Tesla - TSLA Discounting the Future - Stock Price Analysis Forecast 2023

Companies / Auto Sector Jan 14, 2023 - 12:11 AM GMT

Ai Stocks Portfolio

A quick look at the current state of my portfolio which is now 88.5% invested after arrival of approx 5% of fresh cash and after I sold all of my NBIX holding given that it earlier retreated from a multi year high, and that it tends to trade within a range of $125 to $76. I have update the table to indicate when columns were last updated. I have also replaced the beta column with something more useful called Future Growth (1-10), which is basically how I see the COMPANY doing in terms of future growth potential where 10 is the highest and 1 is the lowest, note this does not mean that the stock prices will match growth potential due to a myriad of factors such as sentiment, valuation and politics, but it gives insight into the underlying prospects for the businesses where the two stocks that score 10 are AMD and TSMC which is why I am heavily invested in both and don't fret about stock price drops in either as recently experienced because the underlying businesses have huge long-term future growth potential. Stocks that score 9 are Nvidia, Facebook, ASML and IBM, which again means I am not too phased by what we recently witnessed with the likes of META and and Nvidia, stock prices rarely reflect the actual state of the underlying business as they oscillate between extreme fear and extreme FOMO as illustrated when one watches the Cartoon Network (CNBC).

Table Big Image - https://www.marketoracle.co.uk/images/2022/Nov/AI-stocks-portfolio-25th.jpg

TESLA (TSLA) $170 - EGF +20% / +82%, PE 46

DISCOUNTING THE FUTURE!

What's Tesla all about? Self Driving Cars? Batteries? Electricity Generation, Storage and Transportation?

Above all Tesla is an AI company, Tesla's four wheel robots will soon morph into bipedal general purpose androids as all of the jigsaw pieces are slotting into place. All of the tech giants will be marketing their own robot's but Tesla has first mover advantage in this soon to be emerging huge market for slave labour.

I held off buying ANY Tesla stock due to the extreme over valuation that carried the risk of a deep draw down, where I have often voiced that we could see the stock price trade to below $130, hence anything anyone buys needs to allow for such a draw down. Recently the Tesla nut finally cracked and the stock price has subsequently tumbled to well below $200 as it eyes sub $130.

Tesla at $170 trades on PE of 46, EGF +20% and +82% so has come a long way down and finally is trading at a valuation vs future growth that allows for significant exposure regardless of the risks for a temporary draw down as we mark time for earnings to play catchup. I quickly accumulated 82% from zero during the recent sell off and I will continue to accumulate at fresh bear market lows. In terms of trend, Tesla is probably entering a year long wide trading range of between $300 to $150.

This article is an excerpt form my recent analysis on the current state of the embryonic stocks bull market Stocks Analysis Bonanza - GOOG, QCOM, ASML, TCHEY, BABA, BIDU, TSLA, WDC, RBLX, MGNI, COIN, BITCOIN CAPITULATION! that was was first made available to patrons who support my work.So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $4 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat. Lock it in now as $4 per month as this rises to $5 per month in th new year.

Also access to my extensive analysis that concludes in detailed stock market trend forecast into the end of 2023 Stocks Bear Market Max PAIN - Trend Forecast Analysis to Dec 2023 - Part1

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By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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