Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
Ravencoin RVN About to EXPLODE to NEW HIGHS! Last Chance to Buy Before it goes to the MOON! - 21st Oct 21
Stock Market Animal Spirits Returning - 21st Oct 21
Inflation Advances, and So Does Gold — Except That It Doesn’t - 21st Oct 21
Why A.I. Is About To Trigger The Next Great Medical Breakthrough - 21st Oct 21
Gold Price Slowly Going Nowhere - 20th Oct 21
Shocking Numbers Show Government Crowding Out Real Economy - 20th Oct 21
Crude Oil Is in the Fast Lane, But Where Is It Going? - 20th Oct 21
3 Tech Stocks That Could Change The World - 20th Oct 21
Best AI Tech Stocks ETF and Investment Trusts - 19th Oct 21
Gold Mining Stocks: Will Investors Dump the Laggards? - 19th Oct 21
The Most Exciting Medical Breakthrough Of The Decade? - 19th Oct 21
Prices Rising as New Dangers Point to Hard Assets - 19th Oct 21
It’s not just Copper; GYX indicated cyclical the whole time - 19th Oct 21
Chinese Tech Stocks CCP Paranoia, VIES - Variable Interest Entities - 19th Oct 21
Inflation Peaked Again, Right? - 19th Oct 21
Gold Stocks Bouncing Hard - 19th Oct 21
Stock Market New Intermediate Bottom Forming? - 19th Oct 21
Beware, Gold Bulls — That’s the Beginning of the End - 18th Oct 21
Gold Price Flag Suggests A Big Rally May Start Soon - 18th Oct 21
Inflation Or Deflation – End Result Is Still Depression - 18th Oct 21
A.I. Breakthrough Could Disrupt the $11 Trillion Medical Sector - 18th Oct 21
US Economy and Stock Market Addicted to Deficit Spending - 17th Oct 21
The Gold Price And Inflation - 17th Oct 21
Went Long the Crude Oil? Beware of the Headwinds Ahead… - 17th Oct 21
Watch These Next-gen Cloud Computing Stocks - 17th Oct 21
Overclockers UK Custom Built PC 1 YEAR Use Review Verdict - Does it Still Work? - 16th Oct 21
Altonville Mine Tours Maze at Alton Towers Scarefest 2021 - 16th Oct 21
How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
The Only way to Crush Inflation (not stocks) - 14th Oct 21
Why "Losses Are the Norm" in the Stock Market - 14th Oct 21
Sub Species Castle Maze at Alton Towers Scarefest 2021 - 14th Oct 21
Which Wallet is Best for Storing NFTs? - 14th Oct 21
Ailing UK Pound Has Global Effects - 14th Oct 21
How to Get 6 Years Life Out of Your Overclocked PC System, Optimum GPU, CPU and MB Performance - 13th Oct 21
The Demand Shock of 2022 - 12th Oct 21
4 Reasons Why NFTs Could Be The Future - 12th Oct 21
Crimex Silver: Murder Most Foul - 12th Oct 21
Bitcoin Rockets In Preparation For Liftoff To $100,000 - 12th Oct 21
INTEL Tech Stock to the MOON! INTC 2000 vs 2021 Market Bubble WARNING - 11th Oct 21
AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
Stock Market Wall of Worry Meets NFPs - 11th Oct 21
Stock Market Intermediate Correction Continues - 11th Oct 21
China / US Stock Markets Divergence - 10th Oct 21
Can US Save Taiwan From China? Taiwan Strait Naval Battle - PLA vs 7th Fleet War Game Simulation - 10th Oct 21
Gold Price Outlook: The Inflation Chasm Between Europe and the US - 10th Oct 21
US Real Estate ETFs React To Rising Housing Market Mortgage Interest Rates - 10th Oct 21
US China War over Taiwan Simulation 2021, Invasion Forecast - Who Will Win? - 9th Oct 21
When Will the Fed Taper? - 9th Oct 21
Dancing with Ghouls and Ghosts at Alton Towers Scarefest 2021 - 9th Oct 21
Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
Scan Computers - Custom Build PC 6 Months Later, Reliability, Issues, Quality of Tech Support Review - 8th Oct 21
Gold and Silver: Your Financial Main Battle Tanks - 8th Oct 21
How to handle the “Twin Crises” Evergrande and Debt Ceiling Threatening Stocks - 8th Oct 21
Why a Peak in US Home Prices May Be Approaching - 8th Oct 21
Alton Towers Scarefest is BACK! Post Pandemic Frights Begin, What it's Like to Enter Scarefest 2021 - 8th Oct 21
AJ Bell vs II Interactive Investor - Which Platform is Best for Buying US FAANG Stocks UK Investing - 7th Oct 21
Gold: Evergrande Investors' Savior - 7th Oct 21
Here's What Really Sets Interest Rates (Not Central Banks) - 7th Oct 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment

Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021 Sep 22, 2021 - 03:42 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Stock-Markets

Dear Reader

My last analysis posted on the 1st of September proved to be a timely reminder that an historically overbought stock market on virtually every measure was entering into the seasonally worst trading month of the year that at the very least suggests to prepare for a significant correction with each passing day and there was even a possibility of market panic event, a CRASH for which there are countless indicators that I have been covering since Mid June such as what is taking place in the Reverse Repo market of a defacto brewing Financial Crisis 2.0, the magnitude of which we will only realise with the benefit of hindsight, hence why I sold out of 80% of my Top AI stocks during the summer months with the last being to exit IBM leaving my AI stocks portfolio in it's current state, devoid for the first time in many years of the likes of Microsoft Apple, Nvidia and Amazon, with holdings of Google and Facebook greatly reduced.


Though at the time and since I have iterated my intentions to buy back some of the less over valued stocks during the second half of October as the probable conclusion of a market correction, which remains my objective regardless of whether the correction materialises or not that this analysis seeks to clarify the magnitude of as the stock market tumbles from near it's all time high the deeper we move into September with my primary focus being on mapping out a trend into the end of this year, that is now accompanied by a secondary projection deep into 2022.

Contents:

  • Stock Market Forecast 2021 Review
  • Stock Market AI mega-trend Big Picture
  • US Economy and Stock Market Addicted to Deficit Spending
  • US Economy Has Been in an Economic Depression Since 2008
  • Inflation and the Crazy Crypto Markets
  • Inflation Consequences for the Stock Market
  • FED Balance Sheet
  • Weakening Stock Market Breadth
  • Why Most Stocks May Go Nowhere for the Next 10 Years!
  • FANG Stocks
  • Margin Debt
  • Dow Short-term Trend Analysis
  • Dow Annual Percent Change
  • Dow Long-term Trend Analysis
  • ELLIOTT WAVES Analysis
  • Stocks and 10 Year Bond Yields
  • SEASONAL ANALYSIS
  • Short-term Seasonal Trend
  • US Presidential Cycle 
  • Best Time of Year to Invest in Stocks
  • 2021 - 2022 Seasonal Investing Pattern
  • Formulating a Stock Market Trend Forecast
  • Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Sept 2021 to May 2022 Conclusion
  • Investing fundamentals
  • IBM Continuing to Revolutionise Computing
  • AI Stocks Portfolio Current State
  • My Late October Stocks Buying Plan
  • HIGH RISK STOCKS - Invest and Forget!
  • Afghanistan The Next Chinese Province, Australia Living on Borrowed Time
  • CHINA! CHINA! CHINA!
  • Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment
  • Aukus Ruckus

Stock Market Forecast 2021 Review - Firstly a review of my forecast for 2021 as of the 9th of Feb.

9th Feb 2021 - Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2021

Dow Stock Market 2021 Outlook Forecast Conclusion

Therefore my forecast conclusion is for the Dow to target a trend to between 34,500 and 35,000 by the end of 2021 for a gain of 13.5% to 15.2% on the year that should be punctuated by at least one significant correction starting early May 2021.

The updated graph shows that whilst the stock market did begin a correction early May and continued into Mid June, however in terms of price was nowhere to the expected extent and thus was one of the primary reasons why I took it as an opportunity to SELL into the highs. So whilst we are likely to get another run higher into the end of the year, that run higher should be coming off a significant correction during Sept / Oct.

Stock Market AI mega-trend Big Picture

Just pause for a moment and take in the chart below, the message one should be receiving loud and clear is that I expect this bull market to run for many more years, whilst my best guess a year ago was that it would top in early 2027, as long as run away valuations moderate during 2022 then I don't see why this should still not remain as the big picture, thus the bull market could extend to 18 years from it's March 2009 low!

12th June 2020 - Machine Intelligence Quantum AI Stocks Mega-Trend Forecast 2020 to 2035!

Therefore the following graph illustrates my road map forecast conclusion of how I expect the AI mega-trend to play out over the next 15 years and why I will continue the mantra of buy the dips and panics all the way towards liquidating holdings during the next mania peak when valuations go out the window and when I will likely heavily short these same stocks all the way down towards the buying opportunity of the 2030's.

I continue to see an inevitable War with China being the primary driver for turning a Quantum AI stocks bubble mania crash into a true multi year bear market. So I will be including the current state of that key megatrend and in part it has me regretting my recent purchases of chinese stocks, not because I don't think they will be profitable but that making such investments is in part financing the CCP, which is a bit like investing in the third reich during 1931, profitable to do yes, but......

For more on the War with China Mega-trend see my in-depth analysis that mapped out the trend trajectory for the next 10 years-

The Trump Reset - 2 The Putin Doctrine

Thus my primary strategy remains to buy deviations form the high in good / fairly valued AI stocks i.e. presently most stocks are running well ahead of schedule in terms of the mega-trend for on average X6 by early 2027. For instance Google at it's current mania pace will X26 by early 2027 and trade on a market cap of $50 trillion dollars! There's going to be a significant pause in this bull market sooner rather or later to check this runaway train else it will end in a train wreck.

Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment

Meanwhile Financial Crisis 2.0 continues to unfold where China's giant property developer Evergrande is the canary in the coal mine, tip of the ice-berg, China's Lehman's moment that looks set to default on $300 billion of debts. Here's what the giant property developers stock price looks like.

I don't have the time to go deep into china's debt crisis right now, just that it illustrates the fraud that is China's corporate accounting, why one should NOT get carried away with investing in Chinese stocks as I often repeat and hopefully people are taking notice of! Look at the chart, all those poor fools who bought at presumably a 50% discount during the Summer months when many fools where touting the stock as 'cheap' have now all been wiped out! There is no coming back from a 92% loss!

The facts are this that they are a lot worse than that which is known hence we will only know the true magnitude of China's financial crisis / property crash with the benefit of hindsight so start by discounting the worst possible case which is a Lehman's style collapse as the chinese dominos start to fall.

Given China's immature society i.e. lack of accountability then this could be the trigger for much civil unrest across China as the facts become known that the China Clown Party's dictats were the trigger for the collapse.

And here's a video version I posted on this topic -


Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment, Tip of the Ice Berg in Financial Crisis 2.0

This article is an excerpt from my most recent extensive analysis that maps out the stock markets trend into Mid 2022 which was first made available to Patrons who support my work - Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Dow Trend Forecast Sept 2021 to May 2022

Contents:

  • Stock Market Forecast 2021 Review
  • Stock Market AI mega-trend Big Picture
  • US Economy and Stock Market Addicted to Deficit Spending
  • US Economy Has Been in an Economic Depression Since 2008
  • Inflation and the Crazy Crypto Markets
  • Inflation Consequences for the Stock Market
  • FED Balance Sheet
  • Weakening Stock Market Breadth
  • Why Most Stocks May Go Nowhere for the Next 10 Years!
  • FANG Stocks
  • Margin Debt
  • Dow Short-term Trend Analysis
  • Dow Annual Percent Change
  • Dow Long-term Trend Analysis
  • ELLIOTT WAVES Analysis
  • Stocks and 10 Year Bond Yields
  • SEASONAL ANALYSIS
  • Short-term Seasonal Trend
  • US Presidential Cycle 
  • Best Time of Year to Invest in Stocks
  • 2021 - 2022 Seasonal Investing Pattern
  • Formulating a Stock Market Trend Forecast
  • Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Sept 2021 to May 2022 Conclusion
  • Investing fundamentals
  • IBM Continuing to Revolutionise Computing
  • AI Stocks Portfolio Current State
  • My Late October Stocks Buying Plan
  • HIGH RISK STOCKS - Invest and Forget!
  • Afghanistan The Next Chinese Province, Australia Living on Borrowed Time
  • CHINA! CHINA! CHINA!
  • Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment
  • Aukus Ruckus

So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month that is soon set to increase to $4 per month for new Patrons, so a short window of opportunity exists to lock in at $3 per month now before the price hike. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

Including access to my recent extensive analysis updating AI stocks buying levels as we head towards the window for a significant correction even a possible stock market crash.

Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season, Chinese Stocks and Bitcoin Trend Update

  • FOMO Fumes on Negative Earnings
  • Cathy Woods ARK Funds Performance Year to Date - Chinese Stocks Big Mistake
  • INTEL The Two Steps Forward One Step Back Corporation
  • AMD Ryzen 3D
  • New Potential Addition to my AI Stocks Portfolio
  • Why is Netflix a FAANG Stock?
  • Stock Market CRASH / Correction
  • How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market?
  • Chinese Tech Stocks CCP Paranoia
  • VIES - Variable Interest Entities
  • CCP Paranoid
  • Best AI Tech Stocks ETF?
  • Best UK Investment Trust
  • AI Stocks Buying Pressure Evaluation
  • AI Stocks Portfolio Current State
  • AI Stocks Portfolio KEY
  • What to Buy Today?
  • INVEST AND FORGET HIGH RISK STOCKS!
  • High Risk Stocks KEY
  • Bitcoin Trend Forecast Current State
  • Crypto Bear Market Accumulation Current State
  • Crazy Crypto Exchanges - How to Buy Bitcoin for $42k, Sell for $59k when trading at $47k!

My analysis schedule includes:

  • Silver Price Trend Analysis, AI Stocks Portfolio Update - 30% Done
  • China House Prices CRASH! War with China Mega-trend Defence Stocks
  • How to Get Rich! - 90% done - This is a good 6 month work in progress nearing completion.

  • UK House Prices Trend Analysis, including an update for the US and a quick look at Canada - 15% done
  • US Dollar and British Pound analysis
  • Gold Price Trend Analysis - 10%

Your de-risked along the highs analyst.

Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2021 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 35 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in