Most Popular
1. THE INFLATION MONSTER is Forecasting RECESSION - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Why APPLE Could CRASH the Stock Market! - Nadeem_Walayat
3.The Stocks Stealth BEAR Market - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Inflation, Commodities and Interest Rates : Paradigm Shifts in Macrotrends - Rambus_Chartology
5.Stock Market in the Eye of the Storm, Visualising AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
6.AI Tech Stocks Earnings BloodBath Buying Opportunity - Nadeem_Walayat
7.PPT HALTS STOCK MARKET CRASH ahead of Fed May Interest Rate Hike Meeting - Nadeem_Walayat
8.50 Small Cap Growth Stocks Analysis to CAPITALISE on the Stock Market Inflation -Nadeem_Walayat
9.WE HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO INVEST IN STOCKS AND HOUSING MARKET - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Apple and Microsoft Nuts Are About to CRACK and Send Stock Market Sharply Lower - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
UK Housing Market Analysis, Trend Forecast 2022 to 2025 - Part 2 - 30th June 22
Stock Market Turning the Screws - 30th June 22
How to Ignore Stocks (and why you should) - 30th June 22
Top Tips For Getting The Correct Insurance Option For Your Needs - 30th June 22
Central Banks Plan To Buy More Gold In 2022 - 30th June 22
AI Tech Stock PORTFOLIO NAME OF THE GAME - 29th June 22
Rebounding Crude Oil Gets Far Away from the Bearish Side - 29th June 22
UK House Prices - Lets Get Jiggy With UK INTEREST RATES - 28th June 22
GOLD STOCKS ARE WORSE THAN GOLD - 28th June 22
This “Bizarre” Chart is Wrecking the Stock Market - 28th June 22
Recession Question Answered - 28th June 22
Technical Analysis: Why You Should Expect a Popularity Surge - 28th June 22
Have US Bonds Bottomed? - 27th June 22
Gold Junior Miners: A Bearish Push Is Coming to Move Them Lower - 27th June 22
Stock Market Watching Out - 27th June 22
The NEXT BIG EMPIRE WILL BE..... CANZUK - 25th June 22
Who (or What) Is Really in Charge of Bitcoin's Price Swings? - 25th June 22
Crude Oil Price Forecast - Trend Breaks Downward – Rejecting The $120 Level - 25th June 22
Everyone and their Grandma is Expecting a Big Stocks Bear Market Rally - 23rd June 22
The Fed’s Hawkish Bite Left Its Mark on the S&P 500 Stocks - 23rd June 22
No Dodging the Stock Market Bullet - 23rd June 22
How To Set Up A Business To Better Manage In The Free Market - 23rd June 22
Why Are Precious Metals Considered A Good Investment? Find Out Here - 23rd June 22
UK House Prices and the Inflation Mega-trend - 22nd June 22
Sportsbook Betting Reviews: How to Choose a Sportsbook- 22nd June 22
Looking to buy Cannabis Stocks? - 22nd June 22
UK House Prices Momentum Forecast - 21st June 22
The Fed is Incompetent - Beware the Dancing Market Puppet - 21st June 22
US Economy Headed for a Hard Landing - 21st June 22
How to Invest in EU - New Opportunities Uncovered - 21st June 22
How To Protect Your Assets During Inflation - 21st June 22

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Will Cryptocurrencies Replace Gold?

Currencies / BlockChain Mar 12, 2019 - 06:19 PM GMT

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Currencies

The World Gold Council has issued quite a few interesting papers recently. In this edition of the Gold News Monitor, we discuss the most provocative ones. Such as the money worthiness of gold compared to Bitcoin. Or the ongoing gold repatriation trend as Romania recently joined the fray. What kind of learnings can the precious metals investors draw here?


Cryptocurrencies Are No Substitute for Gold

In January, the World Gold Council (WGC) published an investment update about the cryptocurrencies. The main aim of the report is to refute the claim that cryptocurrencies could replace gold. The authors do not agree, pointing out that gold differs substantially from cryptocurrencies. In particular, the yellow metal:

• is less volatile – the dollar-denominated gold price is about 10 times less volatile than Bitcoin price;
• has a more liquid market - Bitcoin turnover is $2 billion a day on average, which is roughly less than 1 percent of the total gold market that has turnover of around approximately $250 billion a day;
• trades in an established regulatory framework;
• has a well understood role in an investment portfolio;
• has little overlap with cryptocurrencies on many sources of demand and supply;
• has broad appeal outside the tech-savvy demographics.

All these differences explain why Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are not a substitute for gold. In particular, the former should not be considered a safe havens. The best example is Q4 2018, where global stock markets experienced their worst quarter since 2009 - cryptocurrencies then performed as risky assets and fell, while gold rallied. Although you can also pick periods when gold did not behave like safe-haven asset, we generally agree that cryptocurrencies are not substitute for the precious metals. Bitcoin was designed to mimic gold, but it has still to prove its moneyness, while gold has a proven few thousand years history as an monetary asset.

Gold Demand Trends in 2018

On the last day of January, the WGC published its summary of the gold market in 2018. From the market perspective, the developments of last year belong to the days of yore, so we will not analyze the whole market. However, we would like to point your attention to one important trend: central banks added 651.5 tons to their gold reserves in 2018, the second highest yearly total on record. And net purchases jumped to their highest since the end of gold standard in 1971, as more central banks turned to gold as a portfolio diversifier.

Importantly, the rise in official purchases was accompanied by the increasing repatriation of gold. Many analysts interpreted this as a signal of intensifying nationalism, but there is also another narrative. The repatriation of gold signals that the central banks stopped lending gold for any significant volumes. You see, when you want to lend out your gold, you keep it in the Bank of England, the Fed, or other systematically important third party location, not in your own vaults. It means that – despite many speculations – the central banks definitely less intervene in the precious metals market. That’s good news for all investors who desire greater transparency and fairer price discovery process.

WGC’s 2018 Annual Review

In February, the WGC published the review of its activity in 2018. Although most of the content is not interesting for the gold investors, the WGC included also its market outlook for 2019. In short, the organization believes that increased market uncertainty and protectionist economic policies should make gold increasingly attractive as a hedge. Moreover, the slowdown in the US economy could curtail rising interest rates and limit dollar strength, which would be supportive for the gold prices.

And in 2019, we should see increasing concerns about a global growth slowdown or even outright recession fears with resulting elevated stock market volatility, and political and economic instability in Europe. Indeed, that’s exactly what has just happened – in the last edition of the Gold News Monitor, we have discussed the recent major policy reversal of the ECB following the slashed economic growth forecast for the euro zone, and its implications for the gold market.

Thank you.

If you enjoyed the above analysis and would you like to know more about the gold ETFs and their impact on gold price, we invite you to read the April Market Overview report. If you're interested in the detailed price analysis and price projections with targets, we invite you to sign up for our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts . If you're not ready to subscribe at this time, we invite you to sign up for our gold newsletter and stay up-to-date with our latest free articles. It's free and you can unsubscribe anytime.

Arkadiusz Sieron
Sunshine Profits‘ Market Overview Editor

Disclaimer

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Arkadiusz Sieron Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in