No U.S. Interest Rate Hike in 2015?
Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates Nov 15, 2014 - 02:34 PM GMTBy: DailyWealth
Dr. Steve Sjuggerud writes: Everyone expects higher interest rates in 2015... Everyone, that is, except Jim Rickards.
Jim Rickards is an original thinker...
I've already shared with you in DailyWealth Jim's brilliant but out-of-the-mainstream view that DEFLATION – not inflation – is the financial storm that nobody is expecting. (I urge you to go back and read the DailyWealth I wrote about that, right here.)
Jim opened my eyes to that idea... and so far he has been right. Inflation, it turns out, is apparently much more difficult to ignite than governments around the world have expected. The threat of deflation looms.
Earlier this week, Jim offered up yet another well-researched but out-of-the-mainstream view...
Jim says it's very likely the Federal Reserve will NOT raise interest rates next year.
Jim spoke after me at our investment conference in the Dominican Republic earlier this week. He is a compelling speaker. (Go see him if you get the chance.)
Jim explained why he doesn't expect the Fed will raise interest rates in 2015. It all comes down to who makes the decisions to raise interest rates...
"Almost everything changes on January 1," Rickards explained...
"The President has vacancies to fill among Fed Governors, and he will most certainly put doves in. Also, two "super-hawks" – Fisher and Plosser – will no longer have a vote." (Doves are less likely to raise interest rates. Hawks are more likely to raise interest rates.)
Rickards says Janet Yellen – the head of the Federal Reserve – is dovish and won't be in any hurry to raise interest rates. So the list of voting members, according to Jim, is loaded with doves. This group, he says, won't raise interest rates.
I didn't believe Jim when I first heard him say that he thought the Fed wouldn't raise interest rates in 2015. But I like his explanation.
A year ago, Jim was the only man out there making a strong case that deflation was a REAL threat. It was a bold call. But so far, he has been right.
Now, Jim is making a bold call that the Fed might not raise interest rates in 2015.
It's another bold call... But he may just turn out to be right about this as well.
Everyone else says the Fed will raise interest rates in 2015. Jim Rickards isn't so sure of that...
You can agree or disagree with Jim Rickards' opinions – but don't dismiss them. Instead, soak them in. Learn both sides of the argument.
I love it when people are willing to stick their necks out with conviction. Jim Rickards is one of those people.
He could be right... or wrong... about a lot of things. Either way, he is thought-provoking... and therefore worth listening to. Deflation is a real threat, and the Fed might not raise interest rates in 2015 after all. I like this guy's thinking...
You should learn more about him. To learn more about Jim and his thought-provoking perspectives, I highly recommend you read his book, The Death of Money.
Good investing,
Steve
P.S. We still have some free copies of The Death of Money available for DailyWealth readers. All you have to do is cover shipping costs (less than $5). Get all the details and claim your copy here.
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