Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
Quantum AI Stocks Investing Priority - 26th Jan 22
Is Everyone Going To Be Right About This Stocks Bear Market?- 26th Jan 22
Stock Market Glass Half Empty or Half Full? - 26th Jan 22
Stock Market Quoted As Saying 'The Reports Of My Demise Are Greatly Exaggerated' - 26th Jan 22
The Synthetic Dividend Option To Generate Profits - 26th Jan 22
The Beginner's Guide to Credit Repair - 26th Jan 22
AI Tech Stocks State Going into the CRASH and Capitalising on the Metaverse - 25th Jan 22
Stock Market Relief Rally, Maybe? - 25th Jan 22
Why Gold’s Latest Rally Is Nothing to Get Excited About - 25th Jan 22
Gold Slides and Rebounds in 2022 - 25th Jan 22
Gold; a stellar picture - 25th Jan 22
CATHY WOOD ARK GARBAGE ARK Funds Heading for 90% STOCK CRASH! - 22nd Jan 22
Gold Is the Belle of the Ball. Will Its Dance Turn Bearish? - 22nd Jan 22
Best Neighborhoods to Buy Real Estate in San Diego - 22nd Jan 22
Stock Market January PANIC AI Tech Stocks Buying Opp - Trend Forecast 2022 - 21st Jan 21
How to Get Rich in the MetaVerse - 20th Jan 21
Should you Buy Payment Disruptor Stocks in 2022? - 20th Jan 21
2022 the Year of Smart devices, Electric Vehicles, and AI Startups - 20th Jan 21
Oil Markets More Animated by Geopolitics, Supply, and Demand - 20th Jan 21
WARNING - AI STOCK MARKET CRASH / BEAR SWITCH TRIGGERED! - 19th Jan 22
Fake It Till You Make It: Will Silver’s Motto Work on Gold? - 19th Jan 22
Crude Oil Smashing Stocks - 19th Jan 22
US Stagflation: The Global Risk of 2022 - 19th Jan 22
Stock Market Trend Forecast Early 2022 - Tech Growth Value Stocks Rotation - 18th Jan 22
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Are We Setting Up For A 'Mini-Crash'? - 18th Jan 22
Mobile Sports Betting is on a rise: Here’s why - 18th Jan 22
Exponential AI Stocks Mega-trend - 17th Jan 22
THE NEXT BITCOIN - 17th Jan 22
Gold Price Predictions for 2022 - 17th Jan 22
How Do Debt Relief Services Work To Reduce The Amount You Owe? - 17th Jan 22
RIVIAN IPO Illustrates We are in the Mother of all Stock Market Bubbles - 16th Jan 22
All Market Eyes on Copper - 16th Jan 22
The US Dollar Had a Slip-Up, but Gold Turned a Blind Eye to It - 16th Jan 22
A Stock Market Top for the Ages - 16th Jan 22
FREETRADE - Stock Investing Platform, the Good, Bad and Ugly Review, Free Shares, Cancelled Orders - 15th Jan 22
WD 14tb My Book External Drive Unboxing, Testing and Benchmark Performance Amazon Buy Review - 15th Jan 22
Toyland Ferris Wheel Birthday Fun at Gulliver's Rother Valley UK Theme Park 2022 - 15th Jan 22
What You Should Know About a TailoredPay High Risk Merchant Account - 15th Jan 22

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

ECB tentatively edges closer to QE in 2015; more EUR weakness likely

Currencies / Euro Nov 27, 2014 - 12:39 PM GMT

By: MahiFX

Currencies

The characterisation of Europe as “elderly and haggard” by Pope Francis is an accurate one, but on December 4 the European Central Bank could lay the groundwork to try and revitalise the region's sagging economy.

If was down to European Central Bank President Mario Draghi, the Eurozone would already be on the receiving end of a substantial quantitative easing programme and likely the EUR would be even weaker than it is now – but Draghi's time could yet come, as early as December 4th.


