Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
US Housing Market Analysis - Immigration Drives House Prices Higher - 30th Sep 24
Stock Market October Correction - 30th Sep 24
The Folly of Tariffs and Trade Wars - 30th Sep 24
Gold: 5 principles to help you stay ahead of price turns - 30th Sep 24
The Everything Rally will Spark multi year Bull Market - 30th Sep 24
US FIXED MORTGAGES LIMITING SUPPLY - 23rd Sep 24
US Housing Market Free Equity - 23rd Sep 24
US Rate Cut FOMO In Stock Market Correction Window - 22nd Sep 24
US State Demographics - 22nd Sep 24
Gold and Silver Shine as the Fed Cuts Rates: What’s Next? - 22nd Sep 24
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks:Nothing Can Topple This Market - 22nd Sep 24
US Population Growth Rate - 17th Sep 24
Are Stocks Overheating? - 17th Sep 24
Sentiment Speaks: Silver Is At A Major Turning Point - 17th Sep 24
If The Stock Market Turn Quickly, How Bad Can Things Get? - 17th Sep 24
IMMIGRATION DRIVES HOUSE PRICES HIGHER - 12th Sep 24
Global Debt Bubble - 12th Sep 24
Gold’s Outlook CPI Data - 12th Sep 24
RECESSION When Yield Curve Uninverts - 8th Sep 24
Sentiment Speaks: Silver Is Set Up To Shine - 8th Sep 24
Precious Metals Shine in August: Gold and Silver Surge Ahead - 8th Sep 24
Gold’s Demand Comeback - 8th Sep 24
Gold’s Quick Reversal and Copper’s Major Indications - 8th Sep 24
GLOBAL WARMING Housing Market Consequences Right Now - 6th Sep 24
Crude Oil’s Sign for Gold Investors - 6th Sep 24
Stocks Face Uncertainty Following Sell-Off- 6th Sep 24
GOLD WILL CONTINUE TO OUTPERFORM MINING SHARES - 6th Sep 24
AI Stocks Portfolio and Bitcoin September 2024 - 3rd Sep 24
2024 = 1984 - AI Equals Loss of Agency - 30th Aug 24
UBI - Universal Billionaire Income - 30th Aug 24
US COUNTING DOWN TO CRISIS, CATASTROPHE AND COLLAPSE - 30th Aug 24
GBP/USD Uptrend: What’s Next for the Pair? - 30th Aug 24
The Post-2020 History of the 10-2 US Treasury Yield Curve - 30th Aug 24
Stocks Likely to Extend Consolidation: Topping Pattern Forming? - 30th Aug 24
Why Stock-Market Success Is Usually Only Temporary - 30th Aug 24
The Consequences of AI - 24th Aug 24
Can Greedy Politicians Really Stop Price Inflation With a "Price Gouging" Ban? - 24th Aug 24
Why Alien Intelligence Cannot Predict the Future - 23rd Aug 24
Stock Market Surefire Way to Go Broke - 23rd Aug 24
RIP Google Search - 23rd Aug 24
What happened to the Fed’s Gold? - 23rd Aug 24
US Dollar Reserves Have Dropped By 14 Percent Since 2002 - 23rd Aug 24
Will Electric Vehicles Be the Killer App for Silver? - 23rd Aug 24
EUR/USD Update: Strong Uptrend and Key Levels to Watch - 23rd Aug 24
Gold Mid-Tier Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 23rd Aug 24
My GCSE Exam Results Day Shock! 2024 - 23rd Aug 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Range Bound Financial Markets and Economy in Good Shape

Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019 Jul 27, 2019 - 12:15 PM GMT

By: QUANTO

Stock-Markets

Markets at all time highs and considerably calmer option market VIX index suggest that we could be in a slow grind higher for risk markets.

ECB Drahghi hits at easing

Christopher Graham, economist at Standard Chartered, notes that the European Central Bank (ECB) kept rates on hold at its 25 July meeting, but President Mario Draghi sent a strong signal that further easing would be delivered in September as per expectations. Key Quotes “By adjusting its forward guidance to note that rates would remain at current “or lower levels” until at least mid-2020 (in line with our expectations), the ECB has reinforced our view that interest rate cuts will be delivered after the summer break.” “We continue to expect a 10bps deposit rate cut in September and a further 10bps cut in December, to -0.60% by year-end.” “The Governing Council (GC) is also considering a broader package of measures; Draghi noted that committees have been tasked to explore other options, including new net asset purchases (both in size and composition), tiered deposit rates, and ways to reinforce forward guidance on policy rates.” “In a sign that the ECB has become increasingly concerned about the euro-area inflation outlook and persistently low inflation expectations, it also noted its “commitment to symmetry in the inflation aim”, implying that an overshoot of 2.0% would now be tolerated.” “The bar to other policy measures remains higher than for rate cuts, in our view, and Draghi admitted that agreement on the GC was not unanimous. Nonetheless, the likelihood of QE being restarted by year-end has increased considering press release, particularly if euro-area economic activity remains weak or deteriorates further.” “At the same time, we reiterate that a convincing QE programme would need to be open-ended and would require controversial rule changes, most likely a change to issuer limits.


