Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Stock Markets and the History Chart of the End of the World (With Presidential Cycles) - 28th Aug 20
2.Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook... AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels and Valuations Q3 2020 - 31st Aug 20
3.The Inflation Mega-trend is Going Hyper! - 11th Sep 20
4.Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
5.What's Driving Gold, Silver and What's Next? - 3rd Sep 20
6.QE4EVER! - 9th Sep 20
7.Gold Price Trend Forecast Analysis - Part1 - 7th Sep 20
8.The Fed May “Cause” The Next Stock Market Crash - 3rd Sep 20
9.Bitcoin Price Crash - You Will be Suprised What Happens Next - 7th Sep 20
10.NVIDIA Stock Price Soars on RTX 3000 Cornering the GPU Market for next 2 years! - 3rd Sep 20
Last 7 days
Key Time For Stock Markets: Bears Step Up or V-Shaped Bounce - 24th Sep 20
Five ways to recover the day after a good workout - 24th Sep 20
Global Stock Markets Break Hard To The Downside – Watch Support Levels - 23rd Sep 20
Beware of These Faulty “Inflation Protected” Investments - 23rd Sep 20
What’s Behind Dollar USDX Breakout? - 23rd Sep 20
Still More Room To Stock Market Downside In The Coming Weeks - 23rd Sep 20
Platinum And Palladium Set To Surge As Gold Breaks Higher - 23rd Sep 20
Key Gold Ratios to Other Markets - 23rd Sep 20
Watch Before Upgrading / Buying RTX 3000, RDNA2 - CPU vs GPU Bottlenecks - 23rd Sep 20
Online Elliott Wave Markets Trading Course Worth $129 for FREE! - 22nd Sep 20
Gold Price Overboughtness Risk - 22nd Sep 20
Central Banking Cartel Promises ZIRP Until at Least 2023 - 22nd Sep 20
Stock Market Correction Approaching Initial Objective - 22nd Sep 20
Silver Bulls Will Be Handsomely Rewarded - 21st Sep 20
Fed Will Not Hike Rates For Years. Gold Should Like It - 21st Sep 20
US Financial Market Forecasts and Elliott Wave Analysis Resources - 21st Sep 20
How to Avoid Currency Exchange Risk during COVID - 21st Sep 20
Crude Oil – A Slight Move Higher Has Not Reversed The Bearish Trend - 20th Sep 20
Do This Instead Of Trying To Find The “Next Amazon” - 20th Sep 20
5 Significant Benefits of the MT4 Trading Platform for Forex Traders - 20th Sep 20
A Warning of Economic Collapse - 20th Sep 20
The Connection Between Stocks and the Economy is not What Most Investors Think - 19th Sep 20
A Virus So Deadly, The Government Has to Test You to See If You Have It - 19th Sep 20
Will Lagarde and Mnuchin Push Gold Higher? - 19th Sep 20
RTX 3080 Mania, Ebay Scalpers Crazy Prices £62,000 Trollers Insane Bids for a £649 GPU! - 19th Sep 20
A Greater Economic Depression For The 21st Century - 19th Sep 20
The United Floor in Stocks - 19th Sep 20
Mobile Gaming Market Trends And The Expected Future Developments - 19th Sep 20
The S&P 500 appears ready to correct, and that is a good thing - 18th Sep 20
It’s Go Time for Gold Price! Next Stop $2,250 - 18th Sep 20
Forget AMD RDNA2 and Buy Nvidia RTX 3080 FE GPU's NOW Before Price - 18th Sep 20
Best Back to School / University Black Face Masks Quick and Easy from Amazon - 18th Sep 20
3 Types of Loans to Buy an Existing Business - 18th Sep 20
How to tell Budgie Gender, Male or Female Sex for Young and Mature Parakeets - 18th Sep 20
Fasten Your Seatbelts Stock Market Make Or Break – Big Trends Ahead - 17th Sep 20
Peak Financialism And Post-Capitalist Economics - 17th Sep 20
Challenges of Working from Home - 17th Sep 20
Sheffield Heading for Coronavirus Lockdown as Covid Deaths Pass 432 - 17th Sep 20
What Does this Valuable Gold Miners Indicator Say Now? - 16th Sep 20
President Trump and Crimes Against Humanity - 16th Sep 20
Slow Economic Recovery from CoronaVirus Unlikely to Impede Strong Demand for Metals - 16th Sep 20
Why the Knives Are Out for Trump’s Fed Critic Judy Shelton - 16th Sep 20
Operation Moonshot: Get Ready for Millions of New COVAIDS Positives in the UK! - 16th Sep 20
Stock Market Approaching Correction Objective - 15th Sep 20
Look at This Big Reminder of Dot.com Stock Market Mania - 15th Sep 20
Three Key Principles for Successful Disruption Investors - 15th Sep 20
Billionaire Hedge Fund Manager Warns of 10% Inflation - 15th Sep 20
Gold Price Reaches $2,000 Amid Dollar Depreciation - 15th Sep 20
GLD, IAU Big Gold ETF Buying MIA - 14th Sep 20
Why Bill Gates Is Betting Millions on Synthetic Biology - 14th Sep 20
Stock Market SPY Expectations For The Rest Of September - 14th Sep 20
Gold Price Gann Angle Update - 14th Sep 20
Stock Market Recovery from the Sharp Correction Goes On - 14th Sep 20
Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
The Silver Big Prize - 13th Sep 20
U.S. Shares Plunged. Is Gold Next? - 13th Sep 20
Why Are 7,500 Oil Barrels Floating on this London Lake? - 13th Sep 20
Sheffield 432 Covid-19 Deaths, Last City Centre Shop Before Next Lockdown - 13th Sep 20
Biden or Trump Will Keep The Money Spigots Open - 13th Sep 20
Gold And Silver Up, Down, Sideways, Up - 13th Sep 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Get Rich Investing in Stocks by Riding the Electron Wave

Gold and the Flood of Cheap Government Money

Politics / Gold & Silver Oct 08, 2008 - 05:20 PM GMT

By: Paul_Tustain

Politics

Best Financial Markets Analysis Article"...If we allow governments to control finance, we give them extraordinary power over which projects are allowed and which are deemed inappropriate..."

The BRITISH PRIME MINISTER , Gordon Brown, says the current mess in world finance and credit is the fault of "irresponsible" bankers.


Well, he would say that, wouldn't he?

Let's not forget that Mr.Brown claimed the credit for 10 years of unbroken growth here in Britain. For those 10 years he copied Alan Greenspan – the ex-US Fed chairman – by holding interest rates unusually low, aiming to encourage investment and demand, which is a near-sighted economist's way of avoiding mild recessions.

But this low-interest rate medicine stimulates both the supply and the demand for those products which Mr.Brown now blames bankers for promoting. It leads directly to a world of crazy finance, because low rates punish caution.

In a time of state-sponsored easy credit all projects get financed by incautious banks with cheap, centrally supplied money. There is no market for cautiously lent money, priced correctly for the risk involved. Why would anyone pay more for funds from a cautious bank when cheaper funds are available from easier sources?

This is why the profits of incautious banks grew, and why their stock prices multiplied. Meanwhile careful bankers sunk. As Brown (and Greenspan) injected ever more money into the economy the cautious banks began to lose their customers, their managers, their share values, and their independence. This Darwinian extinction of caution is the direct result of a monetary environment which was hostile to cautious bankers, one which favored those banks with an appetite for cheap money.

So be in no doubt about the cause of the credit crunch. It was too much cut-price credit, and the blame for the supply of it rests squarely on the likes of Gordon Brown and Alan Greenspan.

So much for the blame. What now?

It seems almost everyone – from both the right and the left of the political spectrum – agrees that the world needs more government intervention in the form of bail-outs and increasing regulation. We're getting it, too.