Eurozone inflation levels are well below the 2% target at 0.4%, unemployment is stubbornly high at 11.5% and there are worrying signs of potential stagnation taking hold in the Eurozone's two leading economies – France and Germany. Though there is a welcome stabilisation and even recovery taking place in the region's peripheral economies.

And though QE might be justified on inflation levels (prices are likely to weaken further on falling commodity prices) – Draghi clearly faces tough opposition within the ECB, hence QE hasn't happened yet. 

One of those leading opponents is Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann who continues to express scepticism and he has allies, such as Klaas Knot of the Dutch central bank. There are concerns over moral hazard (possibly overdone given the massive fiscal retrenchment in the periphery countries) and the fact that it could be illegal.

Weidmann pointed to rules forbidding the ECB from funding governments by buying sovereign debt. Draghi will likely point to yields of sovereign debt in countries such as Spain as being below 2%, to fiscal discipline (Greece has been running primary budget surpluses) and the fact that these countries do not need the ECB's help to fund themselves. This is about raising inflation. 

EUR/USD – poised ahead of Dec 4.

Lack of dramatic results from current stimulus programmes

The fact is the ECB has concocted a virtual alphabet soup of programmes to push cheap money into banks, it's trying to revive Europe's asset backed market and so on … So far none have had had the desired impact and others such as the ABS programme would anyway probably take several years to make an impression. Also, Draghi seems to have agreement that the central bank's balance sheet can expand by EUR 1 trillion.

But buying sovereign government bonds in the secondary markets will have a very quick impact, such as been seen by the QE programmes conducted in the US, UK and Japan. The former two even have growing economies now.

There will be a choreography leading up to the December 4th meeting, which will influence its outcome.

On November 27, Draghi is due to speak in Helsinki and this is another opportunity for him to signal the ECB's intentions with regards QE. A positive statement in favour may be a sign that he is winning the argument within the ECB.

On November 28, Eurozone inflation data is released with it forecast to fall to 0.3% from 0.4% now. A fall would likely bolster the ECB's QE camp – but rise could sway the 'no' side at the meeting.

There's probably a 50/50 chance of a major QE programme being announced on Dec 4. But clearly events are building up for it to happen, so the announcement may come a few months later. The chances of the ECB doing QE in 2015 look increasingly high.

The ECB and BoJ will effectively be replacing the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England in terms of providing tidal waves of liquidity to the world's capital markets with the fight against deflation very much alive and well. The EUR and JPY look set for more losses over the H1 2015. 

By Justin Pugsley, Markets Analyst MahiFX

http://mahifx.com

Follow MahiFX on twitter

For media enquiries contact: Michele McDermott-Fox, The Top Floor Agency.
T: +44(0)1625 502 545 |M: +44 (0)7729 501 369 | E: michele@thetopflooragency.com

About MahiFX

MahiFX is headed by David Cooney, former global co-head of currency options and e-FX trading at Barclays Capital and responsible for the award winning e-commerce platform BARX and Susan Cooney, former head of e-FX Institutional Sales in Europe for Barclays Capital. Operating as a market maker, MahiFX provides traders direct access to institutional level execution speeds and spreads through its proprietary-built fully automated pricing and risk management technology, lowering the cost of retail forex trading.

MahiFX global operations are headquartered in Christchurch, New Zealand with offices in London, UK with development and support teams in both locations for 24 hour service. The company is regulated by The Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC), Australia’s corporate, markets and financial services regulator.

© 2014 Copyright MahiFX - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: This material is considered a public relations communication for general information purposes and does not contain, and should not be construed as containing, investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments. MahiFX makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided.

The use of MahiFX’s services must be based on your own research and advice, and no reliance should be placed on any information provided or comment made by any director, officer or employee of MahiFX. Any opinions expressed may be personal to the author, and may not reflect the opinions of MahiFX, and are subject to change without notice


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in