Tory Attack on Ed Milliband Backfires as Labour Takes Opinion Polls Lead

ElectionOracle / UK General Election Apr 13, 2015 - 04:26 PM GMT

Last weeks decision to go on the personal offensive against Ed Miliband may have seemed like a good idea at the time amongst Conservative party strategists but the personal attacks suggesting that Ed Miliband would stab the UK in the back just as he did to his own brother David by being prepared to scrap Trident in exchange for SNP post election support was initiated by Tory Defence Secretary Michael Fallon, a statement that senior Conservatives from the Prime Minister down refused to criticise.

“Ed Miliband stabbed his own brother in the back to become Labour leader. Now he is willing to stab the United Kingdom in the back to become prime minister.”

“We saw in that leadership election just what he would do to get into power. We saw what he did to his own brother. We need to know what he would do.

"We can't be sure what kind of backstairs deal he is likely to do with the SNP... that is the uncertainty."

	Market Oracle	May2015 .com	Electoralcalculus .co.uk	ElectionForecast .co.uk	The Guardian
	28th Feb	12th Apr	12th Apr	13th Apr	13th Apr
Conservative	296	267	277	283	271
Labour	262	277	284	274	271
SNP	35	54	48	42	51
Lib Dem	30	26	17	27	28
UKIP	5	3	2	1	4
Others	22	22	22	22	22

Now some four days on the polls have swing in Labours favour as voters were clearly put off by the personal attacks against the Labour leader. Whilst today Labour published their manifesto (election bribes booklet) which I am sure the political pundits will go through with a fine tooth comb. Though the strong probability for a hung parliament makes manifestos redundant, not just because politicians lie and make promises that they just cannot keep with a long list of excuses ready as to why they could not fulfill their promises, but that post election parties will negotiate the actual programme for government as part of a coalition agreement. So today's Labour and tomorrows Conservative Manifestos are approximately 50% BS fantasy election bribes.

Hung Parliament Seats Calculations

The opinion polls currently forecast seat averages for Conservatives on 274.5 and Labour on 276.5. The calculations for what form a coalition government could take become extremely complicated if not impossible without resorting to a truly messy and disastrous outcome that involves the Scottish Nationalists i.e.

Conservatives + Lib Dems (24.5) = 299 - FAIL

Add DUP 8 seats = 307 - FAIL

Whilst Labour + Lib Dems (24.5) = 301 - FAIL

Which means the ONLY viable / workable outcome is one that involves the SNP i.e. Labour + SNP (49) =325 - SUCCESS, with perhaps the Lib Dems deciding to tag along for the limousine rides.

The following are individual forecaster trends and my analysis.

May2015.com (New Statesman)

	MO 28th Feb	12th Apr	7th Apr	31st Mar	28th Mar	21st Mar	12th Mar	5th Mar	26th Feb	10th Feb
Conservative	296	267	271	278	271	274	281	255	270	270
Labour	262	277	273	265	273	271	263	283	271	272
SNP	35	54	54	55	55	55	55	55	56	56
Lib Dem	30	26	26	25	24	24	24		26	25
UKIP	5	3	3	4	3	3	4		4	4
Others	22	22	22	22	22	22

Keeps flip flopping between Labour and Conservative in the lead and no greater distance than 10 seats from 275.

Electoralcalculus.co.uk

	MO 28th Feb	12th Apr	7th Apr	29th Mar	22nd Mar	14th Mar	9th Mar	27th Feb	30th Jan
Conservative	296	277	275	274	267	262	267	265	265
Labour	262	284	286	287	300	301	298	301	297
SNP	35	48	48	48	48	46	55	46	50
Lib Dem	30	17	17	17	17	17		15	17
UKIP	5	2	2	2	1	1		1	1
Others	22	22	22	22	22

Have consistently exhibited a strong bias towards Labour which has been slowly eroding over time that suggest will converge with other forecasters over the next few weeks.

ElectionForecast.co.uk

	MO 28th Feb	13th Apr	8th Apr	30th Mar	22nd Mar	11th Mar	25th Feb	13th Feb
Conservative	296	283	287	282	286	295	284	280
Labour	262	274	270	281	276	267	279	283
SNP	35	42	43	36	39	42	39	37
Lib Dem	30	27	27	27	26	24	25	27
UKIP	5	1	1	1	1	1	1	2
Others	22	22	22	23	22

Tends to consistently put the Conservatives in a clear seats lead, so tends to most closely reflect my own long standing forecast.

