Most Popular
1. Banking Crisis is Stocks Bull Market Buying Opportunity - Nadeem_Walayat
2.The Crypto Signal for the Precious Metals Market - P_Radomski_CFA
3. One Possible Outcome to a New World Order - Raymond_Matison
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Apple AAPL Stock Trend and Earnings Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
6.AI, Stocks, and Gold Stocks – Connected After All - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Stock Market CHEAT SHEET - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.US Debt Ceiling Crisis Smoke and Mirrors Circus - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Silver Price May Explode - Avi_Gilburt
10.More US Banks Could Collapse -- A Lot More- EWI
Last 7 days
Stock Market Volatility (VIX) - 25th Mar 24
Stock Market Investor Sentiment - 25th Mar 24
The Federal Reserve Didn't Do Anything But It Had Plenty to Say - 25th Mar 24
Stock Market Breadth - 24th Mar 24
Stock Market Margin Debt Indicator - 24th Mar 24
It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - 24th Mar 24
Stocks: What to Make of All This Insider Selling- 24th Mar 24
Money Supply Continues To Fall, Economy Worsens – Investors Don’t Care - 24th Mar 24
Get an Edge in the Crypto Market with Order Flow - 24th Mar 24
US Presidential Election Cycle and Recessions - 18th Mar 24
US Recession Already Happened in 2022! - 18th Mar 24
AI can now remember everything you say - 18th Mar 24
Bitcoin Crypto Mania 2024 - MicroStrategy MSTR Blow off Top! - 14th Mar 24
Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - 11th Mar 24
Gold and the Long-Term Inflation Cycle - 11th Mar 24
Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - 11th Mar 24
Two Reasons The Fed Manipulates Interest Rates - 11th Mar 24
US Dollar Trend 2024 - 9th Mar 2024
The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - 9th Mar 2024
Investors Don’t Believe the Gold Rally, Still Prefer General Stocks - 9th Mar 2024
Paper Gold Vs. Real Gold: It's Important to Know the Difference - 9th Mar 2024
Stocks: What This "Record Extreme" Indicator May Be Signaling - 9th Mar 2024
My 3 Favorite Trade Setups - Elliott Wave Course - 9th Mar 2024
Bitcoin Crypto Bubble Mania! - 4th Mar 2024
US Interest Rates - When WIll the Fed Pivot - 1st Mar 2024
S&P Stock Market Real Earnings Yield - 29th Feb 2024
US Unemployment is a Fake Statistic - 29th Feb 2024
U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - 29th Feb 2024
What a Breakdown in Silver Mining Stocks! What an Opportunity! - 29th Feb 2024
Why AI will Soon become SA - Synthetic Intelligence - The Machine Learning Megatrend - 29th Feb 2024
Keep Calm and Carry on Buying Quantum AI Tech Stocks - 19th Feb 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Gold - Goldman Sachs Strikes Again

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013 Oct 14, 2013 - 06:05 AM GMT

By: Clif_Droke

Commodities

Call it the revenge of the gold bears. Jeffrey Currie, the Goldman Sachs chief commodity analyst whose name inspires dread on all gold bugs who hear it, has made yet another bearish prediction for the gold price.

Last week Mr. Currie stated that gold is a "slam dunk" sell because of his expectation that the U.S. economy will extend its recovery after Congress extends the debt ceiling. The price of gold, as if on cue, promptly declined after Currie's remarks were widely published and it appears that gold is indeed poised for another leg down.


Goldman Sachs' target for the gold price next year was adjusted to $1,050/oz. "Once we get past this stalemate in Washington, precious metals are a slam dunk sell at that point," Currie said. "You have to argue that with significant recovery in the U.S., tapering of QE should put downward pressure on gold prices."

Currie and Ric Deverell, the head of commodities research at Credit Suisse AG, both said on a panel at the Commodities Week conference in London on Oct. 8 that selling gold is their top recommendation for trading in raw materials in the next year. "The downside of driving the bus off the cliff is so significant that we will come to a resolution," Currie said.

Joining Goldman Sachs and Credit Suisse in its bearish gold outlook for 2014 is Morgan Stanley, which stated on Oct. 10 that it expects the yellow metal will extend its losses once the Federal Reserve begins tapering its QE3 stimulus policy. "We recommend staying away from gold at this point in the cycle," said Morgan Stanley analyst Joel Crane as reported in Bloomberg.

"Our forecast profile heading into next year is relatively flat against our expectations of rising real interest rates and the U.S. dollar," Crane told Bloomberg. Morgan Stanley further predicted that gold would average lower every year through 2018.

There are two ways of interpreting the increase in bearish calls on gold by investment bank analysts. On the one hand, as we've seen on at least two occasions this year, the banks can be wrong when too many of them pile on the bearish bandwagon. This falls under the contrarian principle of the crowd usually being wrong at major junctures (and yes, that includes institutions at times).

We've also seen that the leading institutional banks can be right in their gold forecasts when the metal is highly vulnerable to political moves - especially when the technical trend is down. This appears to be one of those instances, and I'm not unconvinced that analysts like Currie and Deverell purposely wait until these critical junctures arrive before grandstanding with their bearish predictions. It's interesting that these analysts are nowhere to be seen when gold is in an uptrend; it's only when a downtrend has been firmly established and gold is at or near a critical chart support (and in danger of breaking under it) that they come out with their bearish proclamations.


Some would say this is a case of high-profile agenda setting rather than accurate prognostication. Whatever the case, the analysts have the trend on their side and traders should be wary about assuming these analysts are wrong. The price of gold (basis December futures) is still under its 15-day moving average (see above), which tells us the dominant immediate-term trend is still down. Until this downtrend is decisively broken, the sellers are assumed to be in control.

High Probability Relative Strength Trading

Traders often ask what is the single best strategy to use for selecting stocks in bull and bear markets? Hands down, the best all-around strategy is a relative strength approach. With relative strength you can be assured that you're buying (or selling, depending on the market climate) the stocks that insiders are trading in. The powerful tool of relative strength allows you to see which stocks and ETFs the "smart money" pros are buying and selling before they make their next major move.

Find out how to incorporate a relative strength strategy in your trading system in my latest book, High Probability Relative Strength Analysis. In it you'll discover the best way to identify relative strength and profit from it while avoiding the volatility that comes with other systems of stock picking. Relative strength is probably the single most important, yet widely overlooked, strategies on Wall Street. This book explains to you in easy-to-understand terms all you need to know about it. The book is now available for sale at:

http://www.clifdroke.com/books/hprstrading.html

Order today to receive your autographed copy along with a free booklet on the best strategies for momentum trading. Also receive a FREE 1-month trial subscription to the Gold & Silver Stock Report newsletter.

By Clif Droke

www.clifdroke.com

Clif Droke is the editor of the daily Gold & Silver Stock Report. Published daily since 2002, the report provides forecasts and analysis of the leading gold, silver, uranium and energy stocks from a short-term technical standpoint. He is also the author of numerous books, including 'How to Read Chart Patterns for Greater Profits.' For more information visit www.clifdroke.com

Clif Droke Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in