decade of Great Tribulation.

Do not be satisfied hearing what the market did; learn how to predict what the market is going to do. Join us at www.technicalindicatorindex.com as we study the language of the markets. Markets tell where they are headed. Technical Analysis is the science where we learn and apply the language of the markets. The Dow Industrials have declined 675 points so far since our amazing trend-finder Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Sell Signal in November.

We cover a host of indicators and patterns, and present charts for most major markets in our International and U.S. Market reports, available to subscribers at www.technicalindicatorindex.com 

If you would like to follow us as we analyze precious metals, mining stocks, and major stock market indices around the globe, you can get a Free 30 day trial subscription by going to www.technicalindicatorindex.com and clicking on the Free Trial button at the upper right of the home page. We prepare daily and expanded weekend reports, and also offer mid-day market updates 3 to 4 times a week for our subscribers.

by Robert McHugh, Ph.D.  
technicalindicatorindex.com

Robert McHugh Ph.D. is President and CEO of Main Line Investors, Inc., a registered investment advisor in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, and can be reached at www.technicalindicatorindex.com.

The statements, opinions, buy and sell signals, and analyses presented in this newsletter are provided as a general information and education service only. Opinions, estimates, buy and sell signals, and probabilities expressed herein constitute the judgment of the author as of the date indicated and are subject to change without notice. Nothing contained in this newsletter is intended to be, nor shall it be construed as, investment advice, nor is it to be relied upon in making any investment or other decision. Prior to making any investment decision, you are advised to consult with your broker, investment advisor or other appropriate tax or financial professional to determine the suitability of any investment. Neither Main Line Investors, Inc. nor Robert D. McHugh, Jr., Ph.D. Editor shall be responsible or have any liability for investment decisions based upon, or the results obtained from, the information provided. Copyright 2008, Main Line Investors, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Robert McHugh, Ph.D Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in