Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Stock Market Rip the Face Off the Bears Rally! - 22nd Dec 24
STOP LOSSES - 22nd Dec 24
Fed Tests Gold Price Upleg - 22nd Dec 24
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Why Do We Rely On News - 22nd Dec 24
Never Buy an IPO - 22nd Dec 24
THEY DON'T RING THE BELL AT THE CRPTO MARKET TOP! - 20th Dec 24
CEREBUS IPO NVIDIA KILLER? - 18th Dec 24
Nvidia Stock 5X to 30X - 18th Dec 24
LRCX Stock Split - 18th Dec 24
Stock Market Expected Trend Forecast - 18th Dec 24
Silver’s Evolving Market: Bright Prospects and Lingering Challenges - 18th Dec 24
Extreme Levels of Work-for-Gold Ratio - 18th Dec 24
Tesla $460, Bitcoin $107k, S&P 6080 - The Pump Continues! - 16th Dec 24
Stock Market Risk to the Upside! S&P 7000 Forecast 2025 - 15th Dec 24
Stock Market 2025 Mid Decade Year - 15th Dec 24
Sheffield Christmas Market 2024 Is a Building Site - 15th Dec 24
Got Copper or Gold Miners? Watch Out - 15th Dec 24
Republican vs Democrat Presidents and the Stock Market - 13th Dec 24
Stock Market Up 8 Out of First 9 months - 13th Dec 24
What Does a Strong Sept Mean for the Stock Market? - 13th Dec 24
Is Trump the Most Pro-Stock Market President Ever? - 13th Dec 24
Interest Rates, Unemployment and the SPX - 13th Dec 24
Fed Balance Sheet Continues To Decline - 13th Dec 24
Trump Stocks and Crypto Mania 2025 Incoming as Bitcoin Breaks Above $100k - 8th Dec 24
Gold Price Multiple Confirmations - Are You Ready? - 8th Dec 24
Gold Price Monster Upleg Lives - 8th Dec 24
Stock & Crypto Markets Going into December 2024 - 2nd Dec 24
US Presidential Election Year Stock Market Seasonal Trend - 29th Nov 24
Who controls the past controls the future: who controls the present controls the past - 29th Nov 24
Gold After Trump Wins - 29th Nov 24
The AI Stocks, Housing, Inflation and Bitcoin Crypto Mega-trends - 27th Nov 24
Gold Price Ahead of the Thanksgiving Weekend - 27th Nov 24
Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast to June 2025 - 24th Nov 24
Stocks, Bitcoin and Crypto Markets Breaking Bad on Donald Trump Pump - 21st Nov 24
Gold Price To Re-Test $2,700 - 21st Nov 24
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: This Is My Strong Warning To You - 21st Nov 24
Financial Crisis 2025 - This is Going to Shock People! - 21st Nov 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Gold CoT Improving, But ...

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015 Mar 01, 2015 - 10:32 AM GMT

By: Gary_Tanashian

Commodities

Gold's CoT data predictably improved again this week, but here I think some discussion is needed just in case it starts to get hyped too much.

Below is the CoT on an improving trend of Commercial short covering and large Speculator long reduction. Okay, that's good. But here is the part where the hype needs to be tuned out. The CoT tends to degrade (i.e. trend in a bearish direction during gold rallies) and improve (i.e. trend in a positive direction during gold corrections). The charts of CoT and gold below are set over the same 1 year time frames...


Gold COT versus Gold Chart 1

What I am saying is to watch out for a false blip, possibly coinciding with the festival of hopes and dreams known as PDAC. The sector can at times pump into and during PDAC and plunge after. Just so we are balanced here, it can also keep going up. It depends on the sector's fundamentals at the time (still not fully baked) and the macro backdrop (in transition). But there is sure to be price movement into and out of PDAC.

Back on point, I don't believe the improvement trend in the CoT is done yet. Hey great, it has more improvement ahead! But again, real turning points in the metal tend to come when CoT trends exhaust in the contrary direction. Here is a graphic of the above two items combined, showing a 'blip' in the CoT (orange) before its ultimate trend change with the November gold bottom.

Gold COT versus Gold Chart 2

Bottom Line

We are managing a fledgling gold sector rally coming right around the time of an event that brings out the gold "community" in numbers. There will be speeches and presentations that make a lot of sense to honest people in light of policy chicanery going on 24/7 and 365, globally. But price does not care about speeches. It cares only about what it is.

That is why we, like the earliest cavemen, use tools* so as to not out think ourselves. In October gold bounced (orange arrow) and the CoT blipped (temporarily reversed its trend in sympathy).

Now, anything is possible I suppose, so if today's fledgling rally (which NFTRH managed in real time for subscribers as HUI came down to our preferred support level and the metals dropped toward 'must hold' support) sees CoT continue to improve toward trend exhaustion, fine, we'll take it.

But right minded would-be gold bugs should be aware that the CoT trend looks not to have completed yet and if it blips toward the negative along with a sector bounce during PDAC, the risk level is going to jump markedly.

As a gold bug I care about honesty in the monetary world and I have my beliefs for the long-term. As a market navigator, I don't care one way or the other what happens in the coming weeks. All I care about is that NFTRH subscribers and myself are prepared and on the right side of it. Period. NFTRH is the best market service, bar none, for this type of finely tuned management. And given its wide range of services (detailed weekly report with in-week 'market notes' and trade idea updates) and modest cost (which will be increasing later in 2015), it is a standout value among its peers as well.

* The scary and/or titillating stock charts that nearly every analyst uses these days (unlike when I first began managing markets in the 1990's) only tell one part of the story and it is a very linear story at that. The real tools for success are not titillating, they are boring and they reside beneath the hype. But they, like the above simple CoT analysis are vital in staying on the right path in any market.

Subscribe to NFTRH Premium for your 25-35 page weekly report, interim updates (including Key ETF charts) and NFTRH+ chart and trade ideas or the free eLetter for an introduction to our work. Or simply keep up to date with plenty of public content at NFTRH.com and Biiwii.com.

By Gary Tanashian

http://biiwii.com

© 2015 Copyright  Gary Tanashian - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in