Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. TESLA! Cathy Wood ARK Funds Bubble BURSTS! - 12th May 21
2.Stock Market Entering Early Summer Correction Trend Forecast - 10th May 21
3.GOLD GDX, HUI Stocks - Will Paradise Turn into a Dystopia? - 11th May 21
4.Crypto Bubble Bursts! Nicehash Suspends Coinbase Withdrawals, Bitcoin, Ethereum Bear Market Begins - 16th May 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.Cathy Wood Ark Invest Funds Bubble BURSTS! ARKK, ARKG, Tesla Entering Severe Bear Market - 13th May 21
7.Stock Market - Should You Be In Cash Right Now? - 17th May 21
8.Gold to Benefit from Mounting US Debt Pile - 14th May 21
9.Coronavius Covid-19 in Italy in August 2019! - 13th May 21
10.How to Invest in HIGH RISK Tech Stocks for 2021 and Beyond - Part 2 of 2 - 18th May 21
Last 7 days
Overclockers UK Custom Built PC 1 YEAR Use Review Verdict - Does it Still Work? - 16th Oct 21
Altonville Mine Tours Maze at Alton Towers Scarefest 2021 - 16th Oct 21
How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
The Only way to Crush Inflation (not stocks) - 14th Oct 21
Why "Losses Are the Norm" in the Stock Market - 14th Oct 21
Sub Species Castle Maze at Alton Towers Scarefest 2021 - 14th Oct 21
Which Wallet is Best for Storing NFTs? - 14th Oct 21
Ailing UK Pound Has Global Effects - 14th Oct 21
How to Get 6 Years Life Out of Your Overclocked PC System, Optimum GPU, CPU and MB Performance - 13th Oct 21
The Demand Shock of 2022 - 12th Oct 21
4 Reasons Why NFTs Could Be The Future - 12th Oct 21
Crimex Silver: Murder Most Foul - 12th Oct 21
Bitcoin Rockets In Preparation For Liftoff To $100,000 - 12th Oct 21
INTEL Tech Stock to the MOON! INTC 2000 vs 2021 Market Bubble WARNING - 11th Oct 21
AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
Stock Market Wall of Worry Meets NFPs - 11th Oct 21
Stock Market Intermediate Correction Continues - 11th Oct 21
China / US Stock Markets Divergence - 10th Oct 21
Can US Save Taiwan From China? Taiwan Strait Naval Battle - PLA vs 7th Fleet War Game Simulation - 10th Oct 21
Gold Price Outlook: The Inflation Chasm Between Europe and the US - 10th Oct 21
US Real Estate ETFs React To Rising Housing Market Mortgage Interest Rates - 10th Oct 21
US China War over Taiwan Simulation 2021, Invasion Forecast - Who Will Win? - 9th Oct 21
When Will the Fed Taper? - 9th Oct 21
Dancing with Ghouls and Ghosts at Alton Towers Scarefest 2021 - 9th Oct 21
Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
Scan Computers - Custom Build PC 6 Months Later, Reliability, Issues, Quality of Tech Support Review - 8th Oct 21
Gold and Silver: Your Financial Main Battle Tanks - 8th Oct 21
How to handle the “Twin Crises” Evergrande and Debt Ceiling Threatening Stocks - 8th Oct 21
Why a Peak in US Home Prices May Be Approaching - 8th Oct 21
