Will New Labour Voters Commit Financial Suicide at an General Election?

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The crushing triple whammy of defeats for Gordon Browns government at the hands of the electorate now make a conservative government led by David Cameron a reality. Many labour voters have enjoyed riding on governments gravy train over the past 10 years are now biting the hand that feeds them as Labour has sought to redistribute wealth from the well offs to the not so well offs.

The main beneficiaries under New Labour have been -

• 8,000,000 on Benefits - Those out of work and on benefits have benefited significantly under new labour, as the government has sought to improve standards of living and alleviate poverty. However this has contributed to the creation of a culture of benefits across many areas of the UK which was highlighted in a recent BBC Panorama programme.
• 12,000,000 Pensioners - A group greatly neglected under the previous conservative government have enjoyed much improvement under New Labour which includes in healthcare, the winter fuel payments and well above inflation annual pension increases.
• 6,000,000 Public Sector workers have enjoyed huge rises in pay as the government has tripled the annual budgets of manu public sector departments over the last 10 years. However this increase has not resulted in a for like increase in output. I.e. for every extra £1 spent on the NHS, 70p is wasted. Similarly GP's have enjoyed a more than tripling in pay whilst at the same time cutting back on their hours as the NHS has been forced to fly in eastern european doctors to cover for out of hours care, hence patient care has suffered instead of improving.
• 5,000,000 Low Paid workers - Have benefited hugely from both the minimum wage and the tax credits system which is especially targeted at young families and single parent households.

30,000,000 in total ride on New Labour's gravy train, more than enough to ensure general election victories.

The New Labour Losers

The losers are basically everyone else not included above, which includes young families where the household income is above £25,000. However the losers have put up with the government spending waste as strong economic growth coupled with rising house prices made people feel richer under New Labour. However now that the housing bubble has burst the cushion of rising house prices has now been replaced with the prospects of loss of equity, this at a time when global stagflationary forces are resulting in huge fuel and food price hikes that are not reflected in the officially flawed inflation measure (CPI).

The Labour vote meltdown increasingly suggests that those that have benefited under New Labour have forgotten their experience of a Conservative government, which would result in the conservatives targeting their natural voter pool, i.e. average earners upwards to fund the new Conservative Gravy Train, those on benefits and the public sector workers would be expected to be targeted for cut backs, and to a lesser extent the low paid and pensioners.

So whilst labour policy beneficiaries feel the pain of economic slowdown and contraction during 2009, it will be interesting to see to what degree they are willing to switch to the conservatives at an general election. Self preservation suggests that at an general election, many of the May 2008 protest voters will return to new Labour and therefore the election will be much closer than opinion polls now suggest, so all is not lost for Gordon Brown, unless he is forced out of office by panicking Labour MP's.

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By Nadeem Walayat

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