Most Popular
1. Banking Crisis is Stocks Bull Market Buying Opportunity - Nadeem_Walayat
2.The Crypto Signal for the Precious Metals Market - P_Radomski_CFA
3. One Possible Outcome to a New World Order - Raymond_Matison
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Apple AAPL Stock Trend and Earnings Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
6.AI, Stocks, and Gold Stocks – Connected After All - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Stock Market CHEAT SHEET - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.US Debt Ceiling Crisis Smoke and Mirrors Circus - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Silver Price May Explode - Avi_Gilburt
10.More US Banks Could Collapse -- A Lot More- EWI
Last 7 days
Stock Market Volatility (VIX) - 25th Mar 24
Stock Market Investor Sentiment - 25th Mar 24
The Federal Reserve Didn't Do Anything But It Had Plenty to Say - 25th Mar 24
Stock Market Breadth - 24th Mar 24
Stock Market Margin Debt Indicator - 24th Mar 24
It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - 24th Mar 24
Stocks: What to Make of All This Insider Selling- 24th Mar 24
Money Supply Continues To Fall, Economy Worsens – Investors Don’t Care - 24th Mar 24
Get an Edge in the Crypto Market with Order Flow - 24th Mar 24
US Presidential Election Cycle and Recessions - 18th Mar 24
US Recession Already Happened in 2022! - 18th Mar 24
AI can now remember everything you say - 18th Mar 24
Bitcoin Crypto Mania 2024 - MicroStrategy MSTR Blow off Top! - 14th Mar 24
Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - 11th Mar 24
Gold and the Long-Term Inflation Cycle - 11th Mar 24
Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - 11th Mar 24
Two Reasons The Fed Manipulates Interest Rates - 11th Mar 24
US Dollar Trend 2024 - 9th Mar 2024
The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - 9th Mar 2024
Investors Don’t Believe the Gold Rally, Still Prefer General Stocks - 9th Mar 2024
Paper Gold Vs. Real Gold: It's Important to Know the Difference - 9th Mar 2024
Stocks: What This "Record Extreme" Indicator May Be Signaling - 9th Mar 2024
My 3 Favorite Trade Setups - Elliott Wave Course - 9th Mar 2024
Bitcoin Crypto Bubble Mania! - 4th Mar 2024
US Interest Rates - When WIll the Fed Pivot - 1st Mar 2024
S&P Stock Market Real Earnings Yield - 29th Feb 2024
US Unemployment is a Fake Statistic - 29th Feb 2024
U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - 29th Feb 2024
What a Breakdown in Silver Mining Stocks! What an Opportunity! - 29th Feb 2024
Why AI will Soon become SA - Synthetic Intelligence - The Machine Learning Megatrend - 29th Feb 2024
Keep Calm and Carry on Buying Quantum AI Tech Stocks - 19th Feb 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Gold In A Negative Interest Rate World

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015 Feb 12, 2015 - 04:57 PM GMT

By: John_Rubino

Commodities

Global capital is looking for a place to hide. But after decades of enthusiastic currency creation and financial engineering, there’s way too much of it for any one country to accommodate. This mismatch between money knocking at the door and available space is leading the handful of remaining safe havens to put up “no vacancy” signs in order to avoid being swamped. Among the things they’re trying is negative interest rates. That is, if you want to deposit money in a Swiss or Danish bank or lend money to the Japanese or German governments you now have to pay them for the privilege.


This sounds a little crazy, and from a historical perspective it is indeed highly unusual. But it’s exactly what you’d expect in a world of ever-increasing debt and ever-more-exotic financial speculation: Too much bad paper gets created which eventually blows up, causes instability and leads worried investors to value return of capital over return on capital. They all pile into whatever seems most likely to still exist a decade hence, forcing (or enabling) the managers of those assets to charge rather than pay interest. Here’s a sampling of recent stories on the subject:

Less Than Zero: When Interest Rates Go Negative

In Denmark, Depositors to Pay Interest to Bank

Negative interest rates are hammering Germany’s savings banks

Riksbank Preview: Next in Line for Negative Interest Rates?

Swiss Impose Negative Rate Echoing 1970s Amid Russia Crisis

Get Ready For Negative Interest Rates In The US

Now, there are lots of interesting sub-topics to explore in a world of negative interest rates. But let’s start with the role of gold. Traditionally the ultimate safe haven, it is the one form of money that can’t be messed with and therefore the place to be when the messing gets out of hand.

Lately, for instance, it has spiked in countries with emerging currency crises. In Russia, Argentina, Greece and in fact the entire eurozone, the local-currency price of gold has risen faster even than the exchange rate of safe haven currencies like the US dollar and Swiss franc. And with interest rates going negative in much of the world, a person with capital to allocate confronts a new and very interesting risk/return calculus. Consider:

On a cash flow basis, gold sitting in a vault actually costs money in the form of storage fees. In normal times — back when government bonds and bank deposits yielded, say, 6% — the spread in favor of the bond and against gold was pretty compelling. But what happens when interest rates go negative, so that the cash cost of owing gold and government bonds is pretty much the same at around 1% a year? Now our hypothetical capital allocator has to ask some new questions. Among them: Has a fiat currency ever had a sustained period of rising value? That is, has there ever been deflation for more than just a short while in a system where a central bank could create unlimited amounts of currency? The answer is no, for an obvious reason: Deflation is bad for sitting politicians because it makes both government and business debts harder to manage and therefore elections harder to win.

In such circumstances money printing is pain-free. The sound-money advocates who normally criticize debt monetization are silenced by falling prices. Inflationists, meanwhile, love easy money and can always be counted on to cheer low interest rates and currency devaluation. So when fiat currency deflation becomes a possibility, it is always and everywhere met with a tidal wave of newly-created money, which eventually converts deflation into inflation.

This has been happening on a rolling basis around the world. When one country or currency bloc slows down its central bank opens the monetary spigot, interest rates plunge and the currency falls against its peers.

So here we are, with gold and government bonds costing about the same to own, but governments actively trying to lower the value of their bonds and bank accounts while gold is rising wherever trouble erupts.

The logical conclusion is that if gold and cash both cost the same to own, then maybe gold — which has held its value over millennia while every previous fiat currency has evaporated — is the better bet. In Switzerland, this is apparently already happening:

Swiss Bank Says Investors Favor Gold Amid Charges on Cash

(Bloomberg) — Investors are buying more gold as an alternative to hold Swiss franc cash deposits, according Vontobel Holding AG, a Swiss bank and wealth manager.

“We keep noticing that gold is coming back into favor with investors,” Vontobel Chief Executive Officer Zeno Staub, 45, told reporters Wednesday after the Zurich-based company announced full-year earnings.

Concerns that Greece may abandon the euro and Ukraine may be headed for a wider conflict have spurred demand for haven assets. Gold has climbed 4.2 percent this year, even as the dollar strengthened on prospects of higher U.S. interest rates. Investors’ holdings in gold-backed funds are near the highest since October.

Vontobel boosted the proportion of gold in discretionary managed investments by 2 percent after the Swiss National Bank increased charges on banks that use it as a custodian for franc deposits, Staub said. The central bank introduced a 0.75 percent negative interest rate on some deposits as of Jan. 22.

By John Rubino

dollarcollapse.com

Copyright 2015 © John Rubino - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in