Large Forex Speculators Cut US Dollar Bullish Bets to 7-month Low
Currencies / US Dollar Oct 27, 2013 - 10:43 AM GMTBy: Submissions
CountingPips writes: The weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) report, not published for close to a month due to the partial US government shutdown, was released on Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and showed that large futures traders & speculators continued to decrease their bullish bets of the US dollar for a third week in a row on October 1st.
Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large International Monetary Market speculators, cut their overall US dollar long positions to a total of $692.8 million as of Tuesday October 1st. This was a decline of $-2.89 billion from the total long position of $3.58 billion that was registered on September 24th, according to data from Reuters that calculates this amount by the total of US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.
US dollar overall long positions, on October 1st, marked a new lowest level since February 12th when US dollar bets were bearish at a total of $-3.02 billion.
COT explanation: The weekly cot report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and non-reportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).
Individual Currencies Large Speculators Positions in Futures:
The large non-commercial net positions for each of the individual major currencies directly against the US dollar on October 1st showed weekly increases for the euro, British pound sterling, Japanese yen, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar, Australian dollar, Mexican peso and the New Zealand dollar.
Individual Currency Charts:
EuroFX:
Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions: EuroFX
| Date | Large Trader Net Positions | Weekly Change |
| 08/27/2013 | 40081 | 3335 |
| 09/03/2013 | 22738 | -17343 |
| 09/10/2013 | 12696 | -10042 |
| 09/17/2013 | 31907 | 19211 |
| 09/24/2013 | 65844 | 33937 |
| 10/01/2013 | 68276 | 2432 |
British Pound Sterling:
Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions: Pound Sterling
| Date | Lg Trader Net | Weekly Change |
| 08/27/2013 | -38226 | 1296 |
| 09/03/2013 | -43046 | -4820 |
| 09/10/2013 | -38166 | 4880 |
| 09/17/2013 | -6310 | 31856 |
| 09/24/2013 | 1174 | 7484 |
| 10/01/2013 | 1496 | 322 |
Japanese Yen:
Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions: Yen
| Date | Lg Trader Net | Weekly Change |
| 08/27/2013 | -78353 | -6632 |
| 09/03/2013 | -79761 | -1408 |
| 09/10/2013 | -95066 | -15305 |
| 09/17/2013 | -88794 | 6272 |
| 09/24/2013 | -92818 | -4024 |
| 10/01/2013 | -82324 | 10494 |
Swiss Franc:
Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions: Franc
| Date | Lg Trader Net | Weekly Change |
| 08/27/2013 | 402 | 111 |
| 09/03/2013 | 1059 | 657 |
| 09/10/2013 | 420 | -639 |
| 09/17/2013 | 616 | 196 |
| 09/24/2013 | 5745 | 5129 |
| 10/01/2013 | 6636 | 891 |
Canadian Dollar:
Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions: CAD
| Date | Lg Trader Net | Weekly Change |
| 08/27/2013 | -24959 | -15415 |
| 09/03/2013 | -34639 | -9680 |
| 09/10/2013 | -30942 | 3697 |
| 09/17/2013 | -18764 | 12178 |
| 09/24/2013 | -5675 | 13089 |
| 10/01/2013 | -955 | 4720 |
Australian Dollar:
Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions: AUD
| Date | Lg Trader Net | Weekly Change |
| 08/27/2013 | -71117 | -7934 |
| 09/03/2013 | -71506 | -389 |
| 09/10/2013 | -60032 | 11474 |
| 09/17/2013 | -27360 | 32672 |
| 09/24/2013 | -34819 | -7459 |
| 10/01/2013 | -28804 | 6015 |
New Zealand Dollar:
Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions: NZD
| Date | Lg Trader Net | Weekly Change |
| 08/27/2013 | 252 | -2138 |
| 09/03/2013 | -797 | -1049 |
| 09/10/2013 | -601 | 196 |
| 09/17/2013 | 5657 | 6258 |
| 09/24/2013 | 8055 | 2398 |
| 10/01/2013 | 10891 | 2836 |
Mexican Peso:
Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions: MXN
| Date | Lg Trader Net | Weekly Change |
| 08/27/2013 | 7198 | -28933 |
| 09/03/2013 | 688 | -6510 |
| 09/10/2013 | 8279 | 7591 |
| 09/17/2013 | -10201 | -18480 |
| 09/24/2013 | 14023 | 24224 |
| 10/01/2013 | 14601 | 578 |
The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).
Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.
(The graphs overlay the forex spot closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.)
See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.
Article by CountingPips.com
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