A patron commented - Interesting take on inflation: the US Treasury I-bonds (which one can invest $10k each year) will pay an annualized interest from November 1, 2022, through April 2023 of 6.89%, down from the 9.62% rate offered since May 2022. Probably an indicator that the inflation stats that are forthcoming will show we’ve peaked. https://treasurydirect.gov/savings-bonds/i-bonds/i-bonds-interest-rates/

My reply - Yes that's a bit weird. how is November ibond 6.48% when it's supposed to be based on CPILIE, implies CPILIE for November will be 6.5%? What am I missing? Last reported CPI was 8.2%.

Actually looking at the rate it's now 6.89%. so looks like the 6.48% was an estimate. Still 6.89% is 2.31% LESS than CPI. According to the consensus CPI for October is forecast to be 8% vs 8.2%., so we could be finally in for a bullish CPI surprise.

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Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

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