Alton Towers Scarefest is BACK! Post Pandemic Frights Begin, What it's Like to Enter Scarefest 2021 - 8th Oct 21
AJ Bell vs II Interactive Investor - Which Platform is Best for Buying US FAANG Stocks UK Investing - 7th Oct 21
Gold: Evergrande Investors' Savior - 7th Oct 21
Here's What Really Sets Interest Rates (Not Central Banks) - 7th Oct 21
CISCO 2020 Dot com Bubble Stock vs 2021 Bubble Tech Stocks Warning Analysis - 6th Oct 21
Precious Metals Complex Searching for a Bottom - 6th Oct 21
FB, AMZN, NFLX, GOOG, AAPL and FANG+ '5 Waves' Speaks Volumes - 6th Oct 21
Budgies Flying Ability 10 Weeks After wings Clipped, Flight Feathers Cut Grow Back - 6th Oct 21
Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
Will China's Crackdown Send Bitcoin's Price Tumbling? - 5th Oct 21
Natural Gas News: Europe Lacks Supply, So It Turns to Asia - 5th Oct 21
Stock Market Correction: One More Spark to Light the Fire? - 5th Oct 21
Fractal Design Meshify S2, Best PC Case Review, Build Quality, Airflow etc. - 5th Oct 21
Chasing Value with Five More Biotech Stocks for the Long-run - 4th Oct 21
Gold’s Century - While stocks dominated headlines, gold quietly performed - 4th Oct 21
NASDAQ Stock Market Head-n-Shoulders Warns Of Market Weakness – Critical Topping Pattern - 4th Oct 21
US Dollar on plan, attended by the Gold/Silver ratio - 4th Oct 21
Aptorum Group - APM - High RIsk Biotech Stocks Buy, Sell, Hold Investing Analysis for the Long-run - 3rd Oct 21
US Close to Hitting the Debt Ceiling: Gold Doesn’t Care - 3rd Oct 21
Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
Original Oculus VR HeadSet Rift Dev Kit v1 Before Facebook Bought Oculus - 3rd Oct 21
Microsoft Stock Valuation 2021 vs 2000 Bubble - Buy Sell or Hold Invest Analysis - 1st Oct 21
How to profit off the Acquisition spree in Fintech Stocks - 1st Oct 21
�� Halloween 2021 TESCO Shopping Before the Next Big Panic Buying! �� - 1st Oct 2
The Guide to Building a Design Portfolio Online - 1st Oct 21
BioDelivery Sciences International - BDSI - High RIsk Biotech Stocks Buy, Sell, Hold Investing Analysis for the Long-run - 30th Sep 21
America’s Revolving-Door Politics Behind the Fall of US-Sino Ties - 30th Sep 21
Dovish to Hawkish Fed: Sounds Bearish for Gold - 30th Sep 21
Stock Market Gauntlet to the Fed - 30th Sep 21
Should you include ESG investments in your portfolio? - 30th Sep 21
Takeda - TAK - High RIsk Biotech Stocks Buy, Sell, Hold Investing Analysis for the Long-run - 29th Sep 21
Stock Market Wishing Away Inflation - 29th Sep 21
Why Workers Are NOT Returning to Work as Lockdown's End - Wage Slaves Rebellion - 29th Sep 21
UK Fuel PANIC! Fighting at the Petrol Pumps! As Lemmings Create a New Crisis - 29th Sep 21
Gold Could See Tapering as Soon as November! - 29th Sep 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

