Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Stock Markets and the History Chart of the End of the World (With Presidential Cycles) - 28th Aug 20
2.Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook... AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels and Valuations Q3 2020 - 31st Aug 20
3.The Inflation Mega-trend is Going Hyper! - 11th Sep 20
4.Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
5.What's Driving Gold, Silver and What's Next? - 3rd Sep 20
6.QE4EVER! - 9th Sep 20
7.Gold Price Trend Forecast Analysis - Part1 - 7th Sep 20
8.The Fed May “Cause” The Next Stock Market Crash - 3rd Sep 20
9.Bitcoin Price Crash - You Will be Suprised What Happens Next - 7th Sep 20
10.NVIDIA Stock Price Soars on RTX 3000 Cornering the GPU Market for next 2 years! - 3rd Sep 20
Last 7 days
MUST WATCH Before You Waste Money on Buying A New PC Computer System - 27th Nov 20
Gold: Insurance for Prudent Investors, Precious Metals Reduce Risk & Preserve Wealth - 27th Nov 20
How To Spot The End Of An Excess Market Trend Phase - 27th Nov 20
Snow Falling Effect Christmas Lights Outdoor Projector Amazon Review - 27th Nov 20
4 Reasons Why You Shouldn't Put off Your Roof Repairs - 27th Nov 20
Further Clues Reveal Gold’s Weakness - 26th Nov 20
Fun Things to Do this Christmas - 26th Nov 20
Industries that Require Secure Messaging Apps - 26th Nov 20
Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis - 25th Nov 20
Amazon Black Friday Dell 32 Inch S3220DGF VA Curved Screen Gaming Monitor Bargain Deal! - 25th Nov 20
Biden the Silver Bull - 25th Nov 20
Inflation Warning to the Fed: Be Careful What You Wish For - 25th Nov 20
Financial Stocks Sector ETF Shows Unique Island Setup – What Next? - 25th Nov 20
Herd Immunity or Herd Insolvency: Which Will Affect Gold More? - 25th Nov 20
Stock Market SEASONAL TREND and ELECTION CYCLE - 24th Nov 20
Amazon Black Friday - Karcher K7 FC Pressure Washer Assembly and 1st Use - Is it Any Good? - 24th Nov 20
I Dislike Shallow People And Shallow Market Pullbacks - 24th Nov 20
Small Traders vs. Large Traders vs. Commercials: Who Is Right Most Often? - 24th Nov 20
10 Reasons You Should Trade With a Regulated Broker In UK - 24th Nov 20
Stock Market Elliott Wave Analysis - 23rd Nov 20
Evolution of the Fed - 23rd Nov 20
Gold and Silver Now and Then - A Comparison - 23rd Nov 20
Nasdaq NQ Has Stalled Above a 1.382 Fibonacci Expansion Range Three Times - 23rd Nov 20
Learn How To Trade Forex Successfully - 23rd Nov 20
Market 2020 vs 2016 and 2012 - 22nd Nov 20
Gold & Silver - Adapting Dynamic Learning Shows Possible Upside Price Rally - 22nd Nov 20
Stock Market Short-term Correction - 22nd Nov 20
Stock Market SPY/SPX Island Setups Warn Of A Potential Reversal In This Uptrend - 21st Nov 20
Why Budgies Make Great Pets for Kids - 21st Nov 20
How To Find The Best Dry Dog Food For Your Furry Best Friend?  - 21st Nov 20
The Key to a Successful LGBT Relationship is Matching by Preferences - 21st Nov 20
Stock Market Dow Long-term Trend Analysis - 20th Nov 20
Margin: How Stock Market Investors Are "Reaching for the Stars" - 20th Nov 20
World’s Largest Free-Trade Pact Inspiration for Global Economic Recovery - 20th Nov 20
Dating Sites Break all the Stereotypes About Distance - 20th Nov 20
THE STOCK MARKET BIG PICTURE - Video - 19th Nov 20
Reasons why Bitcoin is Treading at it's Highest Level Since 2017 and a Warning - 19th Nov 20
Media Celebrates after Trump’s Pro-Gold Fed Nominee Gets Blocked - 19th Nov 20
DJIA Short-term Stock Market Technical Trend Analysis - 19th Nov 20
Demoncracy Ushers in the Flu World Order How to Survive and Profit From What Is Coming - 19th Nov 20
US Bond Market: "When Investors Should Worry" - 18th Nov 20
Gold Remains the Best Pandemic Insurance - 18th Nov 20
GPU Fan Not Spinning FIX - How to Easily Extend the Life of Your Gaming PC System - 18th Nov 20
Dow Jones E-Mini Futures Tag 30k Twice – Setting Up Stock Market Double Top - 18th Nov 20
Edge Computing Is Leading the Next Great Tech Revolution - 18th Nov 20
This Chart Signals When Gold Stocks Will Explode - 17th Nov 20
Gold Price Momentous ally From 2000 Compared To SPY Stock Market and Nasdaq - 17th Nov 20
Creating Marketing Campaigns Using the Freedom of Information Act - 17th Nov 20
ILLEGITIMATE PRESIDENT - 17th Nov 20
Stock Market Uptrend in Process - 17th Nov 20
How My Friend Made $128,000 Investing in Stocks Without Knowing It - 16th Nov 20
Free-spending Biden and/or continued Fed stimulus will hike Gold prices - 16th Nov 20
Top Cheap Budgie Toys - Every Budgie Owner Should Have These Safe Bird Toys! - 16th Nov 20
Line Up For Your Jab to get your Covaids Freedom Pass and a 5% Work From Home Tax - 16th Nov 20
You May Have Overlooked These “Sleeper” Precious Metals - 16th Nov 20
Demystifying interesting facts about online Casinos - 16th Nov 20
What's Ahead for the Gold Market? - 15th Nov 20
Gold’s Momentous Rally From 2000 Compared To Stock Market SPY & QQQ - 15th Nov 20
Overclockers UK Quality of Custom Gaming System Build - OEM Windows Sticker? - 15th Nov 20
UK GCSE Exams 2021 CANCELLED! Grades Based on Mock Exams and Teacher Assessments - 15th Nov 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Get Rich Investing in Stocks by Riding the Electron Wave

Will the Death of Diesel Cars Ruin Platinum?

Commodities / Platinum Aug 12, 2017 - 03:22 PM GMT

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Commodities

The gloomy future of the diesel vehicles is commonly known. However, what does it really mean? And how could the demise of diesel technology impact the precious metals market?

The 1970s oil crisis and accelerating inflation made diesel-powered cars popular, especially in Europe where gasoline prices were always higher than in the U.S. The new technology was considered as more efficient and less polluting, as diesel cars produce less carbon dioxide than gasoline cars (thanks to better mileage). Hence, policy makers started to support diesel and the market share of diesel cars went from 14 percent in 1990 to 50 percent in 2016, as the chart below shows.


Chart 1: Market share of diesel in new passenger cars in Western Europe from 1990 to 2016 (as %).

However, there was a catch. Diesel cars produce more nitrogen oxides, the main cause of smog. Although it was not a secret, it has recently turned out that diesel engines pollute much more than anyone thought. The new study published by Nature, which followed the Volkswagen scandal, showed that diesel vehicles produce 50 percent more nitrogen oxide emissions than during laboratory certification testing. These excess emissions are associated with about 38,000 premature deaths globally associated with heart attacks, lung cancer, and strokes, among other things. However, the overall number of people who died prematurely due to Europe’s high share of diesel is in the hundreds of thousands.

Hence, given the rising ecological and health awareness, accompanied by the more stringent regulatory stance, diesel cars are likely to fall into oblivion. Indeed, as one can see in the chart above, the market share of these vehicles in Western Europe declined from 55.7 percent in 2011 to 49.5 percent in 2016. We expect further decreases in the years ahead, as more and more producers and authorities forsake this technology. For example, Volvo declared in May that it would not develop any more new-generation diesel engines due to rising compliance costs, while the current generation would be produced until about 2023. Meanwhile, the mayors of Paris, Madrid, Athens and Mexico City have recently announced plans to take diesel vehicles off their roads by 2025. Actually, France went even further, as Macron’s government revealed its will to end sales of gasoline and diesel vehicles by 2040. And the Indian government also announced that every car in the country will be electric by 2030.

Actually, the demise of diesel vehicles may approach much earlier. According to a study by AlixPartners, diesels will have just 9 percent of the European market by 2030 due to a shift into electric cars. Last year, 14.6 million passenger cars were registered in Europe, half of that were diesel cars. In 2017, the Europe’s auto market is expected to start to flatten – the growth is projected at about 3 percent, much slower than in recent years. Fixing that growth rate, the European sales would decline to just about 2 million passenger cars, or by about 70 percent, by 2030.

The implications for the precious metals are very serious. First, platinum, which is mainly used as diesel exhaust emissions control catalyst, is likely to continue its underperformance relative to other precious metals. Given that the automotive sector accounts for about 40 percent of the overall demand for platinum, the need for the metal will decline by about 20 percent until then (we assumed that the absolute car sales would grow 33 percent and we did not include the truck segment, which accounts for about 40 percent of automotive demand, as diesel should maintain its position in that segment for much longer).

Hence, investors should not count on platinum prices rebounding and jumping above the price of gold again. Actually, the price of platinum may reach parity with palladium soon, which is mainly used in gasoline vehicles, or even decline below the price of its cousin.

Some analysts argue that with these prices close and with platinum being the more effective catalyst we might see a return of demand for platinum from the automotive industry. It’s possible, but not very likely – there may be a halt to any research to replace platinum with palladium as the predominant diesel exhaust emissions control catalyst at best. The truth is that automakers are frantically looking for non-precious platinum and palladium substitutes to cut costs.

So although it might be true that platinum is cheap, there are good fundamental reasons why it is cheap. There is structural change ongoing in the automotive sector, which is likely to cause diesel cars losing market share. It may be not evident at this stage, but investors are always forward-looking. Unless platinum-group metals find new applications, their long-term investment attractiveness will decline.

Thank you.

If you enjoyed the above analysis and would you like to know more about the gold ETFs and their impact on gold price, we invite you to read the April Market Overview report. If you're interested in the detailed price analysis and price projections with targets, we invite you to sign up for our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts . If you're not ready to subscribe at this time, we invite you to sign up for our gold newsletter and stay up-to-date with our latest free articles. It's free and you can unsubscribe anytime.

Arkadiusz Sieron
Sunshine Profits‘ Market Overview Editor

Disclaimer

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Arkadiusz Sieron Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules