Election Result - Labour Wins South Yorkshire Police and Crime Commissioner
ElectionOracle / UK Local Elections Oct 31, 2014 - 05:21 PM GMTBy: N_Walayat
The mainstream press were once more caught out by an apparently surprise Labour win in the South Yorkshire PCC by-election, as the press had increasingly built themselves up into a fever pitch of expectations for an upset UKIP victory all in the wake of the single issue of the Rotherham child abuse scandal as illustrated earlier by the likes of Channel 4 news -
"A UKIP victory here would be especially embarrassing to Labour as Ed Milliband is a South Yorkshire MP. It would be a sign that Nigel Farage's party poses as much as threat to Labour as it does to the Conservatives and a sign too that in many parts of Northern England just as in Scotland that Labour can no longer depend on its working class base" - Michael Crick, C4News (28th Oct 14)
In the aftermath of the Labour win the likes of the Guardian can now be found trying to explain why Labour won, though I am sure they would have used the same reasons to explain why Labour lost had they done so!
Guardian - 31st October - Why did UKIP lose the South Yorkshire PCC by election?
Why didn’t Ukip win the South Yorkshire police and crime commissioner byelection? The bookies thought Nigel Farage’s party would win the race. They were wrong and here’s why....
The Guradian then continues with its list of BS reasons all of which FAIL to recognise the PRIMARY reason why Labour won the election which was that the voters of the Peoples Republic of South Yorkshire would NEVER have voted for a party to the RIGHT of the conservatives no matter how incompetent Labour governance had been in places such as Rotherham as I had iterated in several articles in the lead up to the by-election.
UKIP South Yorkshire PCC Election Win is Just Not Going to Happen
The bottom line is that the only way for a party to replace Labour in South Yorkshire would be to BECOME Labour, which is how the Lib-Dems prior to joining the Coalition had limited success because they sought to out Labour, Labour. And frankly its just not going to happen with the likes of UKIP, for they can NEVER be a substitute Labour party for the fundamental reason that UKIP are to the RIGHT of the Conservatives.
So a UKIP win is just NOT going to happen, even given the mismanagement and everything bad that has happened in Rotherham and probably elsewhere too, its just NOT going to have any significant effect on South Yorkshire's Labour vested interest zombie voters.
Earlier still, before the 2012 SYPCC election, I estimated the probabilities for each for the candidates winning the election (probability of win and NOT the % of vote) which illustrated despite all of the media hype at that time about a 'close race', in terms of the actual probability of winning, none of the non Labour candidates sood a cat in hells chance of winning given an over 70% probability for Labour with the nearest contender on just a 10% chance of winning, and despite all of the media noise since, there has been very little movement in terms of actual probability of outcome.
12 Nov 2012 - Shaun Wright Wins South Yorkshire Police and Crime Commissioner Rubber Stamp Election!
As mentioned earlier, probability strongly favours Labours Shaun Wright winning the SYPCC election as illustrated by the graph below that it would literally take a miracle for any other parties candidate to win as the voters of the peoples republic of south yorkshire will be expected to rubber stamp the Labour candidate without having any clue of either who the candidate is or exactly what the PCC is supposed to do.
The actual results further illustrate that there had been very little change in Labours share of the vote.
| Party | 2012 % | 2014 % |
|---|---|---|
| Labour | 51.35 | 50 |
| English Democrat | 15.56 | 5.8 |
| Conservative | 14.51 | 12.5 |
| UKIP | 11.54 | 31.7 |
| Liberal Democrat | 7.04 | |
| Turnout | 14.53 | 14.65 |
As a share of the vote Labour were virtually unchanged on the 2012 PCC election, which means UKIP hoovered up votes from the likes of the English Democrats and Tories to come in 2nd and off course the Liberal Democrats who failed to put up a candidate as they continue their trend towards extinction after having betrayed virtually everything they believed in so that their MP's could be chauffeured around in Limousines. Meanwhile the turnout was only marginally higher than 2012 as most of the people of South Yorkshire recognise that PCC's are just jobs for the boys, where Westminister dinosaurs hope to retire to.
The bottom line is whilst Alan Billings will be congratulating himself on his victory, the truth is that even if labour had put up a four legged candidate, labours zombie voters would still have marked a cross against the red rose next to its name and UKIP did not do themselves any favor's by picking an ex- South Yorkshire copper, a police force that's primary function appears to be one of covering up a continuous stream of cover ups dating back several decades such as the Battle of Orgreave (miners strike), Hillsborough Disaster, Rotherham and on goes the list.
In terms of the probability for the outcome of the May 2015 general election my longstanding forecast is as excerpted below -
30 Dec 2013 - UK House Prices Forecast 2014 to 2018, Inflation, Trend Trajectory and General Election 2015
In conclusion a May 2015 general election at an average house price inflation rate of 8.5% would result in a Conservative overall majority of at least 30 seats. Therefore this is my minimum expectation as I expect UK house prices to start to average 10% per annum from early 2014 with my actual forecast converging towards average UK house prices breaking to a new all time high just prior to the May 2015 general election which would be a significant boost for housing market sentiment and thus the Conservative's election prospects.
By Nadeem Walayat
Copyright © 2005-2014 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.
Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.
Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.
Nadeem Walayat Archive |
© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.
