Most Popular
1. Dow Max Drawdown Bear Stock Market 2022 - Accumulating Deviations from the Highs - 21st Feb 22
2.Putin Starts WW3 in Ukraine, Will Use Tactical Nuclear Weapons, China Prepares Taiwan Blitzkrieg - 28th Feb 22
3.World War 3 Phase 1 - Putin WINS Ukraine War! - 25th Feb 22
4.INVESTORS SEDUCED by CNBC and the STOCK CHARTS COMPLETELY MISS the BIG PICTURE! - 10th Feb 22
5.Will There Be A 2024 US Presidential Election? - 3rd Mar 22
6.Gold and SIlver, Precious Metals Sector Is at a Terrific Buy Spot - 6th Feb 22
7.Why Putin Wants the WHOLE of Ukraine - World War 3 Untended Consequences - 6th Feb 22
8.Dow Stock Market Expected Max Drawdown 2022 - 19th Feb 22
9.Stock Market Calm In the Eye of the Inflation Storm - 4th Mar 22
10.M = F - Everything is Waving! Stock Market Forward Guidance - 7th Mar 22
Last 7 days
Why APPLE Could CRASH the Stock Market! - 21st May 22
Why Is Crude Oil Ignoring US Inventories? - 21st May 22
Here is Why I’m Still Bullish on Gold Mining Stocks - 21st May 22
THE INFLATION MEGA-TREND QE4EVER! - 20th May 22
US Real Estate Investors – Is There An End In Sight? - 20th May 22
How Technology Affected the Gaming Industry - 20th May 22
How To Set And Achieve Reasonable Goals For Your Company - 20th May 22
How Low Could the Amazon (AMZN) Stock Price Fall? - 19th May 22
Bitten by FANG? Clocked by Cryptos? -- 'Air Pockets' Everywhere - 19th May 22
Northern General Hospital Orthopedics Fractures and and Ankle Clinic Consultations Real Patient Experience - 19th May 22
Cathie Wood Goes All in on Teladoc, ARKK INSANE Noob Investing Strategy! - 17th May 22
This is Anything but Positive for US Housing Market - 17th May 22
What Should We Do If There Is No Fed Monetary Policy Pivot? - 17th May 22
All Possible Ways to Earn Free Litecoin - 17th May 22
How low Could the Amazon Stock Price Fall? - 16th May 22
Cathy Wood ARKK INSANITY There is NO Coming Back! - 16th May 22
NASDAQ 100 Stock Market LOWER LOWS & LOWER HIGH - 16th May 22
Sanctions, trade wars worsen US inflation - 16th May 22
AI Tech Stocks Earnings BloodBath Buying Opportunity - 14th May 22
Futures Contract – Trading Crude Oil With USO - 14th May 22
How to Get Kaspersky Internet Security for 80% Discount! Do not Pay Renewal Price! - 14th May 22
Sagittarius A* Super Massive Black Hole Monster at Centre of Our Galaxy REVEALED! - 14th May 22
UK Public Debt Smoking Inflation Gun - 13th May 22
What Happens When the Stock Market Dip Keeps Dipping? - 13th May 22
Biden Seeks Inflation Scapegoats; Gold Advocate Wins GOP Primary - 13th May 22
Apple and Microsoft Nuts Are About to CRACK and Send Stock Market Sharply Lower - 12th May 22
The War on Gold Ensures the Dollar’s Downfall - 12th May 22

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Stock Market New Short-term Target

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020 Dec 08, 2020 - 12:35 PM GMT

By: Andre_Gratian

Stock-Markets

Current Position of the Market

SPX Long-term trend:  There is some good evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into the first quarter of 2021 before coming to an end.

SPX Intermediate trend:  New intermediate uptrend underway since 2234.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.


Daily market analysis of the short-term trend is reserved for subscribers. If you would like to sign up for a FREE 2-week trial period of daily comments, please let me know at anvi1962@cableone.net

New Short-term Target

Cycles:  Looking ahead!  90-yr cycle – last low: 1932. Next low: 2022

7-yr cycle – last low: 2016.  Next low: 2023

Market Analysis (Charts courtesy of QCharts

SPX-IWM weekly charts

Over the past few weeks, IWM has caught up with SPX by outperforming it.  There were signs this week that it may be slowing down as we approach the next short-term projection.  However, this does not mean that we are anywhere close to a major top.  That could still be 4 to 6 months away!

