Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Market Decline Will Lead To Pension Collapse, USD Devaluation, And NWO - Raymond_Matison
2.Uber’s Nightmare Has Just Started - Stephen_McBride
3.Stock Market Crash Black Swan Event Set Up Sept 12th? - Brad_Gudgeon
4.GDow Stock Market Trend Forecast Update - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Gold Significant Correction Has Started - Clive_Maund
6.British Pound GBP vs Brexit Chaos Timeline - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Cameco Crash, Uranium Sector Won’t Catch a break - Richard_Mills
8.Recession 2020 Forecast : The New Risks & New Profits Of A Grand Experiment - Dan_Amerman
9.Gold When Global Insanity Prevails - Michael Ballanger
10.UK General Election Forecast 2019 - Betting Market Odds - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
YouGov's MRP Poll Final Tory Seats Forecast Revised Down From 359 to 338, Possibly Lower? - 10th Dec 19
What UK Economy (Average Earnings) Predicts for General Election Results 2019 - 10th Dec 19
Labour vs Tory Manifesto's UK General Election Parliamentary Seats Forecast 2019 - 10th Dec 19
Lumber is about to rally and how to play it with this ETF - 10th Dec 19
Social Mood and Leaders Impact on General Election Forecast 2019 - 9th Dec 19
Long-term Potential for Gold Remains Strong! - 9th Dec 19
Stock and Financial Markets Review - 9th Dec 19
Labour / Tory Manifesto's Impact on UK General Election Seats Forecast 2019 - 9th Dec 19
Tory Seats Forecast 2019 General Election Based on UK House Prices Momentum Analysis - 9th Dec 19
Top Tory Marginal Seats at Risk of Loss to Labour and Lib Dems - Election 2019 - 9th Dec 19
UK House Prices Momentum Tory Seats Forecast General Election 2019 - 8th Dec 19
Why Labour is Set to Lose Sheffield Seats at General Election 2019 - 8th Dec 19
Gold and Silver Opportunity Here Is As Good As It Gets - 8th Dec 19
High Yield Bond and Transports Signal Gold Buy Signal - 8th Dec 19
Gold & Silver Stocks Belie CoT Caution - 8th Dec 19
Will Labour Government Spending Bankrupt Britain? UK Debt and Deficits - 7th Dec 19
Lib Dem Fake Tory Election Leaflets - Sheffield Hallam General Election 2019 - 7th Dec 19
You Should Be Buying Gold Stocks Now - 6th Dec 19
The End of Apple Has Begun - 6th Dec 19
How Much Crude Oil Do You Unknowingly Eat? - 6th Dec 19
Labour vs Tory Manifesto Voter Bribes Impact on UK General Election Forecast - 6th Dec 19
Gold Price Forecast – Has the Recovery Finished? - 6th Dec 19
Precious Metals Ratio Charts - 6th Dec 19
Climate Emergency vs Labour Tree Felling Councils Reality - Sheffield General Election 2019 - 6th Dec 19
What Fake UK Unemployment Statistics Predict for General Election Result 2019 - 6th Dec 19
What UK CPI, RPI and REAL INFLATION Predict for General Election Result 2019 - 5th Dec 19
Supply Crunch Coming as Silver Miners Scale Back - 5th Dec 19
Gold Will Not Surpass Its 1980 Peak - 5th Dec 19
UK House Prices Most Accurate Predictor of UK General Elections - 2019 - 5th Dec 19
7 Year Cycles Can Be Powerful And Gold Just Started One - 5th Dec 19
Lib Dems Winning Election Leaflets War Against Labour - Sheffield Hallam 2019 - 5th Dec 19
Do you like to venture out? Test yourself and see what we propose for you - 5th Dec 19
Great Ways To Make Money Over Time - 5th Dec 19
Calculating Your Personal Cost If Stock, Bond and House Prices Return To Average - 4th Dec 19
Will Labour Government Plant More Tree's than Council's Like Sheffield Fell? - 4th Dec 19
What the UK Economy GDP Growth Rate Predicts for General Election 2019 - 4th Dec 19
Gold, Silver and Stock Market Big Picture: Seat Belts Tightened - 4th Dec 19
Online Presence: What You Need to Know About What Others Know About You - 4th Dec 19
New Company Tip: How To Turn Prospects into Customers with CRM Tech - 4th Dec 19
About To Relive The 2007 US Housing Market Real Estate Crash Again? - 3rd Dec 19
How Far Will Gold Reach Before the Upcoming Reversal? - 3rd Dec 19
Is The Current Stock Market Rally A True Valuation Rally or Euphoria? - 3rd Dec 19
Why Shale Oil Not Viable at $45WTI Anymore, OPEC Can Dictate Price Again - 3rd Dec 19
Lib Dem Election Dodgy Leaflets - Sheffield Hallam Battle General Election 2019 - 3rd Dec 19
Land Rover Discovery Sport Brake Pads Uneven Wear Dash Warning Message at 2mm Mark - 3rd Dec 19
The Rise and Evolution of Bitcoin - 3rd Dec 19
Virtual games and sport, which has one related to the other - 3rd Dec 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

UK House prices predicting general election result

Gold and Silver at Crucial Point Between Bull and Bear

Commodities / Gold & Silver Jun 01, 2008 - 01:48 PM GMT

By: Merv_Burak


It was a bad week but not yet a disaster.

