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Gold Surges on Greenspan's Once In a Century Crisis Warning

Commodities / Gold & Silver Aug 01, 2008 - 06:56 AM GMT

By: Mark_OByrne

Commodities Gold finished trading in New York yesterday at $913.70,  up $10.70  and silver was  up  37  cents to $17.72 . Gold surged on the COMEX open after initial jobless claims rose sharply to their highest level in 5 years. Gold subsequently gradually sold off and the slow sell off  continued in electronic trading and in Asian and early European trading. 


Gold's weakness is likely due to continuing weakness in oil and commodity markets with the Reuters-Jefferies CRB Index having experienced it's largely monthly drop in 28 years. It is down some 10% which while a sharp correction is small in comparison to some of the far greater losses in equity markets. It seems likely that this is another correction and commodities may rally again. But a serious global recession would see price falls on demand destruction.

However, gold's safe haven attributes should see it decouple from oil and commodities in the coming months. Gold remains up more than 9% year to date and some 36% in the last 12 months and this is a sterling performance in the light of the sharp falls seen in equity and property markets.

While the s hort term trend remains down  we expect a summer low to have been reached or to be reached in  the coming days prior to a significant move upwards in mid to late August and into gold's strong months - September and October.

Continuing concerns regarding the health of the US and global economy should result in gold remaining above s trong support  which remains at the  rising 200 day moving average at $887.

Greenspan's Issues "Once in a Century Crisis" Warning
Alan Greenspan's frank comments about the grave nature of the growing risks facing the US financial system and economy also contributed to increasing risk aversion as seen in falling equity markets in the US, Asia and in Europe this morning.

Greenspan said that the current financial crisis was continuing and could deepen and it is a "once in a century" crisis tied to the housing market's plunge and that the US teeters on the brink of a recession. Given the extent of the turmoil, he said he would be surprised if there was no recession. Greenspan said that  falling home prices were "nowhere near the bottom." He also expressed support for the idea of nationalizing mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, saying they were a "major accident waiting to happen."

Greenspan's grim warning is ironic as he had a significant role in creating the cheap money Nasdaq and housing bubbles and unregulated structured vehicle and derivatives market that has gotten the world into this current crisis. Also it is worth noting that this is the same ex Fed chairman who on June 13 said "the worst is over in the financial crisis or will be very soon." Although Greenspan is far from alone in this regard as many on Wall Street - executives, analysts and commentators made similar ludicrous pronunciations that have proved entirely wrong.

It is likely that Greenspan realises how bad the economy is likely to deteriorate and is "covering himself" and when the economy does deteriorate he can claim that he clearly warned of the risks.

Whether this is an exercise in "damage limitation" or not is beside the point - what is the point is that Greenspan's views are true and should be heeded by market participants if they wish to prosper in the coming months. 

Today's Data and Influences
Markets await  th e week's key non-farm payroll release at 13.30 GMT today . The consensus expectation is for a reading of 75,000 jobs lost close to last months negative reading of 62,000. But yesterday's sharp jump in weekly jobless claims has led to concern regarding this afternoon's non-farm payrolls report. A disappointing number will likely see stocks and the dollar under pressure and gold remain firm to strong. A less bad number could see more risk appetite and opposite price movements in stocks, the dollar and gold. 

Gold and Silver
Gold is trading at $9 1 0 .20/9 1 0 .70 per ounce (1 1 30 GMT).
Silver is trading at $17. 5 9 /17. 64 per ounce (1 1 30   GMT) .

PGMs
Platinum is trading at $17 14 /17 20 per ounce (1 1 30   GMT).
Palladium is trading at $3 72 /3 77 per ounce (1 1 30   GMT).

By Mark O'Byrne, Executive Director

Gold Investments
63 Fitzwilliam Square
Dublin 2
Ireland
Ph +353 1 6325010
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Email info@gold.ie
Web www.gold.ie
Gold and Silver Investments Limited
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London,
EC3V 3ND
United Kingdom
Ph +44 (0) 207 0604653
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Email info@www.goldassets.co.uk
Web www.goldassets.co.uk

Gold and Silver Investments Ltd. have been awarded the MoneyMate and Investor Magazine Financial Analyst of 2006.

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Gold and Silver Investments Limited hope to inform our clientele of important financial and economic developments and thus help our clientele and prospective clientele understand our rapidly changing global economy and the implications for their livelihoods and wealth.
We focus on the medium and long term global macroeconomic trends and how they pertain to the precious metal markets and our clienteles savings, investments and livelihoods. We emphasise prudence, safety and security as they are of paramount importance in the preservation of wealth.

Financial Regulation: Gold & Silver Investments Limited trading as Gold Investments is regulated by the Financial Regulator as a multi-agency intermediary. Our Financial Regulator Reference Number is 39656. Gold Investments is registered in the Companies Registration Office under Company number 377252 . Registered for VAT under number 6397252A . Codes of Conduct are imposed by the Financial Regulator and can be accessed at www.financialregulator.ie or from the Financial Regulator at PO Box 9138, College Green, Dublin 2, Ireland. Property, Commodities and Precious Metals are not regulated by the Financial Regulator

Disclaimer: The information in this document has been obtained from sources, which we believe to be reliable. We cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. It does not constitute a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any investment. Any person acting on the information contained in this document does so at their own risk. Recommendations in this document may not be suitable for all investors. Individual circumstances should be considered before a decision to invest is taken. Investors should note the following: The value of investments may fall or rise against investors' interests. Income levels from investments may fluctuate. Changes in exchange rates may have an adverse effect on the value of, or income from, investments denominated in foreign currencies. Past experience is not necessarily a guide to future performance.

All the opinions expressed herein are solely those of Gold & Silver Investments Limited and not those of the Perth Mint. They do not reflect the views of the Perth Mint and the Perth Mint accepts no legal liability or responsibility for any claims made or opinions expressed herein.

Mark O'Byrne Archive

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