SPX daily chart

In spite of the negative divergence that was showing in its oscillators last week, SPX has managed to push ahead and make a new all-time high, going against the influence of a cycle that should have produced a short-term top this week.  We know that cycle phases can be disrupted by news which can impact the economy and in this case, the promise of another relief bill which could become law by the end of next week is the cause.  There is some expectation that congress will finally come through with a compromise bill which can satisfy both parties.  This possibility caused the index to only go into a small holding phase after reaching its last target of 3660+, and quickly build another congestion level which would permit it to reach another short-term top; it has also allowed SPX to remain inside its steepest intermediate trend line (blue) which, when it is broken, will mark the onset of the next short-term correction (this will be discussed in more detail in the hourly chart section).

Although the oscillators retain some negative divergence, they have improved their positions, especially the A-Ds oscillator which improved the most.   

SPX hourly chart

Considering how SPX closed on Friday, it is obvious that it intends to move higher unless some negative news occurs over the weekend.  After reaching its 3660+ projection (original target), the index manufactured another level of consolidation which can carry it to 3740 (the maximum amount of uptrend we can extract from the base created by the Point & Figure chart at the 3520 level).  More specifically, the chart formation argued for the move to logically stop at 3660+, but optimism about another relief bill is forcing us to extend the count to include another part of the chart that had been considered too extreme to consider (top green mark on the chart).

Despite the revival of strength in the index, negative divergence has persisted in the CCI, but the leading SRSI has made a new high.

  •  
  • UUP (dollar ETF) ($USD chart not available from this data provider)
  •  
  • UUP has continued to drop beyond the 3-mo cycle low.  This could be the effect of another larger, unknown (to us) cycle.  For the time being, the index may find support on the extension of its former trend line and an expanded channel bottom, but it will have to prove that it is able to hold this level, and stage a rally which may be short-lived; the dollar (91) P&F chart suggests that it is heading for 89, its next downside target. 
  •  
  •  
  • GLD (gold-wkly), GDX (gold miners-dly)
  •  
  • GLD found support on is 50-wk MA and rallied, but will have to comeback to retest its low and build a base before it is able to resume its uptrend.  Gold bulls must be patient!
  •  
  • GDX also had a good bounce back to the 200-dma which it had broken recently.  Some base-building will also be required here before a new uptrend can take hold.  Being able to surmount not only the 200-dma, but its 50-dma will be required before it can resume its long-term uptrend.
  •  
  • SIL (silver-wkly), PAAS (Pan American Silver Corp-dly)
  •  
  • Silver is showing its relative strength to gold by the fact that it found support above its 50-dma.  However, like gold, it will need to build a base before it can challenge its declining intermediate trend line.
  •  
  •  
  • The same reasoning applies to PAAS!
  •  
  •  
  • BNO (U.S. Brent Oil fund)
  •  
  • BNO had a good rally, but it may be close to ending its uptrend. This should be followed by a retracement and consolidation before it is able to continue its move to 14+.
  •  
  • SUMMARY
  •  
  • After reaching its former 3460+ target, SPX created a small congestion shelf as the next launch pad which would permit it to reach 3740 -- if the new proposed relief bill is passed. 

Andre

NOTE: You may now view our new website at https://marketurningpoints.com

FREE TRIAL SUBSCRIPTON

For a FREE 4-week trial, send an email to anvi1962@cableone.net, or go to www.marketurningpoints.com and click on "subscribe". There, you will also find subscription options, payment plans, weekly newsletters, and general information. By clicking on "Free Newsletter" you can get a preview of the latest newsletter which is normally posted on Sunday afternoon (unless it happens to be a 3-day weekend, in which case it could be posted on Monday).

Disclaimer - The above comments about the financial markets are based purely on what I consider to be sound technical analysis principles uncompromised by fundamental considerations. They represent my own opinion and are not meant to be construed as trading or investment advice, but are offered as an analytical point of view which might be of interest to those who follow stock market cycles and technical analysis.

Andre Gratian Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in