An Honest Look at Gold’s Chartolgy

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021 Mar 11, 2021 - 03:33 PM GMT

By: Rambus_Chartology

Commodities

As you well know the PM complex has been trading at a very important inflection point for the last month or so looking for the next important move either up or down. I can make a case today for either direction but the Chartology is strongly suggesting the next important move is going to be to the downside. In the very short term, days to maybe a week or so we could see some backtesting to many important necklines that have already given way.

Lets start with a few important moving averages that in the past gave us our first warning that things could start to get a little rough. These aren’t big deals in and of themselves but they do throw up a little red flag that says, pay attention.

During the bull market years I used a ribbon of 4 different moving averages that when they became all properly aligned to the upside they told us that gold was very strong. The 300 day sma was the most important moving average for the long term health of gold. Throughout the bull market that began in 2000 until the high in 2011 the only time the 300 day sma was violated was during the 2008 crash.


Up until last week the ribbon of 4 moving averages had gotten proper aligned just before the H&S bottom neckline was broken to the upside in 2019. As you can see the 300 day sma held support in the spring of 2020 and saved the day for gold. Again, it is not the end of the world but Gold has now traded below its 300 day sma for 7 days in a row now which is allowing the shorter term green 50 day sma to start rolling over along with the red 150 day sma. In a strong bull market it is never a good thing to see these important moving averages rollover especially the longer term moving averages.

Below is a weekly chart for gold which shows just the 10 and 50 week moving averages without the price of gold. Normally when these 2 moving averages become properly aligned they can keep a buy signal going for years at a time. Normally when you see these two moving averages start crossing back and forth it tells you gold is either building out a reversal pattern or a consolidation pattern. The last buy signal was given back in January of 2019, last green circle. Last week the 10 week closed below the 50 week giving its first   sell signal in a little over 2 years, red circle.

Another important sign that gold may be in trouble is the ratio combo chart we looked at a couple of weeks ago that has the GOLD:UDN ratio on top with gold on the bottom. During a strong bull market these 2 generally move up together, sometimes with the GOLD:UDN ratio which means gold in most of the important currencies of the world leading the way and sometimes gold in US dollar having its turn. If you recall we were looking at the potential H&S top on the GOLD:UDN ratio which has come to fruition. Again, this is not what you want to see during a bull market.

Below is a daily combo chart which has the GOLD:UDN ratio on top with gold on the bottom for a closeup view of the H&S tops on the ratio combo chart above. Since they both have had a backtest shortly after breaking out below their neckline is it possible we will get a 2nd backtest or has the impulse move down already begun in earnest?

This stand alone chart for gold shows the H&S top price objective down to the 1475 area.

Looking at the long term bull market for gold this 25 year monthly chart shows its secular bull market uptrend channel. This month is far from over yet but gold is starting to trade below its all important 20 month ema which it never broke during the bull market years as shown on the left side of the chart except for the 2008 crash.

The daily chart above showed us a price objective down to the 1475 area which would coincide with the bottom rail of the secular bull market. A move to the bottom trendline wouldn’t be any fun but it wouldn’t hurt the bull market either. Please take a second and study the blue consolidation patterns that formed during the 2000 to 2011 bull market and compare those consolidation patterns to the price action from the all time high made back in August of 2020. Our current trading range is still very small in regards to the size of the bull market. Perspective is everything.

This next chart is a long term weekly look at GLD that I haven’t shown you before. I know you are going to think I’ve lost my mind with this chart but from a Chartology perspective it makes perfect sense now that we are getting more information to work with. We’ve discussed many times in the past how you can find important reversal patterns at the reversal points in big consolidation patterns. The H&S top that we looked at earlier on the daily chart is the same H&S top at reversal point #3.

GLD should have caught support on top of the 2012 blue rectangle around the 183 area but it didn’t hold. GLD then should have found support above the 30 week ema which has now turned down. The next area of support will be at the bottom rail of the 2012 rectangle around the 147 area. There is no law that says GLD has to trade all the way down to the bottom rail of what I’m calling a bullish rising wedge which would end up being a much bigger 2011 bullish rising wedge consolidation pattern in the secular bull market. If that is going to be the case then we have to put in the all important 4th reversal points which I’m showing as a red four. Keep in mind we have a H&S top reversal pattern in place that has reversed the 2018 impulse move from up to down. The odds are high we will see some type of reversal pattern form when this impulse move to the downside completes.

Know that I take no joy in trying to show you an honest view of Chartology. I have to keep things real no matter what the cost. This is just part 1 with 2 more parts to go before I make my case for a bigger consolidation phase we have been in since August of 2020. I will have Part 2 tomorrow night on the PM stock indexes.

All the best

By Rambus Chartology

https://rambus1.com

FREE TRIAL - http://rambus1.com/?page_id=10

© 2021 Copyright Rambus- All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Rambus Chartology Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in