The Guardian

	MO 28th Feb	13th Apr	8th Apr	31st Mar	29th Mar	18th Mar	11th Mar	27th Feb	28th Jan
Conservative	296	271	272	278	275	277	279	276	273
Labour	262	271	273	271	271	269	266	271	273
SNP	35	51	51	50	53	53	52	51	49
Lib Dem	30	28	28	25	25	25	27	27	28
UKIP	5	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	5
Others	22	22	22	22	22	22

After maintaining a continuous marginal advantage to the Conservatives over Labour has now swung in Labours favour, exhibiting no clear trend direction.

Seats Forecast Trend Analysis

Overall the opinion pollsters are currently trending in favour of the Labour party which if the trend continues implies that Labour will be the largest party on election day on about 290 seats that is contrary to my forecast expectations for the Tories to lead with at least 296 seats.

Another point of difference is that pollsters continue to grossly over estimate the number of seats the SNP will win i.e. typically 48-54, against my expectations of just 35.

Conclusion

In my judgement the opinion polls remain wrong as they continue to persistently under estimate the number of seats the Conservatives will actually win by a widening margin, who in my opinion could still even win an outright majority on May 7th.

UK General Election Forecast 2015

In terms of what I actually see as the most probable outcome for the general election, I refer to my in-depth analysis of 28th Feb:

28 Feb 2015 - UK General Election 2015 Seats Forecast - Who Will Win?
28 Feb 2015 - UK General Election 2015 - Forecasting Seats for SNP, LIb-Dems, UKIP and Others

UK General Election May 2015 Forecast Conclusion

My forecast conclusion is for the Conservatives to win 296 seats at the May 7th general election, Labour 2nd on 262 seats, with the full seats per political party breakdown as follows:

Therefore the most probable outcome is for a continuation of the ConDem Coalition government on 326 seats (296+30) where any shortfall would likely find support from the DUP's 8 seats.

The alternative is for a truly messy Lab-Lib SNP supported chaotic government on 327 seats (262+30+35) which in my opinion would be a truly disastrous outcome for Britain, nearly as bad as if Scotland had voted for independence last September.

Another possibility is that should the Conservatives do better than forecast i.e. secure over 300 seats but still fail to win an overall majority, then they may chose to go it alone with the plan to work towards winning a May 2016 general election.

The bottom line is that the opinion polls do not reflect how people will actually vote on May 7th when they are faced with a stark choice of steady as she goes ConDem government or take a huge gamble on Ed Milliband's Labour party. So in my opinion several millions of voters will chose to play it safe with ConDem which thus is the most probable outcome.

Also available a youtube video version of my forecast:

The opinion polls suggest that the UK is going to take a gamble on a Labour SNP government which my analysis has consistently warned will be a losing bet for Britain (SNP Labour Death Embrace). However, as is often the case that the opinion polls can be wrong, just as the Scottish referendum reality was never the 50/50 proposition that opinion polls suggested at the time (45/55), and so today's marginal advantage to a Labour SNP Alliance should at least resolve in a continuation of the Conservative / Lib Dem Coalition. Though the Conservatives may try to go it alone with the objective of a second better engineered election outcome within the next 12 months as the economy continues to grow above trend.

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Source and Comments: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article50238.html

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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Comments

zahlen2k 14 Apr 15, 01:00	Election turn out and UKIP coalition Hi Nadeem Thanks for your prompt response to my previous question, really appreciate it. In your coalition calculations, where you showed conservative plus DUP, is that including UKIP? If not do you not think UKIP would form a coalition with the Tories? Also I know you once suggested in polling alot of people wouldnt want to say they are going to vote Tory, and also I would think people who want to change the current government, i.e. labour voters in marginal consistuancies who may not have benefitted from current policies, I think they may be more likely to show a higher turn out? What do you think? Thanks again Zahir
Nadeem_Walayat 14 Apr 15, 16:58	UKIP Hi I think UKIP are toxic for the Tories and they know it, they will only ever think of entering into government with UKIP of they start to get more than about 15 seats. The tories will lose seats to Labour but gain from Lib Dems. Labour lost this election in Scotland with the rise of the SNP freebies without any consquences party.
zahlen2k 14 Apr 15, 20:58	5-10 UKIP seats If the 5-10 UKIP seats could tilt it in there favour surely they would take it. What you said about right for tenants to buy private properties is an interesting one. Labour have mentioned 3 year tenancies I believe recently. Cheers
Nadeem_Walayat 15 Apr 15, 05:06	UKIP Conservative It could but UKIP to Conservative are what SNP are to Labour. It would sow the seeds for the Tories to tear themselves apart.

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