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US Housing Market Analysis - Immigration Drives House Prices Higher

Housing-Market / US Housing Sep 30, 2024 - 06:21 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Dear Reader

This article is part 2 of 3 of my extensive analysis US Housing Market Analysis, House Prices Trend Forecast 2024 to 2026 that was first made available to patrons who support my work. So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $7 per month, lock it in now at $7 before next rises to $10 per month for new sign-ups. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

US Housing Market Analysis and House Prices Trend Forecast 2024 to 2026

CONTENTS

Stock Market Trend Forecast
US Stock Market vs M2 Money Supply
AI Stocks Portfolio
Nvidia 10 for 1 Stock Split
AI Computers Hype
2024 - AI Equals Loss of Agency
Why Alien Intelligence Cannot Predict the Future
Consequences of AI
UBI - Universal Billionaire Income
GLOBAL WARMING Housing Market Consequences Right Now
RECESSION When Yield Curve Uninverts
Global Debt Bubble.
IMMIGRATION DRIVES HOUSE PRICES HIGHER
US Housing Market Free Equity
US FIXED MORTGAGES LIMITING SUPPLY
HOA Nightmare
Florida Hurricanes
Rentals Crisis
Who is Buying All the Houses?
Commercial Property Capitulation
US House Prices Momentum
US House Prices Trend Forecast
US Housing Market Stocks
UK General Election - 4th July 2024

But first It's your lucky day, you get access to my latest market brief made available to patrons 30th September.

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Stock Market Brief - 30th Sept 2024 - 5am UK Time

S&P FOMO's to new all time high which is against the seasonal trend for a down Sept, which is good in that it is the focus of my next analysis that allows one to determine what follows an UP Sept and it's derivatives for what it means for not just the next few months but for the whole of 2925. Preliminary analysis suggests to expect a strong Q4 and a bullish 2025 which will be the third full year of the stocks bull market, yes that's right those FOMO buying to push the S&P to a new all time high are TWO YEARS LATE TO THE PARTY! The true smart money was FOMO catching those falling knives into the October 2022 lows as I stated at the time your best buys will be your most painful to do!

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/images/2022/Sep/Dow-short-term-trend-analysis-3-10.jpg

However, most target AI tech stocks remain firmly within the correction window, i.e. Nvidia, Google, AMD, whilst those that were expected to buck the trend are flying high i.e. Tesla, still the unexpected rally has afforded an opportunity to trim stocks such as Paypal, Arrow, Micron, JBL, TSM, WDC, DOCU, META, AMZN and so on. Even the chinese stocks chose to FOMO on the back of PBOC money printing allowing one to start trimming TCEHY and BABA as they are only just starting their bull markets, i.e. BABA targets $120 and then $136 and then all the way to $200+

Bitcoin continues to check off the to do list by trading above $63.5k, and then $65k, all whilst from within the correction window and to think barely 3 weeks ago some Patrons were in total despair at BTC $54k, my response was BTC has a destiny with $100k+ probably before year end, so once the correction window ends we should see BTC blasting off to a new all time high and trend towards $100k+ Whilst MSTR X2's what bitcorn does! Already up 50% from it's recent low, my long standing $250 target looks set to be EASILY exceeded, $300 looks doable by $100k.

And lastly the Fourth Reich is using US election weakness as cover to go on the rampage now in Lebanon, murdering thousands more of what the 'master race' see as non human all whilst playing the perpetual victim. Goebbels would be proud of Zionwood propaganda. It is what it is, the tail that wags the dog, All whilst President Biden tries to remember who he is.

Bottom line despite a S&P new high we remain in the correction window going into at least Mid October so we should soon see a third opp to accumulate target stocks during the Mid July to Mid October correction window where for the S&P 5500 looks doable.

Next article ETA before Tuesdays open.

GLOBAL WARMING Housing Market Consequences Right Now

- INSURANCE CANCELLATIONS!

In the US and elsewhere more so than the UK home owners are getting their home insurance cancelled!

In the UK we have a major issue with car insurance, the premiums are going up by many multiples, some cars are no longer insurable i.e. Higher end landrover's in London.

My own insurance went up 70% on my 2016 Land Rover Disco Sport. I would have done a video on it but everyone's getting hit no matter the car or driver.

This is a harbinger of much worse to come! Where most will not be to afford to get home insurance.

What to do? You need to insure yourself!

I.e. a pot of money to fix what the insurance would have covered. Most of us do that anyway i.e. fix the problem then claim on the insurance because they will only hike the premium if one claims.

Understand that Global warming is a significant driver of INFLATION!

THIS IS HOW GLOBAL WARMING MANIFESTING IT'S CONSQUENCES RIGHT NOW!

A lot more folk are gong to get dropped and premiums are going to keep rocketing higher.

What does this mean?

It means you should NOT invest in insurance companies! They are ALL going to go out of business!

One needs to build an insurance pot of say 10% of the asset one was seeking to insure.

Of course it's not all the insurers fault because after climate change there are the ambulance chaser lawyers, everyone gets a phone call, email or text asking if you have been in an accident during the past 3 years, even if I had been I would never involve these vultures.

One would have thought the dash cams would have put the crash for cash out of business but no, there are those who seek to fiddle their insurance which ramps up premiums for all, and contributes to the tipping point.

So just as in my recent article the earths atmosphere has a tipping point so does the insurance business, most insurers are going to go out of business due to a myriad of contributing factors which like co2 on it's own is a minor but lump them all together sparks a catastrophic trend which is what we are witnessing in the insurance industry,

And all those WIth insurance you have to be aware that the insurance that you are paying over the top for may turn out to be worthless when you actually get around to making a claim!

Why? because the insurer may turn around and deem the issue to be preexisting i.e. BEFORE you took out insurance ! So don't make the mistake of taking out expensive insurance because it may not be covered when it comes to make a claim!

I've cut my insurance to the bone, i.e. some 12 years ago they wanted about £1200 a year! Forget that I cut it to the bone, no contents cover just the building, the minimum! And currently pay £600 a year! Still a lot because it is probably worthless as we won't know until one claims but had I gone with what they were quoting for the full shebang I would probably be forking out £2,500 a year now ! What a con! Home Insurance is a SCAM which won't be revealed until it's time to claim.

So you cannot rely on home insurance you have to build your own insurance pot say at 10% of the value of your home so that you can cover most eventualities and hey if a full blown disaster strikes then one has some minimal insurance that covers the whole property short of which your 10% pot covers you for anything less than a total loss, that and you can of course make it grow as part of your stocks portfolio, so effectively you will have insured yourself for free!

Bottom line when the chips are down your insurance won't be worth the paper it is written on. Also stick with your existing insurer as the worse thing you can do is shop around at renewal because if you ever claim they will play pass the parcel game by saying whatever is wrong is preexisting.

Home Insurance is a bit like believing in a fairy god mother. It's probably going to be a pain in the butt to actualise when it comes to make any claim. So if you are prepared for that you won't find yourself in a disastrous situation.

Do read my how to get rich guides which are aimed towards making one more robust in a fragile world, where no matter what gets thrown in ones direction it will be like water off a ducks back!

The bottom line is that we will have waves of inflation for the whole of this decade as I pointed out over 4 years ago when the central banks pressed the print money button in response to the plandemic.

RECESSION When Yield Curve Uninverts

A good reliable signaler for a recession and the next bear market will be when the yield curve uninverts. Whilst nothing is a done deal, however this signal is 90% reliable so on such a signal it would be wise to at least reduce exposure to over valued stocks heading towards uninversion. .Whilst also being prepared to ride out whatever a potential bear market delivers in better valued stocks where the risk is one of the recession changing the metrics as companies MISS earnings and thus become more expensive as their stock prices fall. That is the risk of investing in the stock market, a balancing act of mainlining exposure whilst riding temporary dips as one is acting without the benefit of hindsight.

The current state of the yield curve that so many obsess over is that the inversion is ranging between -0.6% and -1.5%, currently at -1.1%. So there is no sign for a recession this year let a lone the shrill cries for an imminent recession as these MSM headlines illustrate -

|Now you understand why so many investors have trillions parked in money market accounts because of MSM fools! These clowns don't even understand that a recession already happened in 2022!

Global Debt Bubble

The global debt bubble that just keeps on inflating. And what does all this debt do? Debase currency and Inflate asset prices.

As mentioned earlier Government debt refinancing is driving liquidity.

IMMIGRATION DRIVES HOUSE PRICES HIGHER

All those who want house prices to go up should be bending over backwards to encourage immigration because those western nations with little immigration are literally DYING. One only needs to look at Asia.

Japan, immigrant population 2.3% - Fertility rate 1.2 - DYING - Population falling at the rate of near 1 million per year!

South Korea - 4.3% immigrant population - Fertility rate 1.11 - DYING - Second lowest birth rate amongst western nations.

Taiwan - 6% immigrant population - Fertility rate 1.1 - Population stable due to immigration mostly from China .

China - 0.07% immigrant population - Fertility rate 1.16 - DYING - No one wants to migrate to China!

What's the consequences of a falling population?

Your house will become worthless over time. That's right not worth LESS but WORTHLESS!

In Japan you can buy a home for as little as $1000, why? because no one wants to live in a decrepit Japanese town where the only jobs are in the care sector to look after the growing elderly population. And then one has to contend with Japans Xenophobia, hence Japan will DIE, soon see it's population fall by over 1 million a year to be littered with ghost towns and eventually cities.

The Robots are coming to enrich the elites but they won't enrich the masses or push up house prices! In fact the exact opposite is true a robot workforce will act as a DRAG on house prices but not for the rich! They will get wealthier and continue to own everything worth owning.

The prerequisite for rising house prices is a RISING population and for that to happen a nation needs a fertility rate of at least 2.1 which is known as the replacement rate anything less than that will result in a falling population that requires fresh blood (immigrants) to bridge the gap, and given the structure of modern societies being ANTI-FAMILY, i.e. the cost of bringing children up in today's age is far higher than it was even in the recent past, then virtually every nation has a falling birth rate and thus the only way to grow a population is by means of immigration, else your nation will die! Worse still the able bodied young are not going to sit around to waste the best years of their lives looking after old farts in the care sector, instead they will be off migrating abroad to live out their dreams elsewhere..

I have already covered this many times before that if you want persistent house prices inflation then one needs a rising population without which you don't just get deflation but that your property may become as good worthless, unable to be sold as is the case right across modern Japan, that's what Xenophobia delivers! YOU and your country will DIE!

Japan will panic and encourage immigration by encouraging workers from the regional developing nations into their care sector, but the smart immigrants don't want to go and work in a dying nation with little future, they want to go to where the future looks brightest, the likes of the US and Britain, Australia, Canada and New Zealand. Whilst nations such as Japan will pay the price as they become irrelevant on the world stage, it's amazing not so long ago the West Feared the RISE OF Japan, just as today many fear the rise of China, well today no one pays a second thought to Japan being any sort of economic threat, a global player, and the same will soon become true of China.

Nevertheless if you want to to take a gamble on a depressed housing market and prepared to go and live in Japan for at least part of the year so you understand the lay of the land then after much research there could be an opportunity to pick up a property dirt cheap, at a fraction of what similar would cost in the UK and US, but again you will have to actually go and live there to understand what has prospects for recovery and what has no prospects, i.e. you don't want to purchase a cheap property online only to later find out it's not far from the Fukushima nuclear plant that blew up!

Bottom line if a nation has a falling population then it is dying which translates into economic stagnation and worse a permanent depression given an ageing population. We see this in Japan which IS DYING, The Yen in a state of collapse which will eventually translate into INFLATION as the cost of imports and hiring foreign labour goes UP ad given the Japans huge debt mountain I doubt Japan can raise interest rates to halt the Yens terminal decline.

US Population Growth Rate

It should not come as any surprise that the US population continues to grow, rebounding strongly from the pandemic pause in immigration which acts as a cushion against the falling fertility rate that currently stands at 1.66 which is below the replacement rate of 2.1 so obviously the gap is being filled by immigrants as is the case with most western nations with a growing population such as Britain which has a fertility rate of 1.55 vs the EU at 1.46 and those that bark the loudest about immigrants Poland and Hungary are dying the fastest not only because they have a low fertility rate but also that many millions of their young have migrated abroad with some 2 million Poles having settled in the UK alone, in total Poland has lost 1/5th of it's population to emigration. Poland as much of Eastern Europe is dying unlike Western Europe which is at the heart of the basket case that is called the European Union.

Anyway immigration continues to bolster the declining US fertility rate and thus the US continues to prosper as a function of a rising population whilst many competitor nations are literally DYING! A fast ageing population has delivered a still born Chinese Empire that just as it was about to break free of US Imperial Stranglehold it starts to literally DIE! Time is running out for China to make a grab for Taiwan before it becomes Japan 2,0 at an accelerated pace.

State Demographics

The big problem with US house price trends is that the US is just so big! Whilst the US as a whole will see a rising population however that rise is not uniform across all states, so whilst this analysis is heading towards a conclusion for rising average house prices that does not mean that house prices will rise in your town, city or state. For instance it appears folk are fleeing the likes of New York and California for Texas and Florida of all places! Which I guess is more of a dream of what Florida once was rather than what it has become i.e. over populated. I strongly suspect that Florida will witness a trend reversal over the coming years as folk flee over crowded Florida for the likes of the Carolinas.

US Housing Market Free Equity

Have you wondered how every so often a huge amount of money apparently appears out of nowhere that completely upends the consensus view.,where most only realise it's significance long after asset prices have reacted to the event, a case in pont being March 2020 when few could understand how stocks were about to enter an epic raging bull market when the worst of the pandemic was yet to materialise. At the time one had clues such as that the governments will print twice the amount they printed before as I wrote long before the start of 2000, that will eventually flow into asset prices and of course experience of been through several cycles of similar events of impending doom inexplicably to most translating into soaring asset prices.

We'll apparently Freddie Mac could be about to blow the dam on the US housing market by unleashing some $16 trillion of 'free equity' many times that sat in money market accounts.

This is how money tends to apparently appear out of nowhere. Why would they do this? For the same they always do, to stop the banks from going bankrupt!

What's going to happen to house prices and stocks when the free equity dam bursts?

US FIXED MORTGAGES LIMITING SUPPLY

No one wants to sell their home and then be forced to re-mortgage their next property at a much higher rate, typically double their current rate i.e. 7% vs 3.5% which acts to restrict the supply of homes coming to the market and thus those that do decide to sell i.e. the mortgage free command a higher price due to lack of supply where in the US 92% of mortgages are fixed unlike the UK where even those with fixed rate mortgage are typically for less than 5 years.

Way back for a whole year from around Mid 2021 to Mid 2022 I repeatedly wrote and replied to whenever asked that this is one of those no brainier moments to fix a mortgage for as long as possible where you lucky folk in the US could lock in a sub 3% rate for as long as 30 years! Whereas in the UK typical number crunched fixes would only extend to about 5 years. You cannot get much more of a no brainier than having rates of under 3% when the inflation rate was rocketing higher where we had a clueless Fed stuck in transitory mode compounding the magnitude of their error with each passing month that they delayed acting resulting in a huge spread of 4% between the inflation rate and the average 30 year mortgage rate by the end of 2021 which was unsustainable as I wrote during 2022. It is totally abnormal for the mortgage rate to be 4% BELOW the inflation rate! And that when measured against the the FAKE CPLIE rate rather than real inflation.

This has not happened this side of 1980. Those expecting US mortgage rates to fall back to sub 3% so they can move house are not going to see that happen, not in our high inflation environment as I expect we are going to see several more WAVES of inflation of which 2022 was just the first wave, it may take another year or so until the next wave starts taking off and thus mortgage rates only have a limited scope to come down to fill the current 7.3% to 3.3% gap, but I doubt we are going to see sub 3% for the remainder of this decade, even sub 5% is going to be a stretch which means all those with 30 year fixes at sub 3% are not going to want to sell and remortgage anytime soon which will act to limit supply of those mortgaged homes for the remainder of this decade.

Though of course this is only one piece of the housing puzzle because as house prices go up then more new homes are built and existing home owners decide to cash in by downsizing.

HOA Nightmare

The Elite via their their Gestapo officers will do their utmost to PREVENT you from getting rich, from capitalising on something as simple and straightforward as owning the home you live in so as to not only survive but prosper from the inflation stealth tax theft as houses cannot be printed, but they have you in their sights via the Home Owners Associations Pandemic! The latest stealth theft to inflict itself on the US housing market and this disease is now also infecting the UK on new builds at least which is another reason to avoid New Builds!

What's the problem?

The problem is Home Owners Association in most part are scam operations, many are outright crooks, spending money raised on homeowners for the benefit of those who manage the associations! Worse even then managed funds that milk investor funds of commissions like the Cathie Woods scam funds where had you invested you will likely be buried before you ever get your money back!

It's bad enough the local governments scam with their property taxes, okay I can live with a 0.5% council tax in the UK, but then there is another bigger layer on top of that in the US, called the Home Owners Association that has grown from nothing over the past 50 years to now have over 60% of US homes fall under its vampire cloak!

It's not just the monthly fees that keep getting ratcheted ever higher it's the FINES that they levy, they really are a Gestapo! i.e. you failed to cut your grass to the right length, right that's a fine! You failed to clear your gutters on time, that's a fine! You have too many cars parked, that's a fine! You have the wrong type of dog, that's a fine!

What happened to the Home of the Free and Land of the Brave! You have been taken over by NAZI's! How the hell did you let this happen!
We in Britain would not put up with any of this garbage, but like I say the virus has spread to the UK, PLEASE in the UK check what you are buying if contemplating buying a NEW BUILD HOME! You do not want to go through what is happening in the US. Luckily in the UK most folk understand that is is BETTER to buy an OLD build then a NEW BUILD! It is taken for granted that an older house will be better, bigger, more robust, stood the test of time, not these flimsy tiny pieces of crap! That is the main difference between the UK and and the US, we value older properties, where at the exact opposite of the spectrum is Japan, where folk won't buy a house that has already been lived in, they would rather demolish and rebuild then buy an existing home, hence there are many hundreds of thousands of abandoned homes rotting away in Japan because of this mental illness towards lived in homes.

Bottom line they don't want ordinary folk to prosper from the INFLATION, they will seek to STEAL your WEALTH. So it's bad enough with property taxes and cost of living shooting through the roof because of Global Warming, added to that are the vultures called HOA's circling to swoop down and steal your EARNINGS to make living in a community a nightmare.

In the UK your home is your castle, god forbid anyone who picks a fight with a UK homeowner, yes we have covenants that the builders put in decades ago when the houses were built but you know with the passage of time they tend to erode to nothing as builders go bust, in fact any change that has been in effect for more than 20 years can no longer be reversed, so in the UK it's a case of softly, quietly people making changes to their home without a peep out of anyone, after all the only possible Gestapo is your neighbour who has likely done similar themselves.

in the US you have let the Nazis take control of your housing market. I think HOA's for HOUSES is INSANE! So I would NOT buy a property that is in a HOA, which is now going to make it very difficult to buy a home in the US because 60% are now controlled by HOA Nazis.

I am sure I will get comments such as my HOA is great, fantastic etc... You have to understand the direction of travel, yes they may all start of good and dandy but the direction of travel is towards control freak Nazism, where you can't sneeze without getting fined as many poor unsuspecting folks are increasingly finding out.

You want be FREE, then forget about HOA's they are another mechanism aimed at enslaving the population. Worse still these Nazis can take your home away from you! They can levy fines and charges against your property so that when you come to sell your property it becomes time to pay the HOA Nazis. Imagine the stress of living in a home that is gradually having an increasing amount of made up fines levied against it right to the point they foreclose on you and then BUY your home for PEANUTS! Good luck in trying to sue HOA's because they have deep pockets and experienced management companies behind them, I mean if you can't afford to pay the fines then how are you to afford to pay for a lawyer?

