US Economic Data and Events for September 30, 2008

By: Joseph_Brusuelas

* The failure of the TARP on the floor of the House of Representatives has moved action towards overnight trading in Asia and early morning action in Europe. With the credit markets currently jammed up, volatility should be expected to shape the overnight action and the direction of US markets in early morning trading Tuesday.

• News flow will provide direction for the markets as Congress dithers over what action to take to stem the tide of the growing crisis. It does appear that the plan in its current form, or in another, will not be resubmitted to House until Thursday at the earliest.

• Look for possible Treasury or Fed announcements during the pre-market hours. Traders have priced in a full fifty basis point cut in the federal funds rate. While we do not think it a likely event, overt concerns in the market regarding the fragility of the financial system and the economic fallout of the credit panic, it cannot be completely discounted.

• Lingering concern over the condition of the US banking system and growing concern of the status of the financial sector in Europe should be the major economic factors that drive pricing action during the day.

• Macro data will see the July Case Schiller estimate of price action in the housing sector and the September Chicago PMI and Consumer Confidence reports. ISCS same store sales estimate and the Redbook survey will provide information on the condition of the retail sector and the appetite for retail goods among the public. These data will be second order questions during the upcoming trading day. • The US Treasury will conduct a four-week bill auction at 1:00 PM and settle a two year and five year note.

By Joseph Brusuelas
Chief Economist, VP Global Strategy of the Merk Hard Currency Fund

Bridging academic rigor and communications, Joe Brusuelas provides the Merk team with significant experience in advanced research and analysis of macro-economic factors, as well as in identifying how economic trends impact investors.  As Chief Economist and Global Strategist, he is responsible for heading Merk research and analysis and communicating the Merk Perspective to the markets.

Mr. Brusuelas holds an M.A and a B.A. in Political Science from San Diego State and is a PhD candidate at the University of Southern California, Los Angeles.

Before joining Merk, Mr. Brusuelas was the chief US Economist at IDEAglobal in New York.  Before that he spent 8 years in academia as a researcher and lecturer covering themes spanning macro- and microeconomics, money, banking and financial markets.  In addition, he has worked at Citibank/Salomon Smith Barney, First Fidelity Bank and Great Western Investment Management.

© 2008 Merk Investments® LLC
The Merk Hard Currency Fund is managed by Merk Investments, an investment advisory firm that invests with discipline and long-term focus while adapting to changing environments. Axel Merk, president of Merk Investments, makes all investment decisions for the Merk Hard Currency Fund. Mr. Merk founded Merk Investments AG in Switzerland in 1994; in 2001, he relocated the business to the US where all investment advisory activities are conducted by Merk Investments LLC, a SEC-registered investment adviser.

Merk Investments has since pursued a macro-economic approach to investing, with substantial gold and hard currency exposure.

Merk Investments is making the Merk Hard Currency Fund available to retail investors to allow them to diversify their portfolios and, through the fund, invest in a basket of hard currencies.

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