Most Popular
1. Banking Crisis is Stocks Bull Market Buying Opportunity - Nadeem_Walayat
2.The Crypto Signal for the Precious Metals Market - P_Radomski_CFA
3. One Possible Outcome to a New World Order - Raymond_Matison
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Apple AAPL Stock Trend and Earnings Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
6.AI, Stocks, and Gold Stocks – Connected After All - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Stock Market CHEAT SHEET - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.US Debt Ceiling Crisis Smoke and Mirrors Circus - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Silver Price May Explode - Avi_Gilburt
10.More US Banks Could Collapse -- A Lot More- EWI
Last 7 days
Stock Market Volatility (VIX) - 25th Mar 24
Stock Market Investor Sentiment - 25th Mar 24
The Federal Reserve Didn't Do Anything But It Had Plenty to Say - 25th Mar 24
Stock Market Breadth - 24th Mar 24
Stock Market Margin Debt Indicator - 24th Mar 24
It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - 24th Mar 24
Stocks: What to Make of All This Insider Selling- 24th Mar 24
Money Supply Continues To Fall, Economy Worsens – Investors Don’t Care - 24th Mar 24
Get an Edge in the Crypto Market with Order Flow - 24th Mar 24
US Presidential Election Cycle and Recessions - 18th Mar 24
US Recession Already Happened in 2022! - 18th Mar 24
AI can now remember everything you say - 18th Mar 24
Bitcoin Crypto Mania 2024 - MicroStrategy MSTR Blow off Top! - 14th Mar 24
Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - 11th Mar 24
Gold and the Long-Term Inflation Cycle - 11th Mar 24
Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - 11th Mar 24
Two Reasons The Fed Manipulates Interest Rates - 11th Mar 24
US Dollar Trend 2024 - 9th Mar 2024
The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - 9th Mar 2024
Investors Don’t Believe the Gold Rally, Still Prefer General Stocks - 9th Mar 2024
Paper Gold Vs. Real Gold: It's Important to Know the Difference - 9th Mar 2024
Stocks: What This "Record Extreme" Indicator May Be Signaling - 9th Mar 2024
My 3 Favorite Trade Setups - Elliott Wave Course - 9th Mar 2024
Bitcoin Crypto Bubble Mania! - 4th Mar 2024
US Interest Rates - When WIll the Fed Pivot - 1st Mar 2024
S&P Stock Market Real Earnings Yield - 29th Feb 2024
US Unemployment is a Fake Statistic - 29th Feb 2024
U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - 29th Feb 2024
What a Breakdown in Silver Mining Stocks! What an Opportunity! - 29th Feb 2024
Why AI will Soon become SA - Synthetic Intelligence - The Machine Learning Megatrend - 29th Feb 2024
Keep Calm and Carry on Buying Quantum AI Tech Stocks - 19th Feb 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Gold and Silver Mining Stocks Approaching Most Oversold Level Since Start of Bull Market

Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks Apr 01, 2012 - 06:49 AM GMT

By: Jason_Hamlin

Commodities

The following chart shows the performance of mining stocks (XAU) versus the broader stock market (S&P 500). This comparison is useful in identifying periods when mining stocks are oversold or overbought versus the stock market as a whole. As you can see from the long-term chart, mining stocks have been outperforming the S&P 500 over time with the expected volatility that is mostly confined within the upward-sloping trend channel.


You will notice in the chart below that the XAU/SPX reading has now dropped outside of its long-term trend channel for the first time since the 2008 financial crisis. At the bottom of the chart, you will also notice that the weekly MACD has fallen to its lowest level since the 2008 financial crisis. This signals that the XAU/SPX has reached oversold territory, suggesting that mining equities are very oversold relative to the broader stock market.

The chart also shows the weekly RSI for the XAU/SPX, which fell to oversold territory only twice in the past decade and is now for the third time about to touch the 30 level. This is the lowest level for the momentum indicator since May of 2005, confirming the MACD signal mentioned above.

This is the first time in the past decade when there has been a convergence of these three technical signals. Not only has the XAU/SPX fallen outside of its long-term trend channel, but both the RSI and MACD indicators are flashing oversold. Conditions such as this tend not to persist for long, especially against a backdrop of strengthening fundamentals for precious metals. The amount of central bank printing that has occurred to prevent a Euro collapse in the past few months is well over $1 Trillion, in addition to a series of swaps and other stealth moves by the Federal Reserve to inject liquidity into banks that should have failed long ago.

The obvious pair trade here is to go long mining stocks and short the S&P500. The only scenario that I can imagine where this trade would fail is with a major Euro nation default that the central banks aren’t able to quickly paper over and prop up. Such an event could create a larger decline in the XAU than the SPX in the short term. While I believe the financial markets will spiral out of control eventually, my money says this will not occur until after the November elections.

I run a number of charts like this one every month in order to identify profit opportunities in the market. I have increased my long exposure to mining stocks in the past week and will continue to do so next week. If you would like to follow my exact trades and view all of the stocks held in the Gold Stock Bull portfolio, click here to sign up for the premium membership.

In addition to receiving email trade alerts and gaining access to the GSB portfolio, you will also receive the monthly contrarian newsletter and all of our premium member guides, designed to help you prepare for the potential of a dollar collapse. The Gold Stock Bull newsletter has become one of the top-rated subscription newsletters available. At just $39/month or $299/year, I believe you will find it to be an excellent value for the money. Click here to get started.

By Jason Hamlin

http://www.goldstockbull.com/

Jason Hamlin is the founder of Gold Stock Bull and publishes a monthly contrarian newsletter that contains in-depth research into the markets with a focus on finding undervalued gold and silver mining companies. The Premium Membership includes the newsletter, real-time access to the model portfolio and email trade alerts whenever Jason is buying or selling. You can try it for just $35/month by clicking here.

Copyright © 2012 Gold Stock Bull - All Rights Reserved

All ideas, opinions, and/or forecasts, expressed or implied herein, are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation to invest, trade, and/or speculate in the markets. Any investments, trades, and/or speculations made in light of the ideas, opinions, and/or forecasts, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise. The information on this site has been prepared without regard to any particular investor’s investment objectives, financial situation, and needs. Accordingly, investors should not act on any information on this site without obtaining specific advice from their financial advisor. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.


© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in