London Bridge Terror Attack 5 Seats Election Boost for Conservative Party
ElectionOracle / UK General Election Jun 04, 2017 - 01:30 AM GMTBy: Nadeem_Walayat
London has just been hit by another barbaric terror attack that was not even 10 days on from the horrific Manchester bombing that killed many children. The latest attack is just 5 days away from the General Election. Whilst information is very sketchy at this time barely an hour on form the London Met Police declared 2 terror related incidents at London Bridge and Borough Market. Nevertheless armed police have opened fire on at least 3 suspects, of which at least 2 are dead and 1 is being hunted. The police also announced that there are civilian causalities, though the scale of causalities is unknown at this time which hopefully will not be on the scale of Manchester.
And here is a youtube video clip early on in the incident, showing police entering a bar.
Whilst the Met police tweeted what people should do :
Given the timing of this attack just days before the people of Britain go to polls then undoubtedly it is timed to have an impact on the UK general election. So whilst the likes of YouGov forecast that the Conservatives could lose the election by retaining only 308 seats of their current total of 331, with Labour on 261. Which I strongly disagree with i.e. as a minimum I am expecting the Conservatives to increase their seats total as per my series of analysis in the BrExit election series.
Of which my most recent analysis is on what UK house prices forecast for the outcome of the UK general election -
03 Jun 2017 - UK House Prices Forecast General Election 2017 Conservative Seats Result
UK House Prices Accurately Forecast 2015 Election Result
My market skewed perception had accurately forecast the outcome of the UK General Election based on my house prices trend trajectory forecast a good 18 months before voting day!
30 Dec 2013 - UK House Prices Forecast 2014 to 2018, Inflation, Trend Trajectory and General Election 2015
UK General Election Forecast 2015
In terms of the 'fixed' May 2015 general election, the implications of 10% per annum house price inflation for another 18 months, that builds on the housing bull market of the previous 12 months and on the embryonic bull market of 2012 are that probability strongly favours an outright Conservative election victory.
The following graph attempts to fine tune the outcome of the next general election by utilising the more conservative current house prices momentum of 8.5% which has many implications for strategies that political parties may be entertaining to skew the election results in their favour.
Nevertheless, terror attacks in the final days ahead of the election would be expected to favour the party of Law and Order which in this election means the Conservatives, to what degree is impossible to ascertain, probably no more than 5 seats. Still given that some pollsters such as YouGov are stating that the Tories could even lose seats at the election then an extra 5 or so seats could make all the difference between the Conservatives winning or losing the election to a Labour / SNP Nightmare alliance.
Also see my latest video in this series of what the Betting Markets are forecasting for the outcome of the UK general election.
Terror Attacks Are Red Herrings!
My extensive earlier analysis explains why terror attacks are RED HERRINGS as the real issue is the Age of Reason vs Religion in the Illusion of Democracy and Freedom series, of why terror events are happening and what needs to be done to diminish the risks of both terrorism and the real costs to society of the dilution of rational thought and reasoned actions such as in the following the January 2015 Charlie Hebdo attack -
13th Jan 2015 - Islamic World Transition From the 'Age of Religion' to the 'Age of Reason'
Age of Reason World Map 2015
The following map illustrates the current state of the evolution of humanity from the 'Age of Religion' to the 'Age of Reason' as peoples and nations attempt to literally pull themselves out of the iron grip of ancient superstitions towards ENLIGHTENMENT where humanity really does start to understand the true nature of the universe, utilisation of which triggers exponential leaps in development as we have seen in China that has done in 30 years what took the West 300 years to achieve.
The key point that stands out from the world map is that the most religious countries also tend to be the poorest. However, the automatic western response of sending aid to poor countries just does not work for the fundamental reason that many aspects of civil society are skewed towards of veneration a deity such as in religious schools that continuously draws resources away from education based on the 'Age of Reason'.
Where the Islamic world is concerned is primed for a reformation that the West should encourage as a matter of the utmost priority as the means of bringing about Armageddon will only become easier to obtain with each passing year which is why given the current trends I don't see the middle east region surviving beyond 2030, unless the Age of Reason starts to prevail in Islamic nations whilst also continuing its trend in all nations.
So instead of the mainstream media's obsession with the 'class of civilisations' nonsense or fearing Islamification instead it is Islam that fears the West for what it represents - ENLIGHTENMENT, and it is this that is resulting in schools being blown up across Afghanistan and Pakistan, hundreds of school girls being kidnapped in Nigeria. Islam, Muslims, even Christians, Jews and Hindus FEAR the truth of what Western Secular Education reveals. Whilst western civilisation has over 400 years painfully detached itself from the Christian death cult, other death cults across the middle east still crave the end of the world so that they may ascend into paradise for eternity for the Islamic world is literally living on borrowed time as Islamic nations are not just sinking but imploding into chaos and anarchy promoting huge waves of migration to Europe and North America.
The Islamic Reformation for most of the worlds muslims could happen far more quickly than the West's 400+ year long march towards secularism that firmly put the Christian death cult in its box. An Islamic Reformation within the next 30 years would result in a world where today's slogans of Islamification and Fundamentalism just would no longer be relevant, for Islam or Judaism or the many other 'religions' would not have to go through the painful process of discovery from Galileo to Darwin to Einstein to Planck to Watson and Crick, for the knowledge already exists! It would be totally unnecessary for Islam to be blind as the first century of the Christian Reformation was that was forced to open its eyes over several centuries.
The bottom line is that what we are witnessing with Islamic fundamentalism are violent reactions to the beginnings of the Islamic Reformation where despite being unimaginable today, the Islamic world could within a few short decades come to mirror western societies in terms of economy, secularism, freedom and democracy. The best thing that the West can do is to FOSTER the Islamic Reformation through SECULAR EDUCATION INITIATIVES. The West's universities are breeding grounds for enlightenment and western governments should stop supporting dictatorships such as that in Egypt or those states that ferment religious ideologies such as Israel and Saudi Arabia which through their actions are acting as a Resistor to the Islamic Reformation.
And earlier still articles -
- 14 Oct 2013 - The Illusion of Freedom - Democracy, Religion, Science and Propaganda
- 03 Jun 2013 - UK Housing Bull Market Opportunities In Britain's Multiculturalism Immigration Crisis
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By Nadeem Walayat
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Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.
Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk
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