Why Labour Cannot Win Sheffield Hallam and other Lib-Dem / Conservative Key Marginal Seats
ElectionOracle / UK General Election Apr 29, 2015 - 10:43 AM GMTBy: Nadeem_Walayat
The pollsters and political pundits paint a picture of Labour standing a good chance of winning Nick Clegg's Sheffield Hallam seat that illustrates the national battle that Labour is engaged in against the Lib-Dems and Conservatives in key marginal seats across England which means that despite losing as many as 40 of their 41 Scottish MP's to the SNP, Labour still hopes to have won enough seats in England and Wales to form a minority government under the strings of the SNP.
Sheffield Hallam Lord Ashcroft Opinion Poll
Conservative 16%
Labour 36%
Liberal Democrat 34%
UKIP 7%
Green 6%
Other 1%
Whilst the earlier Survation poll puts Nick Clegg 10% behind the Labour candidate (Survation - LAB 33%, LD 23%, CON 22%, GREEN 12%, UKIP 9%).
Sheffield Hallam illustrates what is playing out in the national polls that persistently conclude in the failure of the Conservatives / Lib Dems to win enough seats for the coalition to continue. Therefore resulting in the only workable outcome being one of an Labour SNP supported government.
 |
Market Oracle | May2015 .com | Electoralcalculus .co.uk | ElectionForecast .co.uk | The Guardian |
28th Feb |
26th Apr | 26th Apr | 27th Apr | 27th Apr | |
| Conservative | 296 | 272 | 279 | 286 | 274 |
| Labour | 262 | 271 | 282 | 267 | 270 |
| SNP | 35 | 55 | 47 | 48 | 54 |
| Lib Dem | 30 | 26 | 18 | 24 | 27 |
| UKIP | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| Others | 22 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 22 |
Conservatives + Lib Dems (24) = 302 - FAIL
Add DUP 8 seats = 310 - FAIL
Labour + Lib Dems (24) = 296 - FAIL
Labour + SNP (51) =323 - SUCCESS
However, the critical problem that Labour faces and which is not being factored into the opinion polls is that at the constituency level, Labour is actually NOT in a battle against the Liberal Democrats or the Conservatives as I explained at length in constituency level video analysis of Nick Clegg's Sheffield Hallam seat, an election battle against the Labour candidate Oliver Coppard who apparently leads in the polls by 2%.
Which means that whilst the following may be the perception of the mainstream media and most political pundits for Sheffield Hallam and many other Labour target seats -
Instead the reality following 5 years of coalition government is one of this -
Therefore Labour is NOT fighting election battles against the Lib-Dems or the Conservatives but rather they are effectively battling against the Coalition party. Which means that in this general election we will witness tactical voting on a far greater scale amongst Lib-Dems and Conservatives than we saw at the 2010 general election, the consequences of which will mean that both the Lib Dems and Conservatives will retain many more seats than the opinion polls suggest i.e. that Nick Clegg rather than being at risk of losing his seat, in reality will win with a sizable majority of at least 5000 votes as Conservative voters will in great numbers vote for the Lib-Dems in those seats where the Conservatives are not the main competitor so as to increase the probability for the continuation of the coalition government.
So for the Lib-dems the real election battleground will be where the Conservatives are the main competitor as the Tories are seeking to take at least 15 seats from the Lib Dems. Whilst at the same time trying to ensure the Lib-dems retain as many seats as possible where Labour is second, and conversely Lib Dem voters whilst to a lesser extent are also likely to vote for the Tory candidate where Labour is opposing, especially as the prospects of a Labour- SNP outcome sends shivers down the spines of many English Labour and Lib-Dem voters. This will also prompt many potential UKIP voters to vote Conservative or Lib Dem rather than risk a Labour - SNP nightmare.
This reinforces my long-standing view that the opinion polls are wrong as they continue to persistently under estimate the number of seats the Conservatives and Lib-dems will actually win by a wide margin.
In terms of what I actually see as the most probable outcome for the general election, I refer to my in-depth analysis of 28th Feb:
- 28 Feb 2015 - UK General Election 2015 Seats Forecast - Who Will Win?
- 28 Feb 2015 - UK General Election 2015 - Forecasting Seats for SNP, LIb-Dems, UKIP and Others
UK General Election May 2015 Forecast Conclusion
My forecast conclusion is for the Conservatives to win 296 seats at the May 7th general election, Labour 2nd on 262 seats, with the full seats per political party breakdown as follows:
Therefore the most probable outcome is for a continuation of the ConDem Coalition government on 326 seats (296+30) where any shortfall would likely find support from the DUP's 8 seats.
The alternative is for a truly messy Lab-Lib SNP supported chaotic government on 327 seats (262+30+35) which in my opinion would be a truly disastrous outcome for Britain, nearly as bad as if Scotland had voted for independence last September.
Another possibility is that should the Conservatives do better than forecast i.e. secure over 300 seats but still fail to win an overall majority, then they may chose to go it alone with the plan to work towards winning a May 2016 general election.
The bottom line is that the opinion polls do not reflect how people will actually vote on May 7th when they are faced with a stark choice of steady as she goes ConDem government or take a huge gamble on Ed Milliband's Labour party. So in my opinion several millions of voters will chose to play it safe with ConDem which thus is the most probable outcome.
Also available a youtube video version of my forecast:
Also see my recent video analysis that explains Britain's housing crisis.
The bottom line is that in the countdown to election day expect Lib Dem and Conservative politicians to increasingly promote the continuation of the Coalition against the dangers of a Labour SNP election outcome which will prompt many more Tory and Lib dem voters to vote tactically so that far fewer seats are lost to Labour. Whilst in Scotland tactical voting amongst the 55% anti-independence voters ensures that the SNP will do nowhere near as well as the 50-55 seats that the opinion polls suggest.
Source and Comments: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article50454.html
By Nadeem Walayat
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Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.
Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk
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