This is what I wrote for subscribers yesterday about the Retail HLDRs ETF (AMEX: RTH), and there is no change in my outlook right now: The RTH appears to me to have ratcheted up into a higher trading plateau between 93.00 and 96.00 from 92.00 to 96.00, as the price structure pushes towards a confrontation with a cluster of resistance that is represented by its 9-month down trendline, the declining 200-day moving average, and a 5-month plateau of prior failed rally peaks at 96.00/65.

If the RTH hurdles the resistance, then it will unleash the potential of a huge base formation that projects to 102 and then 105. Only a decline that breaks 93.30 will begin to compromise my current outlook.

By Mike Paulenoff

Mike Paulenoff is author of the MPTrader.com (www.mptrader.com) , a real-time diary of Mike Paulenoff's trading ideas and technical chart analysis of Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) that track equity indices, metals, energy commodities, currencies, Treasuries, and other markets. It is for traders with a 3-30 day time horizon, who use the service for guidance on both specific trades as well as general market direction

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