Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. 2019 From A Fourth Turning Perspective - James_Quinn
2.Beware the Young Stocks Bear Market! - Zeal_LLC
3.Safe Havens are Surging. What this Means for Stocks 2019 - Troy_Bombardia
4.Most Popular Financial Markets Analysis of 2018 - Trump and BrExit Chaos Dominate - Nadeem_Walayat
5.January 2019 Financial Markets Analysis and Forecasts - Nadeem_Walayat
6.Silver Price Trend Analysis 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Why 90% of Traders Lose - Nadeem_Walayat
8.What to do With Your Money in a Stocks Bear Market - Stephen_McBride
9.Stock Market What to Expect in the First 3~5 Months of 2019 - Chris_Vermeulen
10.China, Global Economy has Tipped over: The Surging Dollar and the Rallying Yen - FXCOT
Last 7 days
Forex Trading Management: The Importance of Being Prepared - 19th Feb 19
Gold Stocks are Following This Historical Template - 19th Feb 19
Here’s Why The Left’s New Economic Policies Are Just Stupid - 19th Feb 19
Should We Declare Emergency for Gold? - 19th Feb 19
Why Stock Traders Must Stay Optimistically Cautious Going Forward - 19th Feb 19
The Corporate Debt Bubble Is Strikingly Similar to the Subprime Mortgage Bubble - 18th Feb 19
Stacking The Next QE On Top Of A $4 Trillion Fed Floor - 18th Feb 19
Get ready for the Stock Market Breakout Pattern Setup II - 18th Feb 19
It's Blue Skies For The Stock Market As Far As The Eye Can See - 18th Feb 19
Stock Market Correction is Due - 18th Feb 19
Iran's Death Spiral -- 40 Years And Counting - 17 Feb 19
Venezuela's Opposition Is Playing With Fire - 17 Feb 19
Fed Chairman Deceives; Precious Metals Mine Supply Threatened - 17 Feb 19
After 8 Terrific Weeks for Stocks, What’s Next? - 16th Feb 19
My Favorite Real Estate Strategies: Rent to Live, Buy to Rent - 16th Feb 19
Schumer & Sanders Want One Thing: Your Money - 16th Feb 19
What Could Happen When the Stock Markets Correct Next - 16th Feb 19
Bitcoin Your Best Opportunity Outside of Stocks - 16th Feb 19
Olympus TG-5 Tough Camera Under SEA Water Test - 16th Feb 19
"Mi Amigo" Sheffield Bomber Crash Memorial Site Fly-past on 22nd February 2019 VR360 - 16th Feb 19
Plunging Inventories have Zinc Bulls Ready to Run - 15th Feb 19
Gold Stocks Mega Mergers Are Bad for Shareholders - 15th Feb 19
Retail Sales Crash! It’s 2008 All Over Again for Stock Market and Economy! - 15th Feb 19
Is Gold Market 2019 Like 2016? - 15th Feb 19
Virgin Media's Increasingly Unreliable Broadband Service - 15th Feb 19
2019 Starting to Shine But is it a Long Con for Stock Investors? - 15th Feb 19
Gold is on the Verge of a Bull-run and Here's Why - 15th Feb 19
Will Stock Market 2019 be like 1999? - 14th Feb 19
3 Charts That Scream “Don’t Buy Stocks” - 14th Feb 19
Capitalism Isn’t Bad, It’s Just Broken - 14th Feb 19
How To Find High-Yield Dividend Stocks That Are Safe - 14th Feb 19
Strategy Session - How This Stocks Bear Market Fits in With Markets of the Past - 14th Feb 19
Marijuana Stocks Ready for Another Massive Rally? - 14th Feb 19
Wage Day Advance And Why There is No Shame About It - 14th Feb 19
Will 2019 be the Year of the Big Breakout for Gold? - 13th Feb 19
Earth Overshoot Day Illustrates We are the Lemmings - 13th Feb 19
A Stock Market Rally With No Pullbacks. What’s Next for Stocks - 13th Feb 19
Where Is Gold’s Rally in Response to USD Weakness? - 13th Feb 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

The Real Secret for Successful Trading

Bitcoin Tension Ramps up

Currencies / Bitcoin Jul 03, 2018 - 11:09 PM GMT

By: Mike_McAra

Currencies

The recent couple of days have turned the short-term outlook on its ear for some traders. The last couple of months have seemed like sooth sailing, not something that could be said about the Bitcoin market too many times in the past. Now, we get a different reading and some might say that the tide has turned. But you need to go deeper than that.

