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UK Covid-19 Deaths are REAL Extra Deaths, Coronavirus Catastrophe Current State

Politics / Pandemic Apr 24, 2020 - 06:01 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Politics

My last analysis (Are Coronavirus Death Statistics Exaggerated? Worse than Seasonal Flu or Not?) focused on answering the question are Covid-19 real extra deaths or are they people who would have died anyway. The answer to which was expected to be in the weekly total registered death statistics as published by the ONS Where my analysis concluded in a central expectation for the number of total UK deaths registered for the week ending 3rd April to jump by 44%. And for every percentage below then Covid-19 could be deemed to be less significant, but for every percentage above then would deem to be more deadly.


The actual data as published by the ONS showed a shocking 59% jump in the number of weekly deaths as the updated table illustrates.

So there you have it, Covid-19 deaths ARE REAL EXTRA DEATHS of people, most of whom WOULD otherwise be alive today! Furthermore my analysis at the time warned of worse to come for the subsequent week ending 10th of April 2020 projecting to a 69% increase over the 5 year average.

ONS data published on the 21st of April showed a 80% jump in the number of weekly deaths, a trend that would have continued to worsen in subsequent weeks had it not been for the lockdown which is expected to moderate the number of extra deaths over the coming weeks.

So unfortunately the Covid-19 deaths are real extra deaths, which means the lockdown's are necessary because the UK government is incompetent, unable to manage outbreaks in a competent manner as South Korea has which gave advance warning of what was necessary instead we have two clueless morons advising the government at daily press briefings, hopefully they will be held to account for their incompetence..

My trend forecast as of 22nd of March concluded in the UK trending towards 123,000 infected testing positive, and 8,100 deaths by the end of April 2020.

My latest update as of 20th of April has the number infected at 124,743 and the number of deaths at 16,509 against 8,064 forecast that resolves to a shockingly high case fatality rate of 13.2%. Were this trend to persist than the UK would be heading for about 22,000 deaths by the end of April. Meanwhile 125,000 testing positive X15 and X30 translates into herd immunity of between 3% to 6%, so the price paid in lives lost does not amount to much immunity in the general population.

Which just illustrates the degree to which the Boris Johnson's government has been negligent in the handling of Covid-19! So instead of 100 deaths the UK looks set to become Italy 2.0!

Lets hope a future public inquiry does not result in a whitewash of all those in charge who have proven to be criminally negligent! Who sat on their asses until Mid March and then hit the panic button when the deaths started rolling in!

This also brings into the question the competency of all facets of Britain's institutions from the civil service, to the NHS to the city clowncil's.

Imagine if Britain had to go to war? It would be a total disaster ending in obvious defeat because the morons in charge would be so unprepared they would probably run out of bullets on the first day!

So the UK response to the coronavirus has been disastrous, heading for where Italy currently is on 24,000 deaths. This despite advance warning! With the Italian Prime Minister screaming down the telephone to get ready for what was coming our way, instead BJ would joke about shaking hands with covid-19 patients, so not much of a surprise the idiot got infected.

Also what's the point of making forecasts when morons are in charge who repeatedly FAIL to ACT! Even now the morons are making calls around the world hunting for PPE equipment! There needs to be justice for the 16,000 dead and likely many more thousands to come!

The rest of this analysis has first been made available to Patrons who support my work: Is the Stock Market Correct to Ignore The Great Coronavirus Economic Depression?

  • Rabbits in the Headlights
  • Paving the Way for War with China 
  • The Coronavirus Greatest Economic Depression in History?
  • Crude Oil Prices Go NEGATIVE!
  • UK Coronavirus Catastrophe Current State
  • US Coronavirus Catastrophe Current State
  • Stock Market Implications and Forecast

So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

And ensure you are subscribed to my ALWAYS FREE newsletter for my next in-depth analysis.

Your Analyst

Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2020 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


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