Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Stock Markets and the History Chart of the End of the World (With Presidential Cycles) - 28th Aug 20
2.Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook... AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels and Valuations Q3 2020 - 31st Aug 20
3.The Inflation Mega-trend is Going Hyper! - 11th Sep 20
4.Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
5.What's Driving Gold, Silver and What's Next? - 3rd Sep 20
6.QE4EVER! - 9th Sep 20
7.Gold Price Trend Forecast Analysis - Part1 - 7th Sep 20
8.The Fed May “Cause” The Next Stock Market Crash - 3rd Sep 20
9.Bitcoin Price Crash - You Will be Suprised What Happens Next - 7th Sep 20
10.NVIDIA Stock Price Soars on RTX 3000 Cornering the GPU Market for next 2 years! - 3rd Sep 20
Last 7 days
Online Elliott Wave Markets Trading Course Worth $129 for FREE! - 22nd Sep 20
Gold Price Overboughtness Risk - 22nd Sep 20
Central Banking Cartel Promises ZIRP Until at Least 2023 - 22nd Sep 20
Stock Market Correction Approaching Initial Objective - 22nd Sep 20
Silver Bulls Will Be Handsomely Rewarded - 21st Sep 20
Fed Will Not Hike Rates For Years. Gold Should Like It - 21st Sep 20
US Financial Market Forecasts and Elliott Wave Analysis Resources - 21st Sep 20
How to Avoid Currency Exchange Risk during COVID - 21st Sep 20
Crude Oil – A Slight Move Higher Has Not Reversed The Bearish Trend - 20th Sep 20
Do This Instead Of Trying To Find The “Next Amazon” - 20th Sep 20
5 Significant Benefits of the MT4 Trading Platform for Forex Traders - 20th Sep 20
A Warning of Economic Collapse - 20th Sep 20
The Connection Between Stocks and the Economy is not What Most Investors Think - 19th Sep 20
A Virus So Deadly, The Government Has to Test You to See If You Have It - 19th Sep 20
Will Lagarde and Mnuchin Push Gold Higher? - 19th Sep 20
RTX 3080 Mania, Ebay Scalpers Crazy Prices £62,000 Trollers Insane Bids for a £649 GPU! - 19th Sep 20
A Greater Economic Depression For The 21st Century - 19th Sep 20
The United Floor in Stocks - 19th Sep 20
Mobile Gaming Market Trends And The Expected Future Developments - 19th Sep 20
The S&P 500 appears ready to correct, and that is a good thing - 18th Sep 20
It’s Go Time for Gold Price! Next Stop $2,250 - 18th Sep 20
Forget AMD RDNA2 and Buy Nvidia RTX 3080 FE GPU's NOW Before Price - 18th Sep 20
Best Back to School / University Black Face Masks Quick and Easy from Amazon - 18th Sep 20
3 Types of Loans to Buy an Existing Business - 18th Sep 20
How to tell Budgie Gender, Male or Female Sex for Young and Mature Parakeets - 18th Sep 20
Fasten Your Seatbelts Stock Market Make Or Break – Big Trends Ahead - 17th Sep 20
Peak Financialism And Post-Capitalist Economics - 17th Sep 20
Challenges of Working from Home - 17th Sep 20
Sheffield Heading for Coronavirus Lockdown as Covid Deaths Pass 432 - 17th Sep 20
What Does this Valuable Gold Miners Indicator Say Now? - 16th Sep 20
President Trump and Crimes Against Humanity - 16th Sep 20
Slow Economic Recovery from CoronaVirus Unlikely to Impede Strong Demand for Metals - 16th Sep 20
Why the Knives Are Out for Trump’s Fed Critic Judy Shelton - 16th Sep 20
Operation Moonshot: Get Ready for Millions of New COVAIDS Positives in the UK! - 16th Sep 20
Stock Market Approaching Correction Objective - 15th Sep 20
Look at This Big Reminder of Dot.com Stock Market Mania - 15th Sep 20
Three Key Principles for Successful Disruption Investors - 15th Sep 20
Billionaire Hedge Fund Manager Warns of 10% Inflation - 15th Sep 20
Gold Price Reaches $2,000 Amid Dollar Depreciation - 15th Sep 20
GLD, IAU Big Gold ETF Buying MIA - 14th Sep 20
Why Bill Gates Is Betting Millions on Synthetic Biology - 14th Sep 20
Stock Market SPY Expectations For The Rest Of September - 14th Sep 20
Gold Price Gann Angle Update - 14th Sep 20
Stock Market Recovery from the Sharp Correction Goes On - 14th Sep 20
Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
The Silver Big Prize - 13th Sep 20
U.S. Shares Plunged. Is Gold Next? - 13th Sep 20
Why Are 7,500 Oil Barrels Floating on this London Lake? - 13th Sep 20
Sheffield 432 Covid-19 Deaths, Last City Centre Shop Before Next Lockdown - 13th Sep 20
Biden or Trump Will Keep The Money Spigots Open - 13th Sep 20
Gold And Silver Up, Down, Sideways, Up - 13th Sep 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Get Rich Investing in Stocks by Riding the Electron Wave

Gold Targetting ABC Trend to $900

Commodities / Gold & Silver Sep 02, 2008 - 03:19 AM GMT

By: Joe_Nicholson

Commodities “In Elliott wave terms, last week's rally could very well have been a 4 of C consolidation before the final lows. Both gold and silver failed to take out a key support/resistance level just above Friday's closing levels. Neither managed to have their rallies confirmed by MACD, which actually widened negatively in both cases. And, whereas gold is poised for a bearish crossover over the 50-week sma over the 5-, silver has already done it. Both gold and silver remain well below their 5-week moving averages. If this is the beginning of a new leg to the bull market, there's still lots of work to do before we have anything approaching confirmation. ~ Precious Points: One More Low to Go? August 23, 2008


Though gold closed higher for the week, the doji weekly candlestick continues to indicate a market that is decidedly undecided about its next direction. Though the start of September and traditionally positive seasonality might increase trading volume and help resolve this uncertainty, the weekly chart of gold, shown below, does not contain much encouragement for near term bulls.

About the best that can be said is that gold has put in a series of higher highs and lows since hitting a bottom three weeks ago, but resistance at the 5-week simple moving average, the bearish crossover of the 50-week ma over the 5, and the failure of MACD to confirm this move higher, all weigh heavily.

Given the modest rise over the last two weeks, it's not too surprising to find the daily chart in somewhat better condition. Seen below, gold has skittered along support at the 5-day sma, and has seen a bullish crossover in MACD. The 5- and 50-day moving averages have converged and not yet crossed, suggesting a compelling target for the current move. Unless a clearly impulsive wave pattern unfolds, one that will likely take gold to $900 and above, the entire advance from the low could easily be seen as a simple three-wave correction.

The situation in silver is similar, but even less optimistic. First support in silver will be just above Friday's low. Failing that, support above the August 26 low, shown in red on the chart below, suggests silver may be forming a triangle B wave, putting the target for its measured move in an a,b,c correction at about $15. As with gold, the count could be modified if the wave pattern has a more impulsive look at the target, but this should be confirmed by price action before assumed.

With precious metals in such a funk, attention has turned lately to base metals and what their price action may be forecasting about the global economy and the future of commodities in general. Probably the most telling of the base metals in this regard is copper, and its chart offers an interesting possibility. Seen below, copper appears to have just completed the 4 th wave of an ending diagonal, suggesting new highs in the near future. This scenario fits nicely with an uptick in post-Olympics demand from China and a resilient global economy in general.

Trading below the mid-August low invalidates the ending diagonal and strongly implicates a top in copper is already in place. But continued upside in metals is supported by the weekly chart in aluminum which, after putting in a clear 5-waves up, is quickly approaching a perfect Fibonacci retracement level.

Thinking fundamentally, commodities seem to be in transition out of the first half of their bull market, where supply is woefully inadequate to meet an unquenchable demand, to a second half where new supply is finally coming into production and onto the market raising stockpiles in an environment where demand no longer seems indomitable and unquestionable. This is not to say new highs are unattainable, as a clear path to new highs is clear and present in the charts of copper and aluminum. But, even if the ED in copper remains valid and a rally to new highs materializes, such a move would complete a 5-wave move from 1999 and signal a major top. And as history suggests, tops in copper tend to correspond with a slowing global economy and therefore tops in other major markets.

But, on the whole, we shouldn't be surprised to see gold near $900 and silver near $15 in the short term, though this won't necessarily mean a bottom is in place. Instead, these target areas are likely to be the next major inflection points that could presage new lows or a rally towards new highs.

In either case, now, for limited time only, is your chance to join this community of traders. Beginning Saturday August 30 until September 8, or until available spaces are filled, TTC will be accepting new members.

Because we take the quality of our service very seriously, we strictly limit membership and work to develop members' trading skills. Having noticed an improvement in our current membership, most of which are professional, institutional traders, we will accept a limited number of new retail members for one week only. TTC does not issue trade signals because we teach you how to trade. We don't spoon feed you because we teach you how to take care of yourself. So, whether you're a novice trader who wants to get better, or a more experienced pro that's wants to share what they've learned and go to an even higher level in multiple markets and timeframes, TTC is the place for you.

http://safehaven.com/images/dominick/11108_d.jpgFinally, I should say that if you join TTC, be ready to stay. It usually takes a month or so for traders to comfortably incorporate our techniques into their trading, but once they do, members don't often leave. In fact, it was this dedication and sense of community that inspired us to work with the Northwest Territorial Mint to produce a custom commemorative "Unbiased Trader" precious metal medallion - which will be available for purchase soon. Professionally designed and proof struck in association with the Northwest Territorial Mint , these gorgeous medallions will be available in 5 oz .999 fine silver or 1 oz pure gold varieties. Last year's supply sold out quickly, so join now to reserve your chance to purchase your own "Unbiased Trader" TTC medallion.

by Joe Nicholson (oroborean)

www.tradingthecharts.com

This update is provided as general information and is not an investment recommendation. TTC accepts no liability whatsoever for any losses resulting from action taken based on the contents of its charts,, commentaries, or price data. Securities and commodities markets involve inherent risk and not all positions are suitable for each individual.  Check with your licensed financial advisor or broker prior to taking any action.

Joe Nicholson Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules