Stock Market SP500 Trend Expectations
Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023 Nov 08, 2023 - 10:36 PM GMTBy: Nadeem_Walayat
The S&P is complying with trend forecast expectations that saw Friday's Quad Witching day end down 1.22% at 4450, where some hours before the open I commented -
"It's QUAD Witching DAY. There is a 90% probability for a STRONG DOWN DAY! Which given where the likes of Apple are perched just above support should act as a catalyst for the the sell off into October."
Whilst apparently someone called Cem Karson was eager to convince folks that a correction was 'almost impossible!'
The S&P continues to target sub 4200 by Mid October after having generated a kink in the MACD indicator.
And as per October 2022 analysis - .
Stock Market Analysis and Trend Forecast Oct 2022 to Dec 2023
S&P targets a trend to 4600 by Mid Summer 2023 before correcting to below 4100 by late October.
Since which several stock nuts have cracked most notable of which are ASML, KLAC, LRCX, AMD, AMAT...
Though the biggest nut of all Apple at $175 remains pending a break below $174 to target sub $160 which would deliver the S&P trend to sub 4200 with my central target of 4150. I plan to do most of my buying in the $160-$145 range.
Meanwhile there are some AI stocks such as Google that remain strong with no sign of any reversal which is why I have repeatedly warned not to get carried away with trimming Google. It's amazing to think that the MSM nothing burgers were busy convincing the retail crowd that Google at sub $90 was FINISHED due to Chat GPT killing search. Well six months on Google is near 60% higher! Whilst no longer cheap, nevertheless the metrics are strong i.e. EGF's and its fundamentals score. It is NOT easy to buy a stock when it is cheap, people want assurances that largely only be known with the benefit of hindsight and thus all one has is ones experience, metrics and rules that tell you what to do if one is able to tune out MSM and the BlogosFear, just look at the chart the cheaper Google got the less folks wanted to buy and even considered selling, go back and read the comments at the time.
At best GOOG could trade to sub $130 to target $120, but there is no sign of that happening yet.
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S&P
Targeting 4600 Mid Summer 2023 Top followed by correction to below 4150 into October 2023.
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Your trimmed the FOMO to buy the Dip analyst.
By Nadeem Walayat
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Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.
Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk
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