The God of Trade War vs Stock Market

Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2025 May 21, 2025 - 11:04 PM GMT

The Arms Dealer in Chief is back from visiting the son the always wanted, was met with news of a Moody's debt downgrade, states that there are no trade deals and will be sending trade war letters out with new tariff rates..... Here we go again! At least folk have had a good opp to trim to increase percent cash ahead of the run towards 6000 a break of which would target a new all time high which has remained my base case despite the Trump chaos induced market panic events that we are definitely going to see more of, anyway the rally to date has allowed me to trim my way to 26.3% cash vs a recent low of 16%..

Anyway the higher the stock market goes so will also my percent cash, though it's crypto's more than stocks that I am seeking to sell into the expected final pump (for me anyway) to $120k+ which again has remained my base case for several years now! Though as iterated I have not waited for $120k before pressing the SELL button having already sold far more then I originally invested each time crypto's have pumped during the past 6 months because crypto's are a gamble, rallies driven by pure FOMO and hype, so take the opps to SELL as they come along, as bitcoin could make it all the way to my primary target of $134k vs current $104k, a target folk have had for approaching 2 years to keep focused upon as during 2024's 9 month long correction many were on the verge of giving up, throwing in the towel. Instead my clear message was Bitcoin is targeting 100k+ as the next milestone to be achieved enroute towards my primary target of $134k that I expect will conclude the bitcoin bull market.

What's the tariff rate on Saudi oil? 0%!

I get folk asking me "Nadeem so were not going to see 7000 this year?"

As I often state, there's things one wants to happen and then there's what's most probable, S&P $7000 would be great, but there's this Chaos Machine in the White house that is delivering maximum stock market trend uncertainty, here's a brief sample of the chaos generator -

4th Feb "Today I am putting a 10% tariff on everyone"

4th March - "Today I am doubling the tariff to 20% on GINA"

2nd April - "Today I am increasing the tariff rate on GINA to 103%"

10th April - "GINA now 145%"

12th May - "GINA tariff cut from 145% to 30% for 90 days"

18th May - "There ripping us off, No more trade deals instead I am sending out letters with new tariff rates."

The chaos is continuous.

Its called committing economic suicide, systematically DESTROYING the US and global economy, S&P 7000? we will be lucky if we don't see 3500!

Good luck with doing technical / fundamental analysis with the chaos machine in the White house, but I'll give it my best shot.

Most will want to first jump to - S&P Trend Forecast May to December 2025

The God of Trade War vs AI Inflation Mega-trend Stock Market 2025

CONTENTS:
The Getting Lucky Rally
The Trump US Debt Downgrade
Trade War Day 105
US Supply Chain Disruption Inflation
US Dollar Bear Market
BOND Market Vigilantes
Trump Regime First Three Months
Trump Regime Next 100 Days
The Technical Analysis Paradox
Sell Rising Prices, Buy Falling Prices
Yen carry Trade unwind...... CONTINUES!
What if the US WINS the Trade War?
Trump Trade War is ACCELERATING the AI Mega-Trend
OIL PRICE SIGNALLING RECESSION
Gold Save Haven
Trends are Made at the Margins
Why The Risk is Always to the Upside!
Extreme Bearish Market Sentiment
S&P 6150 AND 4800
The 50% indicator.
S&P Sector PE Ratios
Presidential Election Cycle - Year 1 Seasonal Trend
Stock Market Deviation Against the Trend Forecast
S&P Trend Forecast May to December 2025
AI Stocks Portfolio
TESLA Rebounds As Musk Retreats from Nazism
Bitcoin Tops Spectrum Analysis
Bitcoin - Betting on One Last Pump
Bitcoin Exit Strategy
MSTR & COINBASE

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Contents
Trumpet of the Apocalypse
The Yen Carry Trade
Bitcoin Brief
US Exponential Budget Deficit
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US Interest Rates
Trade War Unintended Consequences
Trump Tax Cuts
Stock Market's Got Anxiety - Panic Attacks!
Stock Market Volatility
AI Stocks Portfolio current state
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For immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $7 per month, lock it in now at $7 before it rises to $10 per month for new sign-up's. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

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By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Nadeem Walayat has over 35 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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