Most Popular
1. Banking Crisis is Stocks Bull Market Buying Opportunity - Nadeem_Walayat
2.The Crypto Signal for the Precious Metals Market - P_Radomski_CFA
3. One Possible Outcome to a New World Order - Raymond_Matison
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Apple AAPL Stock Trend and Earnings Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
6.AI, Stocks, and Gold Stocks – Connected After All - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Stock Market CHEAT SHEET - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.US Debt Ceiling Crisis Smoke and Mirrors Circus - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Silver Price May Explode - Avi_Gilburt
10.More US Banks Could Collapse -- A Lot More- EWI
Last 7 days
Stock Market Volatility (VIX) - 25th Mar 24
Stock Market Investor Sentiment - 25th Mar 24
The Federal Reserve Didn't Do Anything But It Had Plenty to Say - 25th Mar 24
Stock Market Breadth - 24th Mar 24
Stock Market Margin Debt Indicator - 24th Mar 24
It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - 24th Mar 24
Stocks: What to Make of All This Insider Selling- 24th Mar 24
Money Supply Continues To Fall, Economy Worsens – Investors Don’t Care - 24th Mar 24
Get an Edge in the Crypto Market with Order Flow - 24th Mar 24
US Presidential Election Cycle and Recessions - 18th Mar 24
US Recession Already Happened in 2022! - 18th Mar 24
AI can now remember everything you say - 18th Mar 24
Bitcoin Crypto Mania 2024 - MicroStrategy MSTR Blow off Top! - 14th Mar 24
Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - 11th Mar 24
Gold and the Long-Term Inflation Cycle - 11th Mar 24
Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - 11th Mar 24
Two Reasons The Fed Manipulates Interest Rates - 11th Mar 24
US Dollar Trend 2024 - 9th Mar 2024
The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - 9th Mar 2024
Investors Don’t Believe the Gold Rally, Still Prefer General Stocks - 9th Mar 2024
Paper Gold Vs. Real Gold: It's Important to Know the Difference - 9th Mar 2024
Stocks: What This "Record Extreme" Indicator May Be Signaling - 9th Mar 2024
My 3 Favorite Trade Setups - Elliott Wave Course - 9th Mar 2024
Bitcoin Crypto Bubble Mania! - 4th Mar 2024
US Interest Rates - When WIll the Fed Pivot - 1st Mar 2024
S&P Stock Market Real Earnings Yield - 29th Feb 2024
US Unemployment is a Fake Statistic - 29th Feb 2024
U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - 29th Feb 2024
What a Breakdown in Silver Mining Stocks! What an Opportunity! - 29th Feb 2024
Why AI will Soon become SA - Synthetic Intelligence - The Machine Learning Megatrend - 29th Feb 2024
Keep Calm and Carry on Buying Quantum AI Tech Stocks - 19th Feb 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Checking in on Gold & Silver Sentiment

Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019 Nov 27, 2019 - 04:59 PM GMT

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Commodities

The precious metals sector remains in a correction. The miners have shown some positive signs but are not ready to move yet because the metals likely have more correction ahead.

Technical support levels can provide us with low risk buy opportunities but combine that with sentiment data and we increase our odds of success.

One reason why the sector is stuck in a correction is because the net speculative position in Gold remains stubbornly high at 44% of open interest. Following interim peaks in the 2000s, the net speculative position usually fell to 30% and even 20% at times before Gold began its next impulsive advance.


We anticipate Gold will test $1400 and perhaps lower and that will clear out some of the specs.

Gold Weekly & Gold CoT

Other sentiment data for Gold is more encouraging.

As of mid November, outflows in GLD reached their highest level since the December 2016 low. Judging from the outflows around the previous lows, Gold likely needs a few more weeks of outflows to signal a bottom.

GLD Weekly Fund Flows

As we noted here over three months ago, the 21-day daily sentiment index (DSI) like the net speculative position often declines to and below 30% during corrections within bull markets. Last I checked, the 21-day DSI was 38.5%. It has decreased from a whopping 84% but still has more room to fall. 

Turning to Silver, we note a current net speculative position of 30% of open interest which is below previous peaks of 40% and 50%. During corrections within the bull market of the 2000s, Silver’s net speculative position often bottomed around 25%.

Silver Weekly & Silver CoT

Elsewhere, the 21-day DSI for Silver is currently 63% which is stubbornly high. While Silver’s net speculative position isn’t extended, its DSI is.

Essentially, both the technicals and sentiment suggest the path of least resistance for Gold and Silver is lower. 

We are looking at downside targets of $1400 and lower in Gold and roughly $16.00 for Silver. Should the metals test those levels, then sentiment indicators would reach more encouraging levels that could finally favor the bulls.

If and when that occurs, it could create excellent buying opportunities across the sector. Some juniors could bottom sooner while some could bottom around the end of tax loss selling.

We continue to focus on identifying and accumulating the juniors with significant upside potential in 2020.

To learn the stocks we own and intend to buy during the next correction that have 3x to 5x potential, consider learning more about our premium service.

Good Luck!

Email: Jordan@TheDailyGold.com
Service Link: http://thedailygold.com/premium

Bio: Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT  is a Chartered Market Technician, a member of the Market Technicians Association and from 2010-2014 an official contributor to the CME Group, the largest futures exchange in the world. He is the publisher and editor of TheDailyGold Premium, a publication which emphaszies market timing and stock selection for the sophisticated investor.  Jordan's work has been featured in CNBC, Barrons, Financial Times Alphaville, and his editorials are regularly published in 321gold, Gold-Eagle, FinancialSense, GoldSeek, Kitco and Yahoo Finance. He is quoted regularly in Barrons. Jordan was a speaker at PDAC 2012, the largest mining conference in the world.

Jordan Roy-Byrne Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in