Bitcoin has gone up and the bulls are euphoric. This is a marked change from the recent weeks when there was little to nothing for Bitcoin aficionados to cheer to. The main question, however, remains: “Has anything changed?” With the recent appreciation, we could also ask: “Does this action change anything?” Is there anything that could drive the profits on our hypothetical speculative positions?


The move up is transpiring to the mainstream media. In an article on the CNBC website, we read:

After a sluggish start to the year, bitcoin started the month of July with a 12 percent rebound off of last week’s lows.

The cryptocurrency rose 4 percent Monday to near $6,550 as of 9:30 a.m. ET, hitting a high of $6,609.50, according to data from CoinDesk.

Last week, bitcoin skidded to its lowest level since November under $6,000, which traders attributed to CME futures contracts expiring and overall lackluster interest from new buyers. The world’s largest and first cryptocurrency has struggled from that lack of enthusiasm, and prices have dropped 52 percent since January, according to CoinDesk.

Actually, the article takes a sober approach, contrasting the recent action to the upside with the previous drop of 52%. So, even though the title might be implying a bullish change, the text offers a more balanced point of view, highlighting the extent of the previous declines. At a risk of stating the obvious,  Bitcoin’s recent rally pales in comparison with the previous depreciation.

Another point worth stressing is that even if you look at Bitcoin in a longer time horizon, like two or three years and are tempted to conclude that the currency is still up, consider the road you would have take had you bought Bitcoin at that time. To call it a roller coaster would be an understatement. How many investors would have been able to hold on to the currency through all the lows? And even if it’s not fancy to say this, Bitcoin’s volatility is something to keep in mind, something that might potentially get out of hand very quickly. That’s why being ultra bullish or bearish on this market all the time is not a great idea.

Back Above April 1 Low

On BitStamp, we are seeing a rebound from the recent low below $5,800. In particular, this rebound has brought Bitcoin above the level of the April 1 low. So, it’s tempting to see this action as a bullish turnaround.

We’re not in the business of choosing tempting outcomes, though. Actually, we’re very interested in seeing situations which look tempting one way but turn out to be exactly the opposite of what can be seen on the surface. And right now, if we’re not seeing such a situation, then at least we’re seeing one which could very quickly evolve to be one.

The short-term bullish outlook is not confirmed by daily closes. Neither is it confirmed by the volume that has accompanied the move up. So, in spite of the flashy nature of the move, we haven’t really seen much in the way of a bullish confirmation. The move above the April 1 low is the main bullish hint and it is not even confirmed yet.

Given the extent of the declines we can see on the chart above, it is only natural for Bitcoin to rebound and go up for some time before turning back South. This is further supported by the fact that the RSI is now back around 50, which suggests that the currency is not in an extreme position, so a move to the downside wouldn’t necessarily exhaust the selling power.

Limited Sign

On the long-term Bitfinex chart, we see that the currency is not in an extreme position either. Taking a look at the long-term chart and seeing Bitcoin in perspective might decisively change one’s outlook. Even if the current action seems exciting, it is nothing extraordinary compared with previous corrections in the currency.



Bitcoin is still above the level from which the bulk of the rally to $20,000 occurred. This level is at around $5,400, not very far from where the currency is trading at the moment of writing these words. So, there’s no bullish indication based on this level.

The one bullish indication we’re seeing at the moment is the fact that Bitcoin went below the level of the February bottom ($6,000) and came back above this level. This is a bullish indication and one based on a very significant support level – the February bottom was spectacular in terms of the volume. So, which one is more important – the lack of a range of bullish indications or the presence of one indication based on an important level?

Our answer here is that we might be seeing a short-term correction in the Bitcoin market. This might be why the currency is above the February low. At the same time, we haven’t seen multiple confirmed bullish indications, so the overall outlook remains bearish. A move up at this time is nothing out of the usual, given the extent of the previous declines. Betting on higher prices at this time, or even getting out of the shorts doesn’t seem the way to go as the volatility might rise rapidly and if Bitcoin goes back down, there might not be time to get back on the short side of the market.

The one thing that’s worth monitoring at this time is the volume in Bitcoin – if we see a further move up confirmed by the volume, we might change our short-term outlook but we’re not seeing this at the moment and the outlook remains bearish.

Summing up, the situation is very tense but the outlook remains bearish at the moment.

If you have enjoyed the above analysis and would like to receive free follow-ups, we encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter – it’s free and if you don’t like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you’ll also get 7 days of free access to our premium daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up now.

Regards,

Mike McAra
Bitcoin Trading Strategist

Bitcoin Trading Alerts at SunshineProfits.com

Disclaimer

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Mike McAra and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Mike McAra and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. McAra is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Mike McAra’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Mike McAra, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Mike McAra Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules