Predictive Modeling Suggest Oil Price Headed Much Lower
Commodities / Crude Oil Jul 11, 2019 - 07:50 AM GMTBy: Chris_Vermeulen
Our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive price modeling system is suggesting Crude Oil will likely continue to find resistance near $64 as a price ceiling and trend lower over the next 3 to 5 months – eventually breaking below the $40 price level near the end of 2019 or in early 2020.
Our research team believes this move could very well be contingent on a continued decline in global economic activity as well as our research suggesting that global currencies could be setting up for a breakdown event.
The USA and FED will do everything in their powers to keep the economy looking strong and to hold markets up like talking about rate cuts, but eventually the music will stop, but until then we need to be long and strong stocks and keep a close eye on leading indicators like small caps, oil, transportation and industrial sectors for early warning signs.
Please read the following research posts for more information:
Report #1: PART III – DEBT CRISIS TO BE REBORN IN 2020
Report #2: KING DOLLAR RIDES HIGHER CREATING PRESSURES ON FOREIGN ECONOMIES
Report #3: FEAR DRIVES MARKET EXPECTATIONS
We believe the breakdown in support for Crude Oil will coincide with a general perception of global economic weakness, foreign Central Bank posturing and the possibility that foreign currency weakness may push global demand for Oil much lower than current expectations.
The volatility increased suggested near the right side of this chart, in late 2019 and early 2020, are indicative of oil prices reaching a critical support level while attempting to re-balance supply/demand-side economic factors against historic price lows. This will likely become a period where global oil traders feel the need to try to push oil prices higher while supply/demand factors settle to establish a basis price level for future price trends.
IN CONCLUSION:
If our ADL predictive modeling is correct, we will see rotation between $47 and $64 over the next 3+ months before a breakdown in price hits in November 2019. This will be followed by two fairly narrow price range months (December 2019 and January 2020) where oil prices will tighten near $45 to $50. After that tightening, we believe an extremely volatile price move will happen in February through April 2020 that could see oil prices trade as low as $22 and as high as $51 over a two to three-month span.
As we’ve continued to state, 2019 and 2020 are going to include incredible opportunities for skilled technical traders and investors. Think about how a more like this in Oil and the global markets will reflect into the precious metals markets and the US Dollar?
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www.TheTechnicalTraders.com
Chris Vermeulen has been involved in the markets since 1997 and is the founder of Technical Traders Ltd. He is an internationally recognized technical analyst, trader, and is the author of the book: 7 Steps to Win With Logic
Through years of research, trading and helping individual traders around the world. He learned that many traders have great trading ideas, but they lack one thing, they struggle to execute trades in a systematic way for consistent results. Chris helps educate traders with a three-hour video course that can change your trading results for the better.
His mission is to help his clients boost their trading performance while reducing market exposure and portfolio volatility.
He is a regular speaker on HoweStreet.com, and the FinancialSurvivorNetwork radio shows. Chris was also featured on the cover of AmalgaTrader Magazine, and contributes articles to several leading financial hubs like MarketOracle.co.uk
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