Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
Peloton 35% CRASH a Lesson of What Happens When One Over Pays for a Loss Making Growth Stock - 1st Dec 21
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: I Fear For Retirees For The Next 20 Years - 1st Dec 21 t
Will the Anointed Finanical Experts Get It Wrong Again? - 1st Dec 21
Main Differences Between the UK and Canadian Gaming Markets - 1st Dec 21
Bitcoin Price TRIGGER for Accumulating Into Alt Coins for 2022 Price Explosion - 30th Nov 21
Omicron Covid Wave 4 Impact on Financial Markets - 30th Nov 21
Can You Hear It? That’s the Crowd Booing Gold’s Downturn - 30th Nov 21
Economic and Market Impacts of Omicron Strain Covid 4th Wave - 30th Nov 21
Stock Market Historical Trends Suggest A Strengthening Bullish Trend In December - 30th Nov 21
Crypto Market Analysis: What Trading Will Look Like in 2022 for Novice and Veteran Traders? - 30th Nov 21
Best Stocks for Investing to Profit form the Metaverse and Get Rich - 29th Nov 21
Should You Invest In Real Estate In 2021? - 29th Nov 21
Silver Long-term Trend Analysis - 28th Nov 21
Silver Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 28th Nov 21
Crude Oil Didn’t Like Thanksgiving Turkey This Year - 28th Nov 21
Sheffield First Snow Winter 2021 - Snowballs and Snowmen Fun - 28th Nov 21
Stock Market Investing LESSON - Buying Value - 27th Nov 21
Corsair MP600 NVME M.2 SSD 66% Performance Loss After 6 Months of Use - Benchmark Tests - 27th Nov 21
Stock Maket Trading Lesson - How to REALLY Trade Markets - 26th Nov 21
SILVER Price Trend Analysis - 26th Nov 21
Federal Reserve Asks Americans to Eat Soy “Meat” for Thanksgiving - 26th Nov 21
Is the S&P 500 Topping or Just Consolidating? - 26th Nov 21
Is a Bigger Drop in Gold Price Just Around the Corner? - 26th Nov 21
Financial Stocks ETF Sector XLF Pullback Sets Up A New $43.60 Upside Target - 26th Nov 21
A Couple of Things to Think About Before Buying Shares - 25th Nov 21
UK Best Fixed Rate Tariff Deal is to NOT FIX Gas and Electric Energy Tariffs During Winter 2021-22 - 25th Nov 21
Stock Market Begins it's Year End Seasonal Santa Rally - 24th Nov 21
How Silver Can Conquer $50+ in 2022 - 24th Nov 21
Stock Market Betting on Hawkish Fed - 24th Nov 21
Stock Market Elliott Wave Trend Forecast - 24th Nov 21
Your once-a-year All-Access Financial Markets Analysis Pass - 24th Nov 21
Did Zillow’s $300 million flop prove me wrong? - 24th Nov 21
Now Malaysian Drivers Renew Their Kurnia Car Insurance Online With Fincrew.my - 24th Nov 21
Gold / Silver Ratio - 23rd Nov 21
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Can We Get To 5500SPX In 2022? But 4440SPX Comes First - 23rd Nov 21
A Month-to-month breakdown of how Much Money Individuals are Spending on Stocks - 23rd Nov 21
S&P 500: Rallying Tech Stocks vs. Plummeting Oil Stocks - 23rd Nov 21
Like the Latest Bond Flick, the US Dollar Has No Time to Die - 23rd Nov 21
Why BITCOIN NEW ALL TIME HIGH Changes EVERYTHING! - 22nd Nov 21
Cannabis ETF MJ Basing & Volatility Patterns - 22nd Nov 21
The Most Important Lesson Learned from this COVID Pandemic - 22nd Nov 21
Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis - 22nd Nov 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Gold GDX ETF From One Inflection Point To Another

Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2017 Dec 29, 2017 - 12:36 PM GMT

By: Avi_Gilburt

Commodities

First published on Sunday Dec 24 for members of ElliottWaveTrader.net: Ever since we broke down below the upper support region back in early September, and invalidated an immediate break-out set up, we have been looking for the GDX to test the 21 region. It was a point of support which could complete the larger degree wave ii, and begin the long-awaited start to a major 3rd wave rally. And, if it broke, it opened the door to the 17-19 region for a larger degree wave ii bottom.


In early December, we identified the more specific 20.89-21.26 support region, which, if held, could begin that major 3rd wave. But, since it would mean that this 2nd wave would have completed in an unorthodox manner, I noted that I would need to see confirmation that the market has truly bottomed.

As we now know with the benefit of hindsight, the GDX bottomed at 21.27 (within a penny of our support), and began a rally which came within pennies of our first resistance region of 22.30 before it pulled back. Last weekend, I noted that the market was likely set up to continue higher, since the pullback looked corrective off the 22.30 region. During this past week, I presented you with the set up for the market to rally to an ideal target of 22.85, and, as the close of the week, the market struck a high so far of 22.92.

Thus far, the market has been rather predictable, at least within pennies of our targets. But, now we are faced with another test being presented to this market. The question before us, which will likely be decided in the coming week or two, is if the market is going to continue much higher and begin to confirm that the larger degree 3rd wave has begun, or if we will roll over to extend this 2nd wave pullback into early 2018. And, as you can see from the attached 8-minute GDX chart, we now reside within that region of resistance where the market will have to make its decision.

From a targeting standpoint, I want to remind you that the larger degree wave iii should strike a minimal target of 50 in the GDX once we confirm that it has begun. But, remember that the metals complex usually exceeds those standard expectations, as the 50 region is the 1.618 extension of waves i and ii, if wave ii is already completed. In fact, I would much rather target the 58-68 region for just wave iii at this time, assuming wave ii has completed.

But, as noted last weekend, I will need to see it break through the 23.30 region for me to begin to become a believer that the more immediately bullish yellow wave count on the daily chart is the operative count to follow into early 2018. Until such time, I remain quite cautious as we now reside at a resistance point which can turn us down again into early 2018 to extend wave ii.

As you can see, silver also resides within the resistance region we highlighted earlier this week in my mid-week metals update. It will need to see a strong break out through this resistance to open the door to its potential bottoming confirmation. And, lastly, I have attached an 8-minute chart of GLD to outline what I would need to see to be convinced that we have 5 waves off its recent lows. Should that occur, you can see where I have GLD projected in the coming year on its daily chart.

In fact, once the GLD has confirmed it is in the heart of its 3rd wave, it will not take long until it returns to its prior all-time highs. But, again, I must stress how important it is for us to confirm the bottom has been struck before we get too excited about the impending 3rdwave rally. As you can see, there is plenty of room on the upside to garner significant profits during a 3rd wave, but it is of utmost importance to allow the market to confirm its intention before becoming too aggressive on the long side.

Lastly, as you can see from the attached ABX chart, we also reside within that resistance region I have been highlighting for quite some time. So, I cannot say that the ABX is providing us insight beyond that which we have gleaned from the rest of the market.

At this point, I will leave you best wishes for a wonderfully enjoyable holiday season, as we await the next directional cue from the market regarding its intentions for early 2018. You now have the relevant guidelines as to the market’s potential paths, and should anything change, I will certainly send out an update to all our members. Best wishes for a healthy, happy, and profitable 2018.

See charts illustrating the wave counts on the Silver, GDX, GLD & ABX.

Avi Gilburt is a widely followed Elliott Wave technical analyst and author of ElliottWaveTrader.net (www.elliottwavetrader.net), a live Trading Room featuring his intraday market analysis (including emini S&P 500, metals, oil, USD & VXX), interactive member-analyst forum, and detailed library of Elliott Wave education.

© 2017 Copyright Avi Gilburt - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in