Most Popular
1. Banking Crisis is Stocks Bull Market Buying Opportunity - Nadeem_Walayat
2.The Crypto Signal for the Precious Metals Market - P_Radomski_CFA
3. One Possible Outcome to a New World Order - Raymond_Matison
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Apple AAPL Stock Trend and Earnings Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
6.AI, Stocks, and Gold Stocks – Connected After All - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Stock Market CHEAT SHEET - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.US Debt Ceiling Crisis Smoke and Mirrors Circus - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Silver Price May Explode - Avi_Gilburt
10.More US Banks Could Collapse -- A Lot More- EWI
Last 7 days
Stock Market Volatility (VIX) - 25th Mar 24
Stock Market Investor Sentiment - 25th Mar 24
The Federal Reserve Didn't Do Anything But It Had Plenty to Say - 25th Mar 24
Stock Market Breadth - 24th Mar 24
Stock Market Margin Debt Indicator - 24th Mar 24
It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - 24th Mar 24
Stocks: What to Make of All This Insider Selling- 24th Mar 24
Money Supply Continues To Fall, Economy Worsens – Investors Don’t Care - 24th Mar 24
Get an Edge in the Crypto Market with Order Flow - 24th Mar 24
US Presidential Election Cycle and Recessions - 18th Mar 24
US Recession Already Happened in 2022! - 18th Mar 24
AI can now remember everything you say - 18th Mar 24
Bitcoin Crypto Mania 2024 - MicroStrategy MSTR Blow off Top! - 14th Mar 24
Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - 11th Mar 24
Gold and the Long-Term Inflation Cycle - 11th Mar 24
Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - 11th Mar 24
Two Reasons The Fed Manipulates Interest Rates - 11th Mar 24
US Dollar Trend 2024 - 9th Mar 2024
The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - 9th Mar 2024
Investors Don’t Believe the Gold Rally, Still Prefer General Stocks - 9th Mar 2024
Paper Gold Vs. Real Gold: It's Important to Know the Difference - 9th Mar 2024
Stocks: What This "Record Extreme" Indicator May Be Signaling - 9th Mar 2024
My 3 Favorite Trade Setups - Elliott Wave Course - 9th Mar 2024
Bitcoin Crypto Bubble Mania! - 4th Mar 2024
US Interest Rates - When WIll the Fed Pivot - 1st Mar 2024
S&P Stock Market Real Earnings Yield - 29th Feb 2024
US Unemployment is a Fake Statistic - 29th Feb 2024
U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - 29th Feb 2024
What a Breakdown in Silver Mining Stocks! What an Opportunity! - 29th Feb 2024
Why AI will Soon become SA - Synthetic Intelligence - The Machine Learning Megatrend - 29th Feb 2024
Keep Calm and Carry on Buying Quantum AI Tech Stocks - 19th Feb 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Volatility In Silver and GDX

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013 Feb 28, 2013 - 04:14 PM GMT

By: DeviantInvestor

Commodities

I recently wrote an article describing the daily volatility in gold and concluded that:

  • Even in powerful bull markets, the gold price will probably go down about 40% of time, based on daily prices, and 30% based on weekly prices.
  • The “bull” will do everything it can to buck you off and force you out of the market.
  • Bull markets never make it easy. By the time it looks easy (say early 2000 in the NASDAQ), it is too late to buy and it is time to exit.

This article extends the same analysis to silver and GDX, the gold ETF. Are the results similar? See below.

Question: Should I be worried when I see silver or metals stocks go down for several days or even several weeks? Good question! What does the data show?

Big Picture: Examine the long-term chart of prices, and select the bull and bear market periods. Over the past eight years, I separated the silver chart into four completed bull periods and four bear periods. The bull periods are:

Beginning Ending Total Calendar Days % Price Change
8/30/2005 5/11/2006 254 123%
6/13/2006 3/14/2008 640 114%
10/28/2008 12/2/2009 400 119%
2/5/2010 4/29/2011 448 227%

The bear periods occur between the bull periods.

Quick Summary: Over eight years, there have been four completed bull markets and four bear markets in silver. Each bull market lasted an average of 1.2 years and moved upward in that time by 114% or more.

We tend to think of bull markets as continuous rises in price followed by bear markets in which the price drops relentlessly. Is that accurate? Look at the data!

In the four large bull markets from August 2005 to April 2011, silver went from $6.63 to about $48 (current price is about $29), up a total of 620%. But in those four large bull markets, the daily price went up on average only 60% of the time and down 40% of the time. (Actual data, up 61.9%, 56.7%, 56.2% and 61.0%)

Let me repeat: In the four large silver bull markets since August 2005 (when the bull market really took off), the daily price of silver went up about 60% of the time and down about 40% of the time. Those bull markets were not constructed upon relentless upward moves, but upon chaotic sometimes up, sometimes down moves. On average, the daily upward moves occurred slightly more often than the daily downward moves. Yet, each bull market moved up over 114% in price from beginning to end.

Conclusion

Bull markets include many down days. If we became discouraged every time silver moved down on a particular day, we would live 40% of our life feeling discouraged by the quite common downward moves. Bull markets move up slightly more often than down, and bear markets do the opposite. Think three steps forward and two steps backwards. That is the nature of markets.

So, the next time you feel discouraged by the daily moves in the metals market (or any market), return to your basic analysis and remember:

  • Even in powerful bull markets, the price will probably go down about 40% of the trading days.
  • The “bull” will do everything it can to buck you off and force you out of the market.
  • Bull markets never make it easy. By the time it looks easy (say early 2000 in the NASDAQ), it is too late to buy and it is time to exit.
  • It takes emotional stamina to hold your positions, and it takes determination to maintain perspective. Look at the weekly and monthly trends, look at the fundaments, and look at the sentiment.
  • If “everyone” knows that a market is going up, it is time to exit.
  • If the media is obsessing over a particular market, it is probably time to exit.
  • If your neighbors think you are crazy for buying silver, gold, or their stocks, then it is probably time to add to your position.
  • When your neighbors and your hairdresser are telling you they are buying silver, it is probably time to sell.

Maintain perspective and remember that investing in silver is not easy if you listen to Wall Street or the media or if you become discouraged on the 40% of the days when the price of silver goes down, even during bull markets. Read Ten Steps to Safety.

I did a similar analysis on the gold ETF, symbol GDX. The data is less clear, and the bull and bear periods are open to more interpretation. I started from the low in October of 2008.

Beginning Ending Total Calendar Days % Price Change
10/27/2008 12/02/2009 401 234%
02/04/2010 09/08/2011 581 66%

In those two bull markets from October 2008 to September 2011, GDX went from $16.37 to about $66, up a total of 300%. But, in those two bull markets, the daily price went up on average only 52% of the time and down 48% of the time. (Actual data, up 51.4%, 52.2%)

Keep it simple: As the dollar goes down in purchasing power, gold and silver go up. The dollar’s purchasing power has gone down, on average, every decade for the last 100 years. The actions of the Federal Reserve, printing $85,000,000,000 in new dollars from “thin air” each month, will decrease the purchasing power of the dollar. Hence, buy silver and gold and stocks in silver and gold mining companies. Fool proof – No! Better than most other choices – Yes! Read $100 Silver! Yes, But When?

GE Christenson
aka Deviant Investor

If you would like to be updated on new blog posts, please subscribe to my RSS Feed or e-mail

© 2013 Copyright Deviant Investor - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in