Following today's retail sales alleged blowout, to which treasury yields actually declined, comes a big GDP upgrade by the Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model vs. a smaller jump by the New York Fed Nowcast Model.

The difference between the forecasts is now a whopping 1.6 percentage points.

Atlanta Fed GDPNow

Latest forecast: 2.8 percent -- May 13, 2016

GDPNow

"The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2016 is 2.8 percent on May 13, up from 2.2 percent on May 10. After this morning's retail sales report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the forecast for second-quarter real consumer spending growth increased from 3.0 percent to 3.7 percent."

New York Fed Nowcast

NY FED Nowcast

"The FRBNY Staff Nowcast for GDP growth in 2016:Q2 remains moderate at 1.2%."

At least one of these is wildly off the mark.

Given the bond market's reaction to today's retail sales numbers, I suggest it's more likely GDPNow missed the mark.

Bond Market Reaction

Bond Yields

Bond yields rallied and gold was flat despite the fact the US dollar index rose 0.63%. Numbers as of 11:30 AM central.

The bond market does not think much of today's retail sales report, and neither do I.

By Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Mike Shedlock / Mish is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management . Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.

Visit Sitka Pacific's Account Management Page to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

I do weekly podcasts every Thursday on HoweStreet and a brief 7 minute segment on Saturday on CKNW AM 980 in Vancouver.

When not writing about stocks or the economy I spends a great deal of time on photography and in the garden. I have over 80 magazine and book cover credits. Some of my Wisconsin and gardening images can be seen at MichaelShedlock.com .

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Mike Shedlock Archive

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

The Market Oracle is a FREE Financial Markets Forecasting & Analysis web-site.
(c) 2005-2024 MarketOracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd) - Market Oracle Ltd asserts copyright on all articles authored by our editorial team and all comments posted. Any and all information provided within the web-site, is for general information purposes only and Market Oracle Ltd do not warrant the accuracy, timeliness or suitability of any information provided on this site. nor is or shall be deemed to constitute, financial or any other advice or recommendation by us. and are also not meant to be investment advice or solicitation or recommendation to establish market positions. We do not give investment advice and our comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to enter into a market position either stock, option, futures contract, bonds, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. We recommend that independent professional advice is obtained before you make any investment or trading decisions. By using this site you agree to this sites Terms of Use. From time to time we promote or endorse certain products / services that we believe are worthy of your time and attention. In return for that endorsement and only in the cases where you purchase directly though us may we be compensated by the producers of those products.

Atlanta Fed GDPNow +2.8% vs. New York Fed Nowcast +1.2%