Yet once we have grasped that the underlying cause of this disaster was credit creation by government itself, we should perhaps be a bit wary of putting governments ever more in charge.

Governments operate a cheap credit policy in order to defer pain, stay popular, and get re-elected. The US, British, Australian, Russian and now pan-European bank rescues are intended to create and promote a higher volume of cheaper and easier credit than the market really wants. They aim to supply yet more of the wretched stuff which got us here in the first place.

Is that really so wise?

If we allow governments to control finance through regulation, we give them extraordinary power over the direction of the economy. Because they can (and will) deny finance to some projects and grant it to other, more politically appropriate ones. Such government control has repeatedly shown itself to be much worse than our imperfect marketplace at handling the power of economic direction – both in this case, where their efforts at economic stimulation are the root cause of the fiasco, as well as in recent history, particularly with communism.

The new rush of bail-outs, and their associated tighter regulation, pushes us further towards the socialized "command" we thought the world had abandoned in 1989. That is bad – and there is a better way to rapidly re-configure our economies in the right way:

More than ever we need to trust the market. Let interest rates rise (without government interference) and allow the market to kill off those institutions whose functioning depends on limitless supplies of cheap credit.

Yes, there would be pain, but it would right a long list of wrongs. It would make houses affordable for younger working people. It would make saving worthwhile again. It would make borrowing less attractive. It would increase the use of equity in the financing of enterprises, and significantly decrease their use of debt, making all of them much safer in future downturns.

Each of these moves in the right direction are, sadly, the moves which yet another dose of rescue money will now suppress. This won't be understood by our politicians, however, so we will get yet more patched-up bail-outs – and lots more regulation besides.

Did you notice? While the United States, Britain, the Netherlands and Australia were banning short selling on their local stock markets, the Chinese were relaxing restrictions on it. This is enormously telling. Asians – suppressed by the command economy for decades – aspire to a world of free enterprise. Unlike us they are now prepared to accept the costly consequences of those repeated errors which the free enterprise system allows people to make.

When we finally wake up under the yoke of our new, improved and over-sized government regulators, we will have lost the privilege of benefiting from free and highly profitable financial centers. It's the turn of Hong Kong, Mumbai, Shanghai, and Singapore.

Oh well – it was nice while it lasted. And from an avowedly selfish point of view, I think it is almost certain that these tax-funded bail-outs will be good for me personally, because they will be good news for BullionVault .

I believe we will now avoid the pain of a sharp correction. Instead we will get many years of miserable underperformance in shares, bonds and deposits – the classic backdrop to a strong bull market in Gold .

With no bailout, gold would probably rocket even faster than it has this week, and within a few months it would have fully appreciated. That would be time to exit gold and start buying bombed-out productive assets instead.

The speed of such an ascent in Gold Prices would be highly profitable for gold owners (including me), but it would probably prevent BullionVault from aggregating more than a few thousand new customers in total. My personal ambitions for the business would never be met.

Instead, as all this bail-out money seeps in, I anticipate some temporary relief for the stock market, followed by a long, slow, miserable slide in mainstream investment performance, accompanied by a steady rise in the value of Gold Bullion .

Every month, this on-going shift from paper to gold...from debt to hard assets...will cause a few thousand more people to join BullionVault , buying and selling solid gold bullion – safe and secure in their choice of Zurich, London or New York – at ever-higher live market prices.

So – entirely hypocritically – I believe one outcome is required, yet hope for another! Knowing governments won't allow the incautious banks to fail, I can only look forward to helping more investors each day move a portion of their wealth into gold.

By Paul Tustain
Director
BullionVault.com

Gold price chart, no delay | Free Report: 5 Myths of the Gold Market
City correspondent for The Daily Reckoning in London and a regular contributor to MoneyWeek magazine, Adrian Ash is the editor of Gold News and head of research at www.BullionVault.com , giving you direct access to investment gold, vaulted in Zurich , on $3 spreads and 0.8% dealing fees.

(c) BullionVault 2008

Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.

Paul Tustain Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules