Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Stock Markets and the History Chart of the End of the World (With Presidential Cycles) - 28th Aug 20
2.Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook... AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels and Valuations Q3 2020 - 31st Aug 20
3.The Inflation Mega-trend is Going Hyper! - 11th Sep 20
4.Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
5.What's Driving Gold, Silver and What's Next? - 3rd Sep 20
6.QE4EVER! - 9th Sep 20
7.Gold Price Trend Forecast Analysis - Part1 - 7th Sep 20
8.The Fed May “Cause” The Next Stock Market Crash - 3rd Sep 20
9.Bitcoin Price Crash - You Will be Suprised What Happens Next - 7th Sep 20
10.NVIDIA Stock Price Soars on RTX 3000 Cornering the GPU Market for next 2 years! - 3rd Sep 20
Last 7 days
General Artificial Intelligence Was BORN in 2020! GPT-3, Deep Mind - 20th Jan 21
Bitcoin Price Crash: FCA Warning Was a Slap in the Face. But Not the Cause - 20th Jan 21
US Coronavirus Pandemic 2021 - We’re Going to Need More Than a Vaccine - 20th Jan 21
The Biggest Biotech Story Of 2021? - 20th Jan 21
Biden Bailout, Democrat Takeover to Drive Americans into Gold - 20th Jan 21
Pandemic 2020 Is Gone! Will 2021 Be Better for Gold? - 20th Jan 21
Trump and Coronavirus Pandemic Final US Catastrophe 2021 - 19th Jan 21
How To Find Market Momentum Trades for Explosive Gains - 19th Jan 21
Cryptos: 5 Simple Strategies to Catch the Next Opportunity - 19th Jan 21
Who Will NEXT Be Removed from the Internet? - 19th Jan 21
This Small Company Could Revolutionize The Trillion-Dollar Drug Sector - 19th Jan 21
Gold/SPX Ratio and the Gold Stock Case - 18th Jan 21
More Stock Market Speculative Signs, Energy Rebound, Commodities Breakout - 18th Jan 21
Higher Yields Hit Gold Price, But for How Long? - 18th Jan 21
Some Basic Facts About Forex Trading - 18th Jan 21
Custom Build PC 2021 - Ryzen 5950x, RTX 3080, 64gb DDR4 Specs - Scan Computers 3SX Order Day 11 - 17th Jan 21
UK Car MOT Covid-19 Lockdown Extension 2021 - 17th Jan 21
Why Nvidia Is My “Slam Dunk” Stock Investment for the Decade - 16th Jan 21
Three Financial Markets Price Drivers in a Globalized World - 16th Jan 21
Sheffield Turns Coronavirus Tide, Covid-19 Infections Half Rest of England, implies Fast Pandemic Recovery - 16th Jan 21
Covid and Democrat Blue Wave Beats Gold - 15th Jan 21
On Regime Change, Reputations, the Markets, and Gold and Silver - 15th Jan 21
US Coronavirus Pandemic Final Catastrophe 2021 - 15th Jan 21
The World’s Next Great Onshore Oil Discovery Could Be Here - 15th Jan 21
UK Coronavirus Final Pandemic Catastrophe 2021 - 14th Jan 21
Here's Why Blind Contrarianism Investing Failed in 2020 - 14th Jan 21
US Yield Curve Relentlessly Steepens, Whilst Gold Price Builds a Handle - 14th Jan 21
NEW UK MOT Extensions or has my Car Plate Been Cloned? - 14th Jan 21
How to Save Money While Decorating Your First House - 14th Jan 21
Car Number Plate Cloned Detective Work - PY16 JXV - 14th Jan 21
Big Oil Missed This, Now It Could Be Worth Billions - 14th Jan 21
Are you a Forex trader who needs a bank account? We have the solution! - 14th Jan 21
Finetero Review – Accurate and Efficient Stock Trading Services? - 14th Jan 21
Gold Price Big Picture Trend Forecast 2021 - 13th Jan 21
Are Covid Lockdowns Bullish or Bearish for Stocks? FTSE 100 in Focus - 13th Jan 21
CONgress "Insurrection" Is Just the Latest False Flag Event from the Globalists - 13th Jan 21
Reflation Trade Heating Up - 13th Jan 21
The Most Important Oil Find Of The Next Decade Could Be Here - 13th Jan 21
Work From Home £10,000 Office Tour – Workspace + Desk Setup 2021 Top Tips - 12th Jan 21
Collect a Bitcoin Dividend Without Owning the King of Cryptos - 12th Jan 21
The BAN Hotlist trade setups show incredible success at the start of 2021, learn how you can too! - 12th Jan 21
Stocks, Bitcoin, Gold – How Much Are They Worth? - 12th Jan 21
SPX Short-term Top Imminent - 12th Jan 21
Is This The Most Exciting Oil Play Of 2021? - 12th Jan 21
Why 2021 Will Be the Year Self-Driving Cars Go Mainstream - 11th Jan 21
Gold Began 2021 With a Bang, Only to Plunge - 11th Jan 21
How to Test Your GPU Temperatures - Running Too Hot - GTX 1650 - Overclockers UK - 11th Jan 21
Life Lesson - The Early Bird Catches the Worm - 11th Jan 21
Precious Metals rally early in 2021 - 11th Jan 21
The Most Exciting Oil Stock For 2021 - 11th Jan 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

FIRST ACCESS to Nadeem Walayat’s Analysis and Trend Forecasts

Gold and Silver End-Quarter Influences

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015 Oct 02, 2015 - 04:27 PM GMT

By: Alasdair_Macleod

Commodities

In a generally quiet week, gold and silver prices were marked down in thin trade towards the quarter-end, when traders make up their books, with gold falling $32 to $1114.5, and silver by 58 cents by the close on Thursday night. Prices opened lower in early European trade, with gold less than $10 from the $1100 level.


Open interest in both metals on Comex barely changed, yet anecdotal reports of continuing demand for physical gold from all over Asia persists. Chinese demand, measured by deliveries to the public through the Shanghai Gold Exchange is up over 35% so far this year compared with the same period last year. The annual progression on a monthly basis is shown in the next chart.

SGE Monthly Gold Deliveries 2011-2015

The final number for September will not be available for another week or so, but it is likely to be nearly 250 tonnes. So since January 2011, total gold delivered is nearly 8,500 tonnes, a staggering amount.

This is despite a continuing weakness in some Asian currencies, such as the Turkish lira, which makes gold more expensive in local terms for much of Asia Minor. Separately the Peoples Bank of China announced an addition to its gold reserves of 16.17 tonnes in August. In silver, according to a report filed with Reuters, coin demand "is absolutely through the roof", a manager at Perth Mint was quoted as saying. In this case it is manufacturing capacity that is to blame for delays in supply, and at the US mint at Westpoint, the plant is working three shifts and paying staff overtime to keep up with demand for Silver Eagles.

While the ordinary person shows a growing uneasiness over the financial outlook, there is still confusion over US interest rate policy, with some mainstream investment banks still expecting the Fed to raise the Fed Funds Rate in December. Hard evidence of both disappointing US economic performance and the destruction a strong dollar has wreaked on commodities and emerging market economies suggests the future offers deflation, and not inflation. It is therefore a mystery why views that US rates will rise persist.

The lack of cogent thinking (or is it deliberate disinformation?) is never a good sign for a stable market outlook. It suggests that multiple markets are mispriced, a situation that is always corrected. Nor is this something under the control of central banks, other government agencies, or those who deal on their coat-tails. Mr Market always wins in the end. Therefore, if what is going on in precious metals markets, equity and bond markets, as well as currencies are at odds with financial reality, they are likely to adjust suddenly and together.

The persistent distortion whereby gold is being cleaned out of western vaults while futures traders depress the price even further is symptomatic with this loss of reality. This is not to say a rise in the gold price is immenent, only the bears are on borrowed time.

Next week

Monday. Eurozone: Markit Composite PMI (Final). UK: Market/CIPS UK Services PMI. US: Markit Composite PMI (Final), Labour Market Conditions, Non-Manufacturing Business Activity, Non-Manufacturing Prices.
Tuesday. US: Balance of Trade
Wednesday. Japan: Interest Rate Decision, Leading Index. UK: Manufacturing Production, Industrial Production. US: Mortgage Applications, Consumer Credit
Thursday. Japan: Machinery Orders, Current Account. UK: Halifax House Price Index, BoE Interest Rate Decision. US: Initial Jobless Claims.
Friday. UK: Construction Output, Trade Balance. US: Import Prices, Export Prices, Wholesale Inventories.

Alasdair Macleod

Head of research, GoldMoney

Alasdair.Macleod@GoldMoney.com

Alasdair Macleod runs FinanceAndEconomics.org, a website dedicated to sound money and demystifying finance and economics. Alasdair has a background as a stockbroker, banker and economist. He is also a contributor to GoldMoney - The best way to buy gold online.

© 2015 Copyright Alasdair Macleod - All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Alasdair Macleod Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules