Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
S&P 500 – Is a 5% Correction Enough? - 6th Dec 21
Global Stock Markets It’s Do-Or-Die Time - 6th Dec 21
Hawks Triumph, Doves Lose, Gold Bulls Cry! - 6th Dec 21
How Stock Investors Can Cash in on President Biden’s new Climate Plan - 6th Dec 21
The Lithium Tech That Could Send The EV Boom Into Overdrive - 6th Dec 21
How Stagflation Effects Stocks - 5th Dec 21
Bitcoin FLASH CRASH! Cryptos Blood Bath as Exchanges Run Stops, An Early Christmas Present for Some? - 5th Dec 21
TESCO Pre Omicron Panic Christmas Decorations Festive Shop 2021 - 5th Dec 21
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Into Mid 2022 - 4th Dec 21
INVESTING LESSON - Give your Portfolio Some Breathing Space - 4th Dec 21
Don’t Get Yourself Into a Bull Trap With Gold - 4th Dec 21
GOLD HAS LOTS OF POTENTIAL DOWNSIDE - 4th Dec 21
4 Tips To Help You Take Better Care Of Your Personal Finances- 4th Dec 21
What Is A Golden Cross Pattern In Trading? - 4th Dec 21
Bitcoin Price TRIGGER for Accumulating Into Alt Coins for 2022 Price Explosion - Part 2 - 3rd Dec 21
Stock Market Major Turning Point Taking Place - 3rd Dec 21
The Masters of the Universe and Gold - 3rd Dec 21
This simple Stock Market mindset shift could help you make millions - 3rd Dec 21
Will the Glasgow Summit (COP26) Affect Energy Prices? - 3rd Dec 21
Peloton 35% CRASH a Lesson of What Happens When One Over Pays for a Loss Making Growth Stock - 1st Dec 21
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: I Fear For Retirees For The Next 20 Years - 1st Dec 21 t
Will the Anointed Finanical Experts Get It Wrong Again? - 1st Dec 21
Main Differences Between the UK and Canadian Gaming Markets - 1st Dec 21
Bitcoin Price TRIGGER for Accumulating Into Alt Coins for 2022 Price Explosion - 30th Nov 21
Omicron Covid Wave 4 Impact on Financial Markets - 30th Nov 21
Can You Hear It? That’s the Crowd Booing Gold’s Downturn - 30th Nov 21
Economic and Market Impacts of Omicron Strain Covid 4th Wave - 30th Nov 21
Stock Market Historical Trends Suggest A Strengthening Bullish Trend In December - 30th Nov 21
Crypto Market Analysis: What Trading Will Look Like in 2022 for Novice and Veteran Traders? - 30th Nov 21
Best Stocks for Investing to Profit form the Metaverse and Get Rich - 29th Nov 21
Should You Invest In Real Estate In 2021? - 29th Nov 21
Silver Long-term Trend Analysis - 28th Nov 21
Silver Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 28th Nov 21
Crude Oil Didn’t Like Thanksgiving Turkey This Year - 28th Nov 21
Sheffield First Snow Winter 2021 - Snowballs and Snowmen Fun - 28th Nov 21
Stock Market Investing LESSON - Buying Value - 27th Nov 21
Corsair MP600 NVME M.2 SSD 66% Performance Loss After 6 Months of Use - Benchmark Tests - 27th Nov 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Stock Market Quiet Week...Volatile But Quiet...

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016 Sep 17, 2016 - 11:18 AM GMT

By: Jack_Steiman

Stock-Markets

The week was wild, but quiet when all was said and done. Last Friday saw a strong move lower with no follow-through to the down side this week by the bears. Nothing unusual about that. The bears haven't followed through meaningfully in longer than I can remember. That said, this week saw the market move mostly lateral, meaning the bulls didn't just blast things right back up as they usually do with no resistance from the bears. The bears are fighting a little bit. More than we've seen in recent months.


The volatility is higher, due to the behavior in the VIX from last week's down side action. It's not as boring now as it was months prior. At least we're not trading day after day in a very tiny range of one percent or less. Two months of that was enough thankfully. I think folks like the volatility but let's be honest, going nowhere doesn't make trading much easier. One could say a bear flag is forming short-term, but that's irrelevant for one major reason. Fed Yellen.

Here she comes again with yet another "no-rate-hike" statement for our listening pleasure come next Wednesday. The action all of this week was due mostly to the market waiting to hear what fed Yellen will do to the fed market. Nothing matters any longer. Only the fed matters, and that's really sad-but-true statement about our current market. The market is sitting mostly flat as it awaits the good tidings from the mouth of our market leader. Nothing much will happen until she talks, and lets us all know what the future holds in terms of rates. The market on-hold is so boring, but so common now. So, yes, it's all about next Wednesday, so place your Russian roulette bets.

I think I know what Fed Yellen will say Wednesday. I think the market knows what she will say on Wednesday. The market is not expecting a rate hike. It's not going to happen for three simple reasons. ISM Manufacturing Report, ISM Services, and Retail Sales. All three reports were a disaster. Big misses the last week plus, and those misses were all on the most important aspects of our current economy. Everything is slowing, and doing so quite dramatically. We all know how she hates to raise rates when things are going well, so the odds of her raising rates, in my opinion, are zero. I could always be wrong, but that's my thinking.

In Yellen's mind, a declining economy must be in concert with near zero interest rates. My guess is, she will also mention, once again, about how she will be watching future data on the economy, meaning she's not raising rates this year in all likelihood. She will need to see many consecutive months of improvement in all the key areas, and right now we're going the wrong way. The real question is what the market will do when she says no rate hike and talks about being data dependent. Will the market finally say it doesn't care and start moving towards truth, or will it stay in Disneyland? We'll find out soon enough. History says the market will blast up on the news. I'm not so sure this time, but we'll know on Wednesday.

You really have to wonder how a market can hang in there with news on the economy being so bad. I think the real concern in many ways is away from the economy. The real world says folks are struggling and doing so in a big way. Manufacturing is in a technical recession, based on it being below 50.0. A 49-reading a week is back. Services, which is most of our economy these days, went from 58 down to 51. A scary drop in such a small amount of time. Retail sales went away. The precipitous drop out of the blue has to be very concerning for our economy without any concerns for our few market. What is really going on? Rates have been low forever. There have been endless QE programs. Part of Europe, and all of Japan, is dealing with negative rates, yet nothing is coming alive economically on global level. Nothing seems to be working, so you have to wonder what the fed is thinking. None of her tricks are working. Central bankers around the world just can't get anything to work.

The real concern is to take care of the public, and that seems to be something that's not happening and many are suffering. I have no answers nor does the fed, it seems. That said, we'll see what Wednesday brings and how the market reacts.
Keeping it light here.

Peace,

Jack

Jack Steiman is author of SwingTradeOnline.com ( www.swingtradeonline.com ). Former columnist for TheStreet.com, Jack is renowned for calling major shifts in the market, including the market bottom in mid-2002 and the market top in October 2007.

Sign up for a Free 15-Day Trial to SwingTradeOnline.com!

© 2016 SwingTradeOnline.com

Mr. Steiman's commentaries and index analysis represent his own opinions and should not be relied upon for purposes of effecting securities transactions or other investing strategies, nor should they be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy any security. You should not interpret Mr. Steiman's opinions as constituting investment advice. Trades mentioned on the site are hypothetical, not actual, positions.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in