US Funds withdraw

The US-based equity funds witnessed more than $8.4 billion of cash withdrawals in the week ended Wednesday, according to Refinitiv's Lipper. The withdrawals have come ahead of next week's Federal Reserve meeting. The central bank is widely expected to cut rates by 25 basis points. The move has been priced in and the outflow of funds from equities indicate the market may see "sell the fact" action following a rate cut on July 31. While equities saw outflows, the US-based money market funds attracted $26 billion, their fifth consecutive week of inflows.

US to Japanese yield spread

US to Japanese yield spread is in a downtrend. Any moves to widen the spread is being met with resistance which suggests that USDJPY will be sold at every rally.

USDJPY has risen to 108.65 in asia but the overhead resistance and yields sluggishness suggest we will see further downside at least to 108.3 if not lower

AUDUSD bond spreads

The Aussie 10 year yield spread to US 10 year yield has broken to new lows. This is suggestive that AUDUSD could fall further possibly to new lows under 6800

EURUSD analysis

Preliminary figures for eur futures markets from CME Group noted open interest increased for the third session in a row on Thursday, this time by more than 2.1K contracts. In the same line, volume rose by nearly 135.7K contracts, the largest single day uptick since June 12. EUR/USD a drop below 1.1100 looks unconvincing EUR/USD met strong support in the 1.1100 neighbourhood, or fresh 2019 lows, and rebounded to the 1.1190 region on Thursday, all amidst increasing open interest and volume. Unclear price action against this backdrop leaves spot somewhat neutral in the short term, with the key 1.1100 handle holding the downside for the time being.

Fundamental Analysis Kansas FED manufacturing Index

The index is at 2019 lows. Trade wars have started to impact manufacturing in a big way and FED will be watching the numbers.

German IFO Business climate

The IFO German Business climate index is crashing. It is now under 50 mark for 3 months which is enough to signal the onset of a recession. Germany could be the first developed economy to tip into recession and we believe the rest will follow suit fairly quickly by the end of 2019.

France PPI

Supply side inflation is on a slippery path in france. The current actual data at -0.5 is lower than the previous release at -0.4. The mean for " PPI MoM " over the last 68 releases is -0.1. The current actual data is lower than the mean of the last 68 releases. The last reported data was on 2019-07-26

EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change

Natural gas stocks have fallen in latest report filing. The current actual data at 36 is lower than the previous release at 62. The mean for " EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change " over the last 100 releases is -2.5. The latest release is greater than the mean of the last 100 releases.

Good Trade balance (US)

The good and trade balane is worsening for US. There is a minor improvement but still overing in deep red at -75 bn. Tariff does not seem to have improved the negative balance and it will be worrying sign for US. The current actual data at -74.17 is higher than the previous release at -75.0. The mean for " Goods Trade Balance Adv " over the last 27 releases is -69.4. The current actual data is lower than the mean of the last 27 releases. The last reported data was on 2019-07-25

Canadian Weekly earnings: better than previous

Average Weekly Earnings YoY MAY 3.4% previous 2.6%. There seems to be blip in earning as we see some inflaiton creeping in. The current actual data at 3.4 is higher than the previous release at 2.6. The mean for " Average Weekly Earnings YoY " over the last 7 releases is 2.2. The latest release is greater than the mean of the last 7 releases. The last reported data was on 2019-07-25

SPX consolidation at highs

SPX is consolidating at highs. There is no sign of panic at 3000. No major sell volume seen. Fed rate at 2.5% and yet SPX a t3000. When FED does begin a easing cycle, we could see further extension in equity prices.

QUANTO Trade copier

We run a stable income and wealth generating trading system called QUANTO. It is the ONLY trading system available to copy for retail clients which works on the bond market yield fundamentals. It has been performing briliantly all thru summer months and has a record of 9 years of sublime trading.

Equity curve since launching for retail clients in May 2019.

July monthly returns are at +21%. This comes after June made +10% and May made +22%. These are almost unbelievable returns but forex market trading system is known to generate these returns for about 0.5% of traders. Real wealth generation at display.

We have kept the system free to trial out for any amount before you go pro on it. Contact us to get started

By Quanto

http://quanto.live

Quanto.live is a Investment Management firm with active Trading for clients including Forex, Crypto. We send our trades via trade copiers which are copied to clients trading terminals. Top notch fundamental analysis and trading analysis help our clients to generate superior returns. Reach out to us: http://quanto.live/reach-us/

© 2019 Copyright Quanto - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in