You have a city government, why the hell do you need another mini government to dictate what you can and cannot do! Yes this is the problem when you build high maintenance neighbourhoods in the desert, which global warming will devastate!

The way things are going YOU WILL OWN NOTHING! It is by DESIGN! Slaves will only be allowed to RENT as Institutional Investors continue to hoover up homes across the US because a. They get rental income and b. They know houses cannot be printed. Which is why everyone's no1 priority should be to OWN the HOME you LIVE in.

I imagine if I lived in the US, I would be in that odd big house that does not fit in with the rest as everyone else cow tows to the HOA nazis whilst I would damn well make sure mine isn't an HOA House, yes it will probably be a lot older then the others but that would be a good thing!

This is also a warning to those contemplating moving vast distances that the grass is not always Greener i.e. there is a reason why their aren't many foreigners migrating to Japan it's because it would be a a lot worse country to live in compared to where you already are! So whilst we can fantasize about living in the likes of sunny Florida, the metrics are screaming YOU ARE GOING TO REGRET MOVING TO FLORIDA even from a a neighbouring state let alone from the likes of the UK, Global warming consequences are already hitting Florida hard!

And don't think if you live in a climate 'safe' zone you are not going to get hit with premium hikes because insurers will raise rates across the board to subsidise the loss making areas where all the damage is being done.

At the end of the day the reason why most ordinary folk are getting poorer is INFLATION!
INFLATION does NOT EFFECT THE RICH! A rich person does not eat 100 times more than a poor person. A rich person always prioritise value else they would not be rich, where the no1 priority is to CAPITALISE ON INFLATION by investing in assets that are leveraged to money printing, such as in good stocks, good housing and good crypto's i.e. that which cannot be easily printed.

I try to investigate how the other half live outside of the MSM bubble, which usually involves me watching hours of youtube videos during the week, not on markets, stocks, crypto's or the economy, because the likes of CNBC cartoon network and econofools are clueless! What I watch is the experience of REAL PEOPLE! To try and get a glimpse of what is actually going on because I and probably most Patrons live in our bubbles, were we have seen our portfolios rocket by typically 50% over the past year or so all whilst the masses are quietly suffering, given that they are wage slaves with few assets to capitalise on inflation as they have been conned into becoming wage slaves, fooled into believing the degrees they have spent countless thousands of dollars and years studying are worth a mere fraction of what they think they are worth and it's going to get a lot worse given that AI is already making human labour obsolete.

There has got to be some sort of REAL revolution brewing out there, else most ordinary folk are in for a nightmare existence where no matter how hard they work it won't be enough to keep their head above water.

Read My 3 Guides that not only suggest what one should do to gain financial freedom but just as importantly what NOT to do! As the system is designed to turn everyone and everything, even governments into SLAVES to the Elite!

Understand this Elite use misdirection to direct the anger of the masses away from themselves to escape goats such as migrants. All of this debate in the US focused on migrants at the border is a load of bollox act of misdirection away from those who are STEALING the wealth of ordinary americans, it's not the migrants who are buying up all of the housing stock pricing ordinary folk out of the housing market from ever being able to buy a home, it's the elites buying up all of the assets with printed money for the slave population to rent for life!

Florida Hurricanes

Imagine living in a state where every once in a while you have to pack up and move out because of a hurricane evacuation warning! People who don't live in hurricane areas don't know how lucky they are but instead dream of moving to hot, sunny, bug infested Florida! So no the grass is not always greener! Definitely not in Florida which has seen a population explosion over the past 50 years from 3 million to 23 million! What's the odds the infrastructure can't match the huge rise in population i.e. expect huge traffic jams and lack of access to facilities taken for granted elsewhere.

I visited Florida some 25 years ago, and it was great and CHEAP! Motels were about $25 a night, I doubt it's going to be so cheap and cheerful today, the populations grown too fast, and then we have global warming adding it's burden to the state, I can imagine a time in the not too distant future when most of Florida is abandoned, so if you live in Florida then I don't need to tell you, you already know because you are already living the nightmare that worsens with each passing year, clinging on to hope that things won't get any worse, whilst those thinking of moving to Florida, DON'T! You will soon come to regret it when reality hits home! No doubt Florida is great if you are rich, as will be anywhere in the US, but if you are not rich then it will be a nightmare.

Last year Florida got hit by 3 major hurricanes - Nicole, Ian and Fiona which resulted in state wide damage! Not just coastal Florida but state wide! Florida illustrates the impact of Global Warming is RIGHT NOW! And Not in some 30 years time and it's going to get worse with each passing year.

`It's not just cities that could get abandoned in the face of Cat 6 storms making landfall but whole states could be abandoned as it is no longer being economically viable to rebuild destroyed infrastructure and at the top of the list of states that could be abandoned sits Florida.

The problem is economic! Who wants to live in a state that continuously experiences storm damage that results in sky high repair and maintenance costs whilst at the same time insurance is increasingly hard to get, and not only that but that it could take months even years to get a payout so as to enable one to rebuild.

What's that? You'll save money by not insuring? Good luck with trying to get mortgage without insurance! Yes one could self insure But that is only really viable if one lives in a LOW RISK AREA. Self insuring in a hurricane zone is a recipe to for even a rich person to soon go broke! So after doing the math, you don't want to live in Florida no matter who good it looks. Maybe a rental, but definitely not worth the the risk of ever stronger storms making landfall.

And say even if your home is located in a relatively safe pocket of Florida that does not mean you won't share the burden of the storms via high property taxes and increased cost of living, especially after a major storm as prices sky rocket for materials and repair contractors. So even if your home is not hit by a storm, you won't be able to afford to maintain the property especially in terms of meeting the insurers long list of requirements else face being dropped by the insurer.

You want to know how whole cities get to be abandoned?

A heated, energised atmosphere means get ready for the age of the cat 6 storms hitting the gulf coast!

Folks still have time to ACT because once it happens it will be too late, the value of houses in areas in the line of fire of Cat 6 Hurricane will crash in value as the cost of living in such areas soars that and good luck on getting insurance at any price!

Cat 5 storms are bad enough, Cat 6 is beyond catastrophic, city destroying events! And I dread to even imagine the the magnitude of damage a Cat 7 storm would do, it would literally be apocalyptic!

So get ready for Cat 6 storms to make landfall on the Gulf coast! What then for home insurance?

Better to act now then after the fact when everyone starts discounting the future of more such Cat 6 storms, it doesn't take an hurricane expert to figure out that the further inland AND higher elevation the safer the property should be from the climate storms.

So distance from the coast + height above sea level is your margin of safety. That and beware of the nearby rivers because the storm surge will carry up those rivers far many tens of miles inland.

So Florida is definitely one state where it is better to rent than buy due to all of the exploding climate change risks.

Rentals Crisis

Rentals are definitely in a crisis!

Most people will remain confused as to why despite working hard and earning more they keep falling further behind as I elaborated why HGR guides, the West and then much of the rest of the world crippled itself by changing the role of women from being mothers to workers, you thought you were going to double your incomes? You were WRONG! All you did was double the number of slave workers and thus halved the incomes in real terms. Only problem now is that you also have to pay for childcare and neither parent gets to see much of their kids! And so now we have single parent households suffering because they are living in a two worker household system! When in the 70's and 80's the system was for a one worker household. Welcome to the Matrix designed to enrich the rich at the expense of the wage slaves.

And now we have the trangenderism on top! The ultimate divide and rule! Gone is the power of the working man, in comes rainbow BS where everyone is their own group isolated from the rest. It's as if AI has already taken over and ruling over the human slave population who are busy fighting amongst themselves to realise the quiet takeover allowed to happen because it further enriches the elite.

It's only when one sits and ponders the magnitude of the INFLATION FRAUD that one truly appreciates the lengths to which the elites have gone to enslave the masses, to the extent that they paint themselves as the good guys, Musk the good buy, Bezos the good guy, Gates the Good guy! NO NOT GOOD! EVIL! You don't get to be worth $100 billion by being a good guy! Using their MSM toilet paper so as to focus the fury of the angry masses on anyone other than themselves! Such as to blame all of societies woes on the migrants! Yeah those with the least power in society should be the focus of your anger and rage and not those who actually have taken control of your nations WEALTH and POWER! and who are SQUEEZING every penny out of you that ends up in their bank accounts.

So owning the home you live in is still probably one of the few no brainers for most folk because even though all of the fees will also go up, still the value of your home should increase by a greater amount then the fees charged on your home ownerships. For instance property taxes in the US roughly average 1% of the home values, which is far less than one can expect ones homes to increase by on average. Though the state by state range is quite wide i.e. Hawaii is 0.27% whilst New Jersey is 2.33%, with Florida is in the middle at 0.82% which I imagined would be higher up the list. Whilst in the UK property taxes are usually less then 0.5% i.e. I calc mine at about 0.45%.

Affordable Mobile Homes No Longer Exist

Even so called Affordable mobile homes are no longer affordable! Why? Because of the cost of RENTING the lots where the mobile homes are situated, this also means that they are UNSELLABLE. Which illustrates how the cost of living crisis impacts home owners, that is making homes worthless due to the cost of ownership on an ongoing basis.

This is what happens when the Elite own everything as the masses are priced out of ownership through a multitude of mechanisms where the price of the homes are that which the Elites in parcels of hundreds of homes trade between themselves.

Unlike business folk, most workers cannot easily increase their earnings to match the rise in the cost of living. So workers are being forced to work until they drop, No RETIREMENT because retirement income won't keep pace with the rising cost of living.

Who is Buying All the Houses?

Research by JBRC gives insight into who is buying US single family homes for investment where contrary to expectation it isn't Wall Street. The vast majority of investment buys are small holder Mom and Pops for probably their retirement i.e. of 25% of portfolios of under 10 homes, 15% are being bought up by small landlords, where the big portfolio buyers typically range from 1% to 4% of homes.

Still the trend illustrates that there is a constant diminishing supply of family homes that since 2021 has shot higher from 20% to 25% of available supply which is more than enough to continue to put an upward squeeze on prices, given an extra 5% apparent increase in demand. Thus even if State governments acted to restrict larger buyers from hovering up supply in reality it will only make marginal difference to supply.

Commercial Property Capitulation?

Whilst US residential properties are trading at new all time highs the same cannot be said for commercial property that has shown a widening divergence to US house prices since the end of 2022.

So whilst the mainstream media is focused on looking in the rear view mirror by blindly continuing to peddle the line of with how bad things are for commercial real estate, the facts are that such divergences tend to present opportunities so either residential property falls or commercial property rises so as to bridge the gap. And given the inflationary environment, and that other assets such as stocks are soaring, then we could be looking at the US commercial real estate's capitulation moment. as the opposite of what most are expecting transpires over the next 12 months.

This analysis will conclude in part 3.

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Most Recent Analysis - Stock Market Trend Forecast Sept 2024 to Jan 2025

CONTENTS

• The Correction Window

• US Interest Rate Cut Incoming

• Stock Market 2024 Road Map

• Stock Market and Presidential Elections

• September the Weakest Month of the Year

• Stock Market Trend Forecast Sept to Jan 2025

• Stocks Bull Market Big Picture

• 2027 Destiny with a Bear Market

• The AI Mega-trend is EXPONENTIAL

• Why AI WILL Kill Jobs - The Robots Are Coming

• AI Means Rendering in Real Time

• AI Stocks Portfolio

• INFLATION MEGA-TREND Tsunami Waves Current State

• GBP Bull Market Trend

• US House Prices

• US Housing Stocks Current State

• UK House prices

• Presidents are Puppets on a String

• US Presidential Election 2024

• Bitcoin $60k

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28th August 2024 - Nvidia Earnings vs Stock Market Correction Window

5th August 2024 - Panic in the Air As Stock Market Correction Delivers Deep Opps in AI Tech Stocks.

30th July 2024 - Dubai Deluge - AI Tech Stocks Q2 Earnings Correction Opportunities

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By Nadeem Walayat

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Copyright © 2005-2024 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 35 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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