Crude gained $2.58 last week to close at 38.50 - on the declining trendline and the 50% retracement of the October decline. My bandwidth indicator has turned down indicating that the rally is long-in-the-tooth. On Friday, crude tested 39.00 which makes the February rally equal to 150% of the January rally; a natural stopping point.

The daily Coppock is overbought warning of a downturn in crude but it is also high enough to characterize it as confirming the high in crude (i.e. higher highs ahead after the next wave down).

Try a "sneak-peek " this month at Seattle Technical Advisors.com

Ed Carlson, author of George Lindsay and the Art of Technical Analysis, and his new book, George Lindsay's An Aid to Timing is an independent trader, consultant, and Chartered Market Technician (CMT) based in Seattle. Carlson manages the website Seattle Technical Advisors.com, where he publishes daily and weekly commentary. He spent twenty years as a stockbroker and holds an M.B.A. from Wichita State University.

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