Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
Quantum AI Stocks Investing Priority - 26th Jan 22
Is Everyone Going To Be Right About This Stocks Bear Market?- 26th Jan 22
Stock Market Glass Half Empty or Half Full? - 26th Jan 22
Stock Market Quoted As Saying 'The Reports Of My Demise Are Greatly Exaggerated' - 26th Jan 22
The Synthetic Dividend Option To Generate Profits - 26th Jan 22
The Beginner's Guide to Credit Repair - 26th Jan 22
AI Tech Stocks State Going into the CRASH and Capitalising on the Metaverse - 25th Jan 22
Stock Market Relief Rally, Maybe? - 25th Jan 22
Why Gold’s Latest Rally Is Nothing to Get Excited About - 25th Jan 22
Gold Slides and Rebounds in 2022 - 25th Jan 22
Gold; a stellar picture - 25th Jan 22
CATHY WOOD ARK GARBAGE ARK Funds Heading for 90% STOCK CRASH! - 22nd Jan 22
Gold Is the Belle of the Ball. Will Its Dance Turn Bearish? - 22nd Jan 22
Best Neighborhoods to Buy Real Estate in San Diego - 22nd Jan 22
Stock Market January PANIC AI Tech Stocks Buying Opp - Trend Forecast 2022 - 21st Jan 21
How to Get Rich in the MetaVerse - 20th Jan 21
Should you Buy Payment Disruptor Stocks in 2022? - 20th Jan 21
2022 the Year of Smart devices, Electric Vehicles, and AI Startups - 20th Jan 21
Oil Markets More Animated by Geopolitics, Supply, and Demand - 20th Jan 21
WARNING - AI STOCK MARKET CRASH / BEAR SWITCH TRIGGERED! - 19th Jan 22
Fake It Till You Make It: Will Silver’s Motto Work on Gold? - 19th Jan 22
Crude Oil Smashing Stocks - 19th Jan 22
US Stagflation: The Global Risk of 2022 - 19th Jan 22
Stock Market Trend Forecast Early 2022 - Tech Growth Value Stocks Rotation - 18th Jan 22
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Are We Setting Up For A 'Mini-Crash'? - 18th Jan 22
Mobile Sports Betting is on a rise: Here’s why - 18th Jan 22
Exponential AI Stocks Mega-trend - 17th Jan 22
THE NEXT BITCOIN - 17th Jan 22
Gold Price Predictions for 2022 - 17th Jan 22
How Do Debt Relief Services Work To Reduce The Amount You Owe? - 17th Jan 22
RIVIAN IPO Illustrates We are in the Mother of all Stock Market Bubbles - 16th Jan 22
All Market Eyes on Copper - 16th Jan 22
The US Dollar Had a Slip-Up, but Gold Turned a Blind Eye to It - 16th Jan 22
A Stock Market Top for the Ages - 16th Jan 22
FREETRADE - Stock Investing Platform, the Good, Bad and Ugly Review, Free Shares, Cancelled Orders - 15th Jan 22
WD 14tb My Book External Drive Unboxing, Testing and Benchmark Performance Amazon Buy Review - 15th Jan 22
Toyland Ferris Wheel Birthday Fun at Gulliver's Rother Valley UK Theme Park 2022 - 15th Jan 22
What You Should Know About a TailoredPay High Risk Merchant Account - 15th Jan 22

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Russian Strategic Bombers in Washington's Backyard

Politics / New Cold War Sep 10, 2008 - 04:56 PM GMT

By: STRATFOR

Politics Summary
Two Russian Tu-160 “Blackjack” strategic bombers reportedly landed in Venezuela on Sept. 10. If this is a Russian military foray into the Caribbean, it will be the first since the Cold War. The move also give Venezuela an opportunity to annoy the United States by letting Washington's old Cold War rival operate from its territory, in the United States' backyard.


Analysis

Two Russian Tu-160 “Blackjack” strategic bombers reportedly landed in Venezuela on Sept. 10, according to the Russian Defense Ministry. Just two days before, the Russian navy confirmed claims by Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez that the two countries would conduct joint naval exercises in Venezuelan waters in November. That, in conjunction with rumors about similar flights to Cuba , is sufficient to spark concern over a potential renewed interest on the Kremlin's part in tinkering in the Caribbean.

Though largely a legacy platform from the Cold War, the Tu-160 is Russia's newest and longest-range strategic bomber. With a maximum unrefuelled range of more than 6,600 nautical miles, it has the legs to reach Venezuela — with plenty of distance to spare. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the bomber has been upgraded, and several new airframes are reportedly under production. They are employed primarily as long-range cruise missile carriers, and are not generally used in maritime interdiction. The Tu-160 is the quintessential reminder of the unique military position Moscow retains through its inheritance of late-Soviet technology and weapons.

Related Special Topic Page

While Russia has long maintained this military capability, this could be its first military foray into the Caribbean since the Cold War. And that is a line the Kremlin does not cross lightly or unconsciously.

It appears that, for most of the flight, the Blackjacks were escorted by NATO and U.S. warplanes — a reminder that they were quickly detected and intercepted and that they likely would have been destroyed quickly in a shooting war. But Washington is not in a shooting war with Russia; it will have little option but to tail the jets as they conduct exercises over international waters over the next few days before they are scheduled to return to Moscow.

For Venezuela, this is an opportunity to needle the United States by lending its territorial proximity to Russia. Caracas seeks to put a great deal of distance between itself and Washington, with which Chavez has long attempted to compete for regional leadership and influence. Venezuela also seeks to make Russia into its very own great power ally; but without a return to Cold War rivalries, Venezuela would have nothing to offer Moscow.

For Russia's part, the precedent has now been set, and it only remains to be seen how regular a presence the Kremlin will attempt to sustain in this regard. But the larger significance is that Russia is reminding the United States of a time when Cuba was a Soviet ally, when Nicaragua was in play and when Grenada was on the verge of becoming a major Soviet air base, forcing the United States to invade. Washington generally enjoys a great deal of geopolitical insulation from the troubles of the world on the far side of the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. This is the heart of the Monroe Doctrine and affords the United States an enviable geopolitical position. But it also makes the Americans extremely sensitive to this very sort of jab by the Russians.

After suffering NATO in its own backyard for years, Russia is now on the verge of playing hardball with the United States in its front yard. Events thus far may be more of a signal to Washington to back off of Russia's periphery — in exchange, Moscow may leave the United States' sphere of interest alone. But given Washington's distraction in Iraq and Afghanistan, Russia may never have a better chance to attempt to consolidate a foothold in the Caribbean. It may not necessarily be possible, and it may not necessarily succeed in the long run. But neither precludes Moscow from making the attempt — and in so doing, potentially significantly altering the global geopolitical landscape.

By George Friedman

This analysis was just a fraction of what our Members enjoy, Click Here to start your Free Membership Trial Today! If a friend forwarded this email to you, click here to join our mailing list for FREE intelligence and other special offers. Please feel free to distribute this Intelligence Report to friends or repost to your Web site linking to www.stratfor.com .

© Copyright 2008 Stratfor. All rights reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis.

STRATFOR Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in