Conservatives Start to Pull Away from Labour in Opinion Polls, But is it too Late? Election Forecast 2015

ElectionOracle / UK General Election Apr 27, 2015 - 04:22 PM GMT

With just 10 days left to go the pace of campaigning is intensifying with economic austerity abandoned in favour of a literal flood of daily voter bribes such as Labours Stamp duty bribe of upto £5k for first time buyers, and attempting to appeal to the 5 million private renters by offering 3 year rent controls. Whilst the Conservatives are offering to take 3 million on minimum wage out of tax altogether, though not mentioning if that includes national insurance as well. Meanwhile the SNP play the wolf in sheep's clothing game with front woman Nicola Sturgeon offering conciliatory messages as she bakes cakes, all the whilst hiding the truth that she is not even standing for parliament instead it will be Alex Salmond who will be calling the shots over a weak Labour minority government. That leaves the Lib Dem's offering to mellow both Labour and Conservative extremes as they ride around in their chauffeur driven limousines.

Opinion Pollster Seats Forecasts

	Market Oracle	May2015 .com	Electoralcalculus .co.uk	ElectionForecast .co.uk	The Guardian
	28th Feb	26th Apr	26th Apr	27th Apr	27th Apr
Conservative	296	272	279	286	274
Labour	262	271	282	267	270
SNP	35	55	47	48	54
Lib Dem	30	26	18	24	27
UKIP	5	3	1	1	3
Others	22	22	22	22	22

The opinion pollster seats forecasts convert into putting the Conservatives on 278 seats, and Labour on 272 seats, a swing from Labour to Conservatives of just 4 seats in one week. The calculations for what form a coalition government could take are extremely complicated if not impossible without resorting to the disastrous outcome that involves the SNP who are hell bent on destroying the UK i.e.

Conservatives + Lib Dems (24) = 302 - FAIL

Add DUP 8 seats = 310 - FAIL

Whilst Labour + Lib Dems (24) = 296 - FAIL

Which means the ONLY viable / workable outcome would be one that involves the SNP i.e. Labour + SNP (51) =323 - SUCCESS

The following are individual forecaster trends and my analysis.

May2015.com (New Statesman)

	MO 28th Feb	26th Apr	20th Apr	12th Apr	7th Apr	31st Mar	28th Mar	21st Mar	12th Mar	5th Mar	26th Feb	10th Feb
Conservative	296	272	271	267	271	278	271	274	281	255	270	270
Labour	262	271	273	277	273	265	273	271	263	283	271	272
SNP	35	55	55	54	54	55	55	55	55	55	56	56
Lib Dem	30	26	25	26	26	25	24	24	24		26	25
UKIP	5	3	3	3	3	4	3	3	4		4	4
Others	22	22	22	22	22	22	22	22

Literally flip flops between Labour and Conservative from week to week within a tight 10 seat range of one another.

Electoralcalculus.co.uk

	MO 28th Feb	26th Apr	19th Apr	12th Apr	7th Apr	29th Mar	22nd Mar	14th Mar	9th Mar	27th Feb	30th Jan
Conservative	296	279	282	277	275	274	267	262	267	265	265
Labour	262	282	280	284	286	287	300	301	298	301	297
SNP	35	47	48	48	48	48	48	46	55	46	50
Lib Dem	30	18	17	17	17	17	17	17		15	17
UKIP	5	1	1	2	2	2	1	1		1	1
Others	22	22	22	22	22	22	22

Have consistently exhibited a strong bias towards Labour which has been slowly eroding though is likely to persist into election day.

ElectionForecast.co.uk

	MO 28th Feb	27th Apr	20th Apr	13th Apr	8th Apr	30th Mar	22nd Mar	11th Mar	25th Feb	13th Feb
Conservative	296	286	281	283	287	282	286	295	284	280
Labour	262	267	275	274	270	281	276	267	279	283
SNP	35	48	43	42	43	36	39	42	39	37
Lib Dem	30	24	26	27	27	27	26	24	25	27
UKIP	5	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	2
Others	22	22	22	22	22	23	22

Tends to consistently put the Conservatives in a clear seats lead, so tends to most closely reflect my own long standing forecast.

The Guardian

	MO 28th Feb	27th Apr	20th Apr	13th Apr	8th Apr	31st Mar	29th Mar	18th Mar	11th Mar	27th Feb	28th Jan
Conservative	296	274	270	271	272	278	275	277	279	276	273
Labour	262	270	271	271	273	271	271	269	266	271	273
SNP	35	54	55	51	51	50	53	53	52	51	49
Lib Dem	30	27	28	28	28	25	25	25	27	27	28
UKIP	5	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	5
Others	22	22	22	22	22	22	22	22

Tends to exhibit a marginal advantage to the Conservatives within a tight 10 seat band.

Seats Forecast Trend Analysis

The opinion polls have finally started to weakly trend in favour of the Conservative party, which if continues implies that the Conservatives will be the largest party on election day on about 283 seat with Labour trailing on about 268 seats, which remains contrary to my long standing forecast expectations for the Tories to lead on at least 296 seats with Labour on 262 seats.

Another continuing point of difference is that pollsters continue to grossly over estimate the number of seats the SNP will win i.e. typically 48-55, against my expectations of just 35.

If the opinion polls trend does pan out then the only workable majority would be Labour 268 + SNP 52 + Plaid Cymru 5 for a 325 seat messy nationalists driven weak Labour minority government. Which implies that with just 10 days it may now be too late for the Conservatives to achieve critical mass of around 296 seats, that is unless the Conservative opinion poll trend starts to accelerate right into election day.

Conclusion

The current opinion poll projections confirm my longstanding conclusion that the polls remain wrong as they continue to persistently under estimate the number of seats I expect the Conservatives to win by a wide margin, who in my opinion could still even win an outright majority on May 7th. The obvious reason why is because on election day most people when faced with the stark choice of between gambling on Ed Milliband-Sturgeon etc. Axis, will opt for a continuation of the steady as she goes Cameron-Clegg Coalition.

So today when polled, voters without giving too much thought will usually lean towards an opposition party, but come actually marking ones cross on election day then more thought will go into that decision, especially when English voters consider the ramifications of an SNP dictatorship for the next five years, something that pollsters are FAILING to pickup upon i.e. English fears of an Labour-SNP government that will encourage many floating voters to turn to the Conservatives and Lib Dems.

UK General Election Forecast 2015

In terms of what I actually see as the most probable outcome for the general election, I refer to my in-depth analysis of 28th Feb:

28 Feb 2015 - UK General Election 2015 Seats Forecast - Who Will Win?
28 Feb 2015 - UK General Election 2015 - Forecasting Seats for SNP, LIb-Dems, UKIP and Others

UK General Election May 2015 Forecast Conclusion

My forecast conclusion is for the Conservatives to win 296 seats at the May 7th general election, Labour 2nd on 262 seats, with the full seats per political party breakdown as follows:

Therefore the most probable outcome is for a continuation of the ConDem Coalition government on 326 seats (296+30) where any shortfall would likely find support from the DUP's 8 seats.

The alternative is for a truly messy Lab-Lib SNP supported chaotic government on 327 seats (262+30+35) which in my opinion would be a truly disastrous outcome for Britain, nearly as bad as if Scotland had voted for independence last September.

Another possibility is that should the Conservatives do better than forecast i.e. secure over 300 seats but still fail to win an overall majority, then they may chose to go it alone with the plan to work towards winning a May 2016 general election.

The bottom line is that the opinion polls do not reflect how people will actually vote on May 7th when they are faced with a stark choice of steady as she goes ConDem government or take a huge gamble on Ed Milliband's Labour party. So in my opinion several millions of voters will chose to play it safe with ConDem which thus is the most probable outcome.

Also available a youtube video version of my forecast:

Find out if the Lib-Dem Leader Nick Clegg can win / retain his Sheffield Hallam constituency seat:

And also see my recent video analysis that explains Britain's housing crisis.

The bottom line is that the SNP high command may have mellowed their message as they keep Alex Salmond off the airwaves in the run up to the election. However post election the SNP will ONLY act in the interests of Scotland, a defacto dictatorship imposed on England that not a single English voter will have voted for! This truly is a recipe for disaster as we may see a series of revolts amongst England's wage slaves in the awake of what would transpire. Though my consistent forecast is one of the SNP failing to win anywhere near the 55 seats that pollsters suggest, instead a Conservative led minority government is still the most probable outcome, or maybe I am just hoping Britain manages to avoid an election catastrophe?

Source and Comments: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article50428.html

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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