Illness in the family. Commentary will be short.

GOLD: LONG TERM For the next few weeks, time will not permit a detailed review of the precious metals market. I would recommend that readers go to the TABLE of Precious Metals Indices for a view of the technical information about the various Indices and markets.

Just a few words, although the gold price seemed to have had a good rally over the past year the move was not accompanied by any real strength. One might almost view it as a last grasp at the bull for a while. As mentioned in previous commentaries the long term P&F chart has already gone bearish. As for the charts and indicators, well that depends upon what one is looking at. The TABLE uses somewhat more aggressive indicators than I usually use for the analysis. These more aggressive long term indicators have already gone bearish while the less aggress ones I use every week for these commentaries have not yet gone that route, but are moving in that direction.


Although the rally of a few weeks back looked like the real thing it petered out and turned the indicators back to the bear side. Those FAN trend lines have now confirmed the third FAN line which needs to be breached for any confirmation of an intermediate term bull. In the mean time we are back to the bear.


As the chart shows, we seem to be at a crucial point. Gold has reacted lower giving us that third FAN trend line and now has bounced off the short term support trend line for what may be the start of a new rally and intermediate term bull attempt. A move below the support trend line may see a test of the previous early May low while a continued up move through the third FAN trend line may see another attempt at new all time highs. I don't like that high volume on the Tuesday plunge but let's see what happens next.


The analysis for silver is very much the same as for gold except that silver seems to have had a more emphatic negative move recently than did gold. It is closer to its previous lows and looks slightly weaker than gold.


I know that the vast majority of precious metal enthusiasts go to the two or three major North American Gold Indices for their information as to what the gold stocks are doing. Those Indices have had a good rally into new all time highs over the past year. However, as I have so often mentioned those Indices give a huge weight to the largest component stocks and little weight to the smaller stocks in their Indices. So, in effect, their Indices are basically a view of what the few large gold stocks are doing.

The Merv's Indices are based upon the AVERAGE weekly performance of all the component stocks with no stock being given greater or lesser weight towards the Index value.

Which method of Index calculation is best? Well that's a personal preference. Both methods have their benefits and problems.

The Merv's Gold & Silver 160 Index is an Index of 160 gold and silver stocks, including the top 100 traded stocks on the North American exchanges by market value. Very quickly, the two most interesting and important features of the accompanying chart are the chart itself and the momentum indicator.

Despite the fact that the major Indices have had a good run over the past year the Merv's 160 Index shows the average gold and silver stock going through a MAJOR topping process.over the past year, year and a half. The major trend has now turned to the down side with the very long term 52 week moving average line turning downward with the Index action. As for the very long term 52 week RSI, that has been showing the continued weakness in the Index action since reaching its peak in early 2004. Even during the past year or so as the Index was making an attempt to gain altitude the momentum indicator was showing continuing weakness. For the first time since the start of the bull market in these stocks in 1999 the very long term momentum indicator has gone negative, below its 50% level.

For long term “investors” this does not seem to be the time to be making any new “investments” and, in fact, it might be a more appropriate time to be considering divesting instead.

Of course, nothing is for certain. Things could change quickly and the weakness over the past year could quickly turn to strength. That's why one goes with the flow and should the flow change, one would change with it. However, most money lost in the markets are lost when one tries to go against the flow.

Merv's Precious Metals Indices Table

That's it for this simplified week.

By Merv Burak, CMT
Hudson Aero/Systems Inc.
Technical Information Group
for Merv's Precious Metals Central

For DAILY Uranium stock commentary and WEEKLY Uranium market update check out my new Technically Uranium with Merv blog at .

During the day Merv practices his engineering profession as a Consulting Aerospace Engineer. Once the sun goes down and night descends upon the earth Merv dons his other hat as a Chartered Market Technician ( CMT ) and tries to decipher what's going on in the securities markets. As an underground surveyor in the gold mines of Canada 's Northwest Territories in his youth, Merv has a soft spot for the gold industry and has developed several Gold Indices reflecting different aspects of the industry. As a basically lazy individual Merv's driving focus is to KEEP IT SIMPLE .

To find out more about Merv's various Gold Indices and component stocks, please visit . There you will find samples of the Indices and their component stocks plus other publications of interest to gold investors.

Before you invest, Always check your market timing with a Qualified Professional Market Technician

Merv Burak Archive

© 2005-2019 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


02 Jun 08, 07:33
charts VS maket condition

I realize it is not a stat but a developing market condition is that cost may close a lot of ineficient mines

due to operational cost,

thus driving metal prices higher due to availability.

How doe